More on a Hillary Comback [Michael Barone does the delegate math]

[Torie]

You can read Michael Barone's latest blog on his delegate math calculations here.

Hillary still has s reasonable shot, provided she can stop the erosion. The increasing economic worries might help her, as the economically stressed who aren't black start to worry more about where their next government subsidy might come from, than getting a vicarious high from rhetorical inspiration and symbolism.

[Torie]

I was emailed a nice spreadsheet, and did some homework. Using Barone's figures where he reveals him, and for the balance of the jurisdictions, excluding Guam and Puerto Rico (and Hawaii and Wisconsin), and working with Green Papers and going CD by CD, I came up with some elected pledged delegate totals for the balance of the states. I assumed various statewide percentages (2-1 Obama in Mississippi, 60% Obama in NC, a narrow Obama win in Oregon, Clinton winning Indiana and Pennsylvania by 14% each, Kentucky Hillary by 15%, etc.

Given the above assumptions, the delegate numbers were 508 Clinton, 449 Obama. Obama gets some advantage from black CD's getting more delegates, and a fair number of CD's having an even number of delegates, which makes in unlikely with a few exceptions that there will be anything other than an even split. And in other places, like across   Western Pennsylvania, there were a lot of 3 Clinton delegates, 2 Obama delegates CD's. With Clinton winning the state by 57%., the delegate split is 82 Clinton, 76 Obama, hardly an exciting firewall for Clinton.

By the way, given Pennsylvania, I suspect Barone gives too many delegates to Clinton in Ohio, but I did not run the numbers myself.

In any event, Barone might be right: Puerto Rico is "the place."

[Torie]

Actually I assumed 57% margins for Hillary in Pennsylvania and Indiana, having rechecked my spreadsheet. In Indiana that gives Hillary 39 delegates, Obama 33. Hillary is screwed by a  lot of CD's that award 4 delegates, so it will be 2 to each. And then Obama picks up a 3 delegates  net in the two heavily black districts (in CD-1 I give Obama 4 delegates, Hillary 2), and Hillary picks up 3 delegates net in the remaining CD's that have 5 delegates (3 to Hillary, and the Indiananpolis CD-9 to Obama). The 3 CD's with 4 delegates I award two delegates to each. So the CD allocation in Indiana is one delegate net to Clinton, while having won the state by 57%. She picks another 4 delegates net from the statewide allocation (and I see I am off a delegate, whatever).

One other thing: Hillary getting 60% rather than 57% in Pennsylvania might net her at most another 10 delegates (4 statewide, and maybe she can squeeze another 6 out of the CD's being very generous to her, but it will be tough to get that many. When most non inner city CD's get 4 delegates, or 5 delegates, the math just does not work. She will have to carry most to all of the  Philly Suburban CD's to do it.)

[Torie]

Here are the Penn CD's. I didn't do Ohio, I just used Barone's numbers.

1   5   2
2   7   2
3   2   3
4   2   3
5   2   2
6   4   2
7   3   4
8   3   4
9   1   2
10   2   2
11   2   3
12   2   3
13   4   3
14   3   4
15   3   2
16   2   2
17   2   2
18   2   3
19   2   2
   23   32
      
   76   82

[Torie]

I assumed 60% for Hillary in Kentucky by the way, and Green papers loses 3 delegates in its CD totals, so I gave Hillary 2 and Obama 1 as to the missing 3 delegates.

1   2   3
2   2   2
3   5   2
4   2   3
5   2   2
6   2   4
   7   10

   22   26
   23   28

I didn't spend much time on WV. I have Hillary 18 delegates, and Obama 10.

[Torie]

I doubt that 5-2 will be happening in KY-03, even though I don't know the proportional splits.

I expect Kentucky, numbers-wise, to be a lot like Oklahoma, except without the Edwards protest vote.  That doesn't mean the voting patterns will be the same, however.

You don't think the vote in CD-3 will be two thirds black, or close to it? And some upscale Pubbies might show up to vote their displeasure with Hillary. I think my allocation is reasonable, but hey if you want to give Hillary another delegate, go for it.

[Torie]

The district is only a fifth black. Obviously this'll be higher in a Democratic primary, but not two thirds.

I see that you are correct. So make it 35% black or so. So I accept Obama 4-3.  He might get close to 5-2, but close is no cigar.

[Torie]

I doubt that 5-2 will be happening in KY-03, even though I don't know the proportional splits.

I expect Kentucky, numbers-wise, to be a lot like Oklahoma, except without the Edwards protest vote.  That doesn't mean the voting patterns will be the same, however.

You don't think the vote in CD-3 will be two thirds black?

Well, CD-03 is about 19% black.  Kentucky is a closed primary, so how much of the "affluent" Louisville suburbs are Republican.  And essentially, how much of the rest of the CD is registered Democrat, considering that statewide registration numbers are about 57% Democrat.

I didn't know it was a closed primary. I concede an extra delegate to Clinton. I was wrong, wrong, wrong! 

[Torie]

A couple of points, and a question:

1 - I suspect Kentucky will be much uglier for Obama than a 15% loss - outside of the black areas, I can see a map that looks a lot like western Virginia or Tennessee.  Bill was particulary liked in this state.  Same goes with WV, though you didn't mention it.  I am still doing the math on Indiana, fwiw, but I remember the state is still back in the 1950s.

2 - Obama won't get 60% in NC, at least not if it's contested.  Not in the NC I remember.  Sure, it's got the same black population as Virginia, but the white population is quite different.

What is the breakdown on the PA CDs, or the OH CDs for that matter?

NC has its pockets of higher income whites in the Triangle (and a lot of them are Democrats), and a fair number of Yankee retirees along the coast. I don't think 60% is far off, and if it is 57% or something, you are talking about 5 delegates max. The CD's work for Hillary in NC. I have Obama 65 delegates in NC, Clinton 50.

[Torie]

Ok, I have been educated and persuaded. 3 more delegates to Clinton in Kentucky, 31-20 versus 28-23.  You can see just how thick the water here is to swim through to make any progress in changing the totals much.

I did not realize the 62.5% rule. That might mean another 6 delegates or so to Hillary in Pennsylvania. She should get that outside of Pittsburg in Western Pennsylvania, and in the Holden and Kanjorski CD's, and in CD 10 perhaps. She won't get that in Eastern Pennsylvania. I will leave it to Sam Spade to revise and extend given that!  I'm tired.

In the Philly suburbs, a huge number of RINO's have switched to Dem registration, so upper middle class whites will rule. But the Jewish vote matters in a couple of the CD's, and could make a difference if they go to Hillary by a clear margin, and give her a couple of extra delegates.