More on a Hillary Comback [Michael Barone does the delegate math]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And in other places, like across Pennslyvania in the West, there were a lot of 3 Clinton delegates, 2 Obama delegates. With Clinton winning the state by 56%., the delegate split is 82 Clinton, 76 Obama, hardly an exciting firewall for Clinton.

Ouch, wouldn't that disappoint Phil.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And in other places, like across Pennslyvania in the West, there were a lot of 3 Clinton delegates, 2 Obama delegates. With Clinton winning the state by 56%., the delegate split is 82 Clinton, 76 Obama, hardly an exciting firewall for Clinton.

Ouch, wouldn't that disappoint Phil.

I'll be content with Hillary winning with about 60%.

That's not going to happen. Even the Quinnipiac poll with her up 16 doesn't have her anywhere near that (and this is before any actual campaigning.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I read the Baron article now, and it's based on two assumptions even he admits are unlikely.

1-Hillary gains a 14 delegate edge in Wisconsin. I don't even see how that's plausible.
2-Hillary wins twice as many delegates in Texas as Obama. Since Texas' apportionment GREATLY favors Obama, she'd have to win MORE than 2/3 of the vote in order to pull this off, possibly as high as 75% (I haven't done the math). This really just isn't going to happen.

Ohio's the only real troublesome state for Obama. Pennsylvania isn't the immense firewall she and Phil wish it would be as pointed out.

I don't think Hillary should get too excited about Indiana either, the state is almost the same as Missouri demographically except whites are more Republican, meaning blacks take up a higher percentage of the Democratic electorate. Obama probably can't win it, but Hillary's edge in delegates won't be higher than single digits.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well obviously Indiana is a far more Republican state than Missouri, just look at the 2004 numbers. So whites must be more Republican.

But here's something else to look at, the CD factors:

IN-1: Obvious Obama country. The blacks in Gary + the affluent Chicago suburbia. Oh yeah, it's CHICAGO suburbia too. The only problem is its 6 delegates, an even number, but Obama might manage to net 4.
IN-2: Blacks in South Bend, but not much else. Hillary wins 3-2.
IN-3: Awful for Obama, but only 4 delegates. Almost certainly a 2-2 split.
IN-4: Obama-friendly Indianapolis exurbs (though they have few Democrats), but it's only 4 delegates, so 2-2.
IN-5: Ditto
IN-6: You got the college town of Muncie but that probably isn't enough. 3-2 Hillary.
IN-7: Inner-city Indianapolis. Enough blacks for Obama to win, but enough whites to prevent a huge victory. But it's 5 delegates, so 3-2 Obama.
IN-8: Ugh. Bad. 3-2 Hillary.
IN-9: There's Bloomington but that's it. 3-2 Hillary.

That equals only net 2 delegates for Hillary, and if Obama can do well enough to get 4 in IN-1, he'll cancel that advantage out. And there's only 25 delegates at large, so even a 60-40 result in favor of Hillary gives her only 5 more delegates. So we're looking at +7 for Hillary best case. Not as good for her as it should be demographically.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A major problem I see for Obama in Pennsylvania is that it is a closed Democratic Primary -- no independents allowed.  That cuts off an important part of his coalition.  Hillary is stronger among self-identified Democrats.  Given that the demographics of the state favor her and the Gov. Rendell will be running his machine for her she has to feel good about her chances.  Whatever happens with the state delegate count, a strong victory in a key state like Pennsylvania will definitely be noticed the Super Delegates.

I would basically see Obama taking three 3 CD at best, probably 2.  I could actually see Hillary winning some of hers in Central PA by greater than 60%.

A basic slight edge for Obama in WI, TX reasonably strong for Clinton, and a large victory in OH.  PA could be a Clinton blowout.  On April 23, 2008, I expect Clinton will have be leading in elected delegates (possibly even elected delegates excluding FL/MI).

If Clinton wins Texas by 8 points (like current polls), that's just not going to happen, due to the malapportionment of Hispanic areas and the caucus. I actually think the most likely scenario is Clinton winning Texas but Obama winning the majority of delegates.

But Clinton needs more than a victory in Texas to catch up, she needs a huge victory in terms of delegates, like 60% or so, which would require winning the Texas primary 2:1 and also winning the caucus. Very unlikely.