Terrible numbers for Duckworth, good ones for Feingold.
Agreed. The political dynamics of Illinois should be rocketing her ahead.
Not necessarily at this stage of the game. Kirk has a long, hard road ahead of him to keep this seat, even if the Republicans win the presidency by a significant margin.
Remember that Mark Pryor was still ahead of Tom Cotton at this point in the 2014 campaign. Pryor didn't even end up breaking 40 in November.
I am very concerned about Kirk's ability to campaign effectively for this seat. Have you watched any of his speeches lately? It really looks like that stroke has taken a toll on him. I love the guy if you can't tell, but I really have my doubts.
If I were a liberal, I'd be more worried about Feingold. Sure, he's leading by a ton now, but a lot of that is due to name recognition (although I'm sure he'd be leading anyway, but not by this much). Wisconsin is not as blue a state as Illinois.
Kirk's fortune will have a lot to do with downstate and the collar counties, which vote purple or even blue in presidential elections but bright red in statewide ones. He must win at least 96-97 out of the state's 102 counties to win, period.
