Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 14, 2024, 07:57:19 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8) 		« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 ... 13
Poll
Question: ^
#1
Yes >90%		  
#2
Yes >80%		  
#3
Yes >70%		  
#4
Yes >60%		  
#5
Yes >50%		  
#6
No >50%		  
#7
No >60%		  
#8
No >70%		  
#9
No >80%		  
#10
No >90%		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 96

Author Topic: Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8)  (Read 11026 times)
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,938


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: August 08, 2023, 02:28:14 PM »
« edited: August 08, 2023, 06:40:37 PM by GeorgiaModerate »


Low income minority voters and non-november elections,  name a more recognizable duo.




Logged
Meatball Slayer
NeverDeSantis
Rookie
**
Posts: 226
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: August 08, 2023, 03:33:41 PM »
“No” wins by at least 15 points (more likely by 20-30).
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,671
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: August 08, 2023, 04:16:46 PM »


It's a high turnout election (for a special),  Issue 1 is going down in flames tonight.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,587
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: August 08, 2023, 04:37:45 PM »
I had a dream last night (yes, seriously) that "No" won 63-37. I don't know if this will be accurate, but it's as arbitrary as any other prediction I could come up with.
Logged
progressive85
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,359
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: August 08, 2023, 04:39:10 PM »
Does anyone else think that "No" will win tonight, but that the yes vote on a pro-choice abortion law in November will fail?
Logged
Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,809
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: August 08, 2023, 04:47:07 PM »
Follow results here beginning at 7:30 ET:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/08/us/elections/results-ohio-issue-1.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc&region=NavBar
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,730
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: August 08, 2023, 04:59:16 PM »
« Edited: August 08, 2023, 05:02:27 PM by Skill and Chance »
Quote from: Super-Size the Freedom Fries on August 08, 2023, 04:39:10 PM
Does anyone else think that "No" will win tonight, but that the yes vote on a pro-choice abortion law in November will fail?

If it was being held in November 2024 with Trump turnout, maybe, but odd year turnout favors the left position, especially on a social issue, so I expect it to pass. 

However, if it's close-ish and OH keeps getting more conservative I could see it eventually getting repealed in a presidential year down the line.  OH R's could schedule a pro-life referendum on R presidential primary day in a year when the D primary is uncontested.
Logged
progressive85
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,359
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: August 08, 2023, 04:59:53 PM »
Results too at Washington Post for those locked out of NYT: https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/2023/ohio-issue-1/
Logged
Benjamin Frank
Frank
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,066


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: August 08, 2023, 05:17:04 PM »
Livestream


The polls close in just over an hour.

From the 1972 election, for some reason Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana and Tennessee all have/had early closing times.

As an aside, in the 1972 election, Nixon's campaign manager thought that McGovern would win two states: Massachusetts and West Virginia. He was a pessimist.
Logged
xavier110
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,565
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: August 08, 2023, 05:38:09 PM »
It’s going to get annihilated. Wouldn’t be surprised if no hits upper 60s/70s.

Something like uniform No among Ds, 3-1 No from indies, 2-1 Yes or 50/50 for Rs.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,938


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: August 08, 2023, 05:46:06 PM »


Big Madison vs Milwaukee vibes here, but it makes sense since this is not a regular November election and it's not an issue that has a immediately direct impact.
Logged
Storr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,279
Moldova, Republic of


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: August 08, 2023, 06:23:04 PM »
« Edited: August 08, 2023, 06:26:31 PM by Storr »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on August 08, 2023, 05:46:06 PM


Big Madison vs Milwaukee vibes here, but it makes sense since this is not a regular November election and it's not an issue that has a immediately direct impact.

If only Green Bay was the Cincinnati of Wisconsin, the state might be lean D instead of a tossup.

Edit: The Green Bay area is beautiful by the way, definitely worth a visit in the summertime.
Logged
soundchaser
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,558


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.26

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: August 08, 2023, 06:39:44 PM »
No is leading in Hocking County with ~40% of the vote counted. It’s early yet, but that’s not a good result for Yes.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,852


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: August 08, 2023, 06:39:56 PM »

Logged
It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,021


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: August 08, 2023, 06:40:13 PM »
My friend is a poll worker in Cuyahoga County. She says turnout was “incredible”. Presumably she would be doing it near CWRU.
Logged
Minnesota Mike
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,116


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: August 08, 2023, 06:40:22 PM »
It's only the early votes yada yada yada but No is getting 83% of the vote in Franklin county with 1/4 of the vote in. This is going to be a blowout.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,938


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: August 08, 2023, 06:41:53 PM »
The gap between the EV and Eday would have to be large even for what we have come to expect, looking just at the results in Republican counties. Only thing that should matter now is the margins.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,982


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: August 08, 2023, 06:44:49 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 08, 2023, 06:39:56 PM



Suggests a narrow No advantage, based on uniform swing...
Logged
Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,809
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: August 08, 2023, 06:46:03 PM »
Projection:

No
228,281   +72.4%72.4%
Yes
87,167   +27.6%27.6
Logged
Sestak
jk2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,284
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: August 08, 2023, 06:46:12 PM »
Lmfao
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,761
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: August 08, 2023, 06:47:01 PM »
Not these pathetic counties on the Indiana border that are voting yes
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,685
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: August 08, 2023, 06:50:00 PM »
« Edited: August 08, 2023, 06:53:02 PM by riverwalk3 »
Looking more like a 15-20 point win for No rather than 24 like I initially predicted.

Yes is getting crushed in the East Ohio working class areas that are rapidly trending right.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,631
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: August 08, 2023, 06:56:07 PM »
Feels like a re-run of the collective bargaining referendum.
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,685
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: August 08, 2023, 06:57:40 PM »
Logged
Atlas Force
mlee117379
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,328
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: August 08, 2023, 06:58:15 PM »
Quote from: riverwalk3 on August 08, 2023, 06:57:40 PM


Damn this early
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 ... 13  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 12 queries.