Sanders wins Iowa - 2016 TL

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CNN PROJECTION - Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders wins Iowa Caucuses
Blitzer - A day has already passed since the polls closed in Iowa, and we can only now call the winner of the Democratic Caucuses. CNN can now project that Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has won, defeating former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a stunning upset. Right now, it seems like Sanders has won 50.1% of the state delegate equivalents to 49.3% for Secretary Clinton. This is a stunning upset, considering that only a few months ago everyone thought that Clinton would be easily nominated, and no one gave Bernie Sanders any chance of winning. This is very embarrassing for Hillary Clinton, who gave a victory speech last night when it was thought she would eke it out, and it is bound to give her negative headlines going into New Hampshire.

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Clinton abandons New Hampshire as Sanders surges, Democrats panic

Sources close to Congressional Democrats on Capitol Hill and to the Democratic National Committee report that there is panic within their ranks at the momentum of Senator Sanders. After his surprise win in Iowa, he surged in polls to the point where he is leading by over 20% in New Hampshire and is in striking distance nationally. It would seem as if the Clinton camp has decided to stop competing in the next state, New Hampshire, and instead focus on halting the momentum of the self-proclaimed socialist in states with large minority populations like Nevada and South Carolina. Clinton has left New Hampshire for Nevada on February 6th. While the Democratic establishment is scared, the GOP is at least glad that they are not the only ones facing insurgents, given the rise of Trump and Cruz.

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CNN PROJECTION - Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire Primary
Blitzer - We were able to project at poll closing that Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has won the New Hampshire Primary, no surprise given that it was abandoned by the Clinton campaign a few days ago. However, with nearly 100% of the vote in, we can see what a shocking margin he has over the former Secretary. He is leading by no less than 27%, 62.6% to 35.2%. This is a surprisingly big margin that has to worry the Clinton campaign and the Democratic establishment who were already panicking after Iowa.

Tapper - And this comes in a context when Hillary Clinton is in Nevada and will be there until February 20th, trying to stop Sanders there. Most polls show the race there is a dead heat, with some presenting small Clinton leads, others presenting small Sanders leads. The 538 average shows Clinton up by less than 1%. And after tonight, Sanders goes in there with even more momentum. The anxiety at the Clinton HQ must be through the roof.

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Wikileaks leaks shocking DNC emails showing conspiracies against Sanders

On February 16th, just as Clinton and Sanders were fighting in the nail-biting Nevada caucuses, thousands of emails from the servers of the DNC were published by Wikileaks. They show high-ranking officials expressing disdain for the Sanders campaign on numerous occasions and, especially following the Iowa caucuses, plotting ways to stop the Vermont Senator by pushing late modifications in the primary calendar, canceling debates until after Super Tuesday, and pushing important Democratic figures to endorse Hillary Clinton. These leaks have created outrage among Sanders supporters, with Bernie Sanders saying that the establishment is trying to stop his momentum and called on DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz to resign, calls that she has ignored so far. The Clinton campaign has mostly stayed silent but is now privately admitting that Nevada may be lost following these leaks.

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CNN PROJECTION - Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders wins Nevada

Blitzer - So, it is official now. Bernie Sanders has won the third state in a row, in a major blow to the Clinton campaign. According to our exit polls, the DNC leaks have been the decisive factor that tilted the scales for the Vermont socialist. With 95% of the vote in, Sanders has 51.1% and Clinton has 47.7%.

Tapper - For so long, people thought that Clinton would easily win the nomination, but many still do that she will end up on top, but you have to start winning somewhere. Her campaign, which has been shaken to its core by recent developments, seems to think now that South Carolina will be where the momentum of the insurgent will stop. And it might well be, especially as Clinton still has a gigantic advantage in the South, but following the upset tonight, they can not take anything for granted.

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The White House considers dropping its neutrality

According to sources close to the White House, President Obama and his inner circle have started taking the possibility that Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee very seriously, and it caused them great anxiety. While President Obama is still not willing to endorse, many of his Cabinet secretaries and even Vice President Biden consider making their support of the former Secretary public if her campaign is not killed off on Super Tuesday. Similarly, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has started urging Representatives from states coming up in March to endorse Clinton, to mixed success.

Meanwhile, the Clinton campaign is in disarray. Campaign manager Robby Mook has pulled back most resources to protect their Southern firewall, which he believes will deliver victories on Super Tuesday, but other high-ranking aides are criticizing that strategy as short-sighted, given that one can not win the nomination only with the South. And the candidate herself is, according to chatter on Capitol Hill, losing her usual composure and feels as if the nomination is stolen from her again.

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Thank you for all your kind words!

CNN PROJECTION - Former Secretary of State wins South Carolina in a landslide

Blitzer - This was not a surprise, but Hillary Clinton has won South Carolina. Her campaign has been telling us ever since New Hampshire that this is where the Sanders momentum will hit their firewall. And while the Sanders campaign certainly did not expect to win in South Carolina, the margin by which they got beaten disappointed them and it made them worried about Super Tuesday, when many southern states hold their primaries. Clinton has over 68% to just 31% for Sanders, a huge, 37-point margin. She won in every county, although only by 9 votes in Pickens County.

Tapper - And it is important to see where this leaves us in the all-important delegate math. When not including superdelegates, before tonight, Sanders had 58 delegates to 45 for Clinton. Now, Secretary Clinton is leading, narrowly, 81 to 75.

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Sanders campaign braces for Super Tuesday as Clinton anticipates Southern romp

The South Carolina primary landslide, despite what Sanders online supporters expected, restored confidence inside the Clinton campaign and was a cold shower for the leftists getting overconfident. Now, Hillary Clinton anticipates winning all Southern states outside of Oklahoma by big margins, which would put her back in the clear lead even without counting the superdelegates. Sanders on the other hand is bracing for a rather grim Super Tuesday and is trying hard to win all non-southern states. However, they are not losing their confidence, given that Clinton has so far not proven at all that she can win other regions, and they are hoping that she will be clearly defeated in the states coming up in March and April, which will preserve their momentum and keep her on the defensive.

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CNN PROJECTION - Secretary Clinton wins 8 out of 13 contests on Super Tuesday and most delegates

Blitzer - It appears that on Super Tuesday, the so-called Southern firewall has delivered. Clinton won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia as well as the US territory of American Samoa. Most of her victories were not close and were called at poll closings. Sanders has done well in contests outside of the South. He won Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and his home state of Vermont. While Clinton is ahead now in the delegate count by a more significant margin, the Sanders camp is quite pleased with their performance, saying it could have been much worse and looking ahead to further contests...

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Clinton campaign distraught with its performance on Super Tuesday

Many would not understand why would Hillary Clinton and her aides be disappointed with what happened on Super Tuesday. She won most contests and is now ahead of Sanders 552 to 471. However, they view it as a missed opportunity to stop the Vermont socialist in his tracks. Instead, the South delivered but not at the degree they expected as Sanders showed some strength in some of the states, and the momentum of his campaign seems to only be ever-growing. He is now ahead of Clinton nationally and she is the one in need of a surge. The sudden turn of events has left Democrats in Washington numb and many are already pointing fingers at Clinton behind closed doors as the main arena moves to the Manufacturing Belt, where Clinton has a lead but Sanders sees his path to the nomination. But it would seem as if it is just a theme of 2016, as, on the Republican side, Donald Trump has won most states too and the establishment is at a loss of what to do to stop him.

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I think Sanders will narrowly edge out Clinton for the nomination and beat Trump in the general in this timeline.

That 400+ superdelegate advantage will not be easy to overcome through

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CNN PROJECTION - Clinton wins Louisiana, Sanders wins Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine

Blitzer - It is clear now that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will win another state in the Deep South while Bernie Sanders will win caucuses in the Plains and in north-eastern Maine. This narrows the gap in pledged delegates from 81 to 63, however, Clinton is still in the lead. So far, the former Secretary has not won anywhere outside of the South, but she hopes to do that a few days from now in Michigan, a state in which Sanders has been putting a lot of effort despite Clinton leading by low double digits.

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Clinton shines in Flint Democratic Debate

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, perhaps feeling that the nomination is getting away from her, has had her best debate performance in this electoral cycle. She appeared compassionate and understanding of the troubles of the people from Flint and proposed very documented solutions. She emphasized her more populist ideas and how they are more practical than what Sanders is proposing, as well as used any opportunity to warn that Sanders may be unelectable even against Trump, a worry many liberal Democrats share with her. Post-debate polls have indicated a rise in her support nationally, passing over Sanders once again if narrowly.

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Thank you so much for the map!

CNN PROJECTION - Sanders upsets Clinton in Michigan, former SoS predictably wins MS

Blitzer - Against all odds and despite a stellar performance in the pre-primary debate by his opponent, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has pulled off a stunning upset and won Michigan by over 7 points. The exit polls do indicate a late shift towards Clinton, which means the polls were wrong from the very start. The Clinton campaign is once again in disarray and is betting everything on the primaries on March 15th. They have sent Hillary Clinton on a rescue mission in Ohio and Illinois, worried the Michigan primary signals problems in the entire Manufacturing Belt. However, Clinton did increase her delegate lead tonight with a hefty win in Mississippi. Right now, the race is 696 pledged delegates for Clinton to 627 for Sanders.

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Clinton wins Northern Mariana Islands caucus, nets 2 delegates

Shocking Wikileaks report - Flint debate questions were leaked to Clinton by Donna Brazile

Wikileaks struck again today, March 12th, with a devastating report for the Clinton campaign. According to the e-mails that they leaked, CNN contributor Donna Brazile leaked all questions and possible follow-ups from the Flint Democratic debate to Hillary Clinton, which explains her unexpectedly good performance. Utterly embarrassed by the story, CNN ceased all collaborations with Brazile and even DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz has thrown her under the bus, in part to stave off ever-growing calls for her own resignation. Sanders has gone full-on attack against Clinton today, openly accusing her of trying to cheat her way to the nomination, a feeling shared by many voters of various ideologies. Even Democrats on Capitol Hill and the White House have started to pull back their behind-the-scenes support for Clinton, worried that she may be damaged goods. The former Secretary has refused to apologize. Instead, she has been trying to shift the narrative to Wikileaks and how they get their information, so far unsuccessfully.

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I think Sanders will narrowly edge out Clinton for the nomination and beat Trump in the general in this timeline.

That 400+ superdelegate advantage will not be easy to overcome through

If Bernie leads in pledged delegates and the popular vote , it will be very difficult for the Supers to overturn that

I think in another scenario the Democrats may be willing to use the superdelegates to stop Sanders. In this one, the Brazille scandal may have been the nail in the coffin for Hillary Clinton, so much so that even the establishment will not go out of its way to nominate her.

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Sanders sweeps March 15th primaries, wins 4 out of 5 contests

Blitzer - The March 15th primaries have been a huge success for Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. He won Missouri, Illinois, Ohio, and North Carolina. In the latter 2, according to our exit polls, Hillary Clinton would have won had it not been for the leaks surrounding Donna Brazille. The Former Secretary of State has only won Florida. Also concerning for her campaign is the fact that her favorability ratings have collapsed following the leaks among the general electorate and even among Democrats.

Tapper - Yes, Clinton is still leading in the pledged delegate count. She has 1.040 pledged delegates to 980 for Sanders. However, this is still a very big defeat. For example, the loss in North Carolina is stunning, almost comparable to her loss in Michigan. And now, the campaign moves into very friendly territory for Senator Sanders until at least April 19th. Combine that with the loss of support among Democrats in DC and you can see a very bleak picture for Hillary Clinton.

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Clinton campaign to meet and reassess next steps

According to political sources, the Clinton campaign is going to meet in Brooklyn and reassess their next steps. Until now, a huge part of the Clinton strategy was relying on the support of superdelegates, which would have been enough to put the former Secretary over the top according to their models. However, their support, already wavering, has collapsed since the Brazille leaks. Many in the establishment now view scandal-plagued Clinton as almost as unelectable as socialist Sanders. Some in the campaign argue that it would be best for Clinton to drop out now, get vindicated once Sanders loses in November, and come back with a roar against an unpopular Republican incumbent in 2020. Others say that Clinton still has a good shot at winning and the public and politicians will move past the Brazille scandal by the time New York votes. This meeting will settle the dispute once and for all, as Hillary Clinton herself will weigh in.

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Political sources - Michael Bloomberg considers a third-party run

Given that the Democratic Party is likely to nominate an off-the-wall socialist while the Republican favorite is in the eyes of many a quasi-fascist, billionaire and former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg is reportedly considering running a third-party bid for the White House. He hopes to drive the support of moderates in both parties to the best third-party candidacy in recent history. The establishment in both parties is at a loss of what to do in the current situation.

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Clinton to announce next plans at a press conference in New York

After a meeting that lasted hours with all high-ranking aides inside her campaign, it appears as if Hillary Clinton has made her decision on the future of her campaign and she will announce it at a press conference, the first one in a political eternity. Views are split on whether she will drop out and try to run for public office in New York in the next cycle, retire from the spotlight for good or continue fighting in the hope that she can still win the race. Nevertheless, the betting odds for Hillary Clinton being the Democratic nominee have collapsed from slight favorite to clear underdog since March 12th, and so did the view of the media on her chances.

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BREAKING - Hillary Clinton drops out of the race

In a bombshell announcement, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who has been the presumptive Democratic nominee in 2016 and favorite to be the 45th President arguably since Obama was elected, has announced that she will withdraw from the races. In a heartfelt speech, Clinton apologized to all women who she thought were let down by her inability to break the glass ceiling. She thanked all supporters and expressed gratitude for her opportunity to serve the country. However, Clinton did not close the door completely to another run for public office. She did not mention Sanders at all in her speech, but he is now, to the dismay of the Democratic elites and the DNC, the presumptive nominee for the Presidency of the United States. Against whom he will be running was another question.

RCP polling average -
SANDERS 53.8% - TRUMP 39.0%
SANDERS 51% - CRUZ 39.3%
SANDERS 47.8% - KASICH 42.5%

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Trump becomes presumptive Republican nominee after Cruz, Kasich drop out

Blitzer - The 2016 cycle will definitely go down in history as one of the most chaotic and redefining race in American history, probably the most. After Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders became the presumptive Democratic nominee in March, now on May 4th, after the Indiana primary, we can officially say that businessman Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee for the Presidency of the United States. It is very likely that Michael Bloomberg will launch a third-party bid in the next few days, now that both parties have nominated what he thinks are extreme candidates. Jill Stein has dropped out in April, throwing the full support of the Green Party behind the Democratic nominee, however, disgruntled Utah Republicans are rumored to run Evan McMullin, and of course, the Libertarians are still in the race. This will probably lead to this election having one of the highest third-party support in history. Now, here is the RCP Average -

General Election Polling - National
Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) - 47,1%
Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY) - 40,2%
Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I-NY) - 8,4%
Former CIA Officer Evan McMullin (R-UT) - 2,5%
Former Governor Gary Johnson (L-NM) - 1,8%

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I think I will switch to POVs when it comes to covering the General Election. If anyone has any suggestions for the format I am open.

Michael Bloomberg

This was the day. After he announced his campaign on The View a few days ago, his advisors told him it would be best to announce his VP nominee as soon as possible to build in the public eye before the conventions. And that he was going to do.

Unfortunately, the crowd was pitifully small and they were in the DC suburbs, where his support should be stronger than that. Eh. Probably Trump that oaf was going to make fun of him on Twitter. Not that it would help him with his failing campaign. Jeez, how did the supposedly stable party system came up with these two lunatics. Trump, who hurt the Republican brand every day with his cheap populism and barely hidden racism. And Sanders, who was openly socialist and was going to destroy the economic system of the country. That was something Michael could not allow.

He put on the best smile he could fake and waved to the excited, through small, crowd. And he started hitting his talking points. His accomplishments as Mayor, his bipartisanship, how bad it was for only two choices to exist. That kind of crap. The crowd was being bored by all of this, so he called Sanders a radical socialist and Trump a dangerous racist. They were cheering again, maybe he was not so bad at giving speeches after all!

He skipped a few paragraphs and went on to announce his running mate so that he could leave that dreadful rally. "So I'm very glad and honored to invite my running mate, and hopefully the next Vice President of the United States, Ohio Governor John Kasich!", he said as Kasich was entering the stage waving to the 200 people or so.

Meh. A fine choice. He wanted Hillary Clinton, badly, as she would have helped a lot with moderate Democrats. And she seemed pretty interested at that. But in the end, worries that she would be forever shunned out of Democratic circles made her reject his generous offers. Oh well...Kasich on the other hand was very willing and also well-known following his primary campaign. He had experience, though not so much as Clinton, and would help with moderates of all stripes.

It probably will not matter in the end. He will spend so much on ads that no one will be able to keep up, he predicted as Kasich was wrapping up his boring speech and they were finally leaving.

INDEPENDENT TICKET FOR THE PRESIDENCY OF THE UNITED STATES, 2016

Former Mayor Michael Rubens Bloomberg (I-NY)/Governor John Richard Kasich Jr. (R-OH)

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Bernie Sanders

From time to time, Bernie still stopped from whatever he was doing and thought about how far he made it. No one gave him a chance at the beginning, not even himself. He thought that for sure he was not going to be the next President, he was just pushing his message out there, maybe move Clinton to the left a little bit. Even as he started surging, they told him he was never going to be the Democratic nominee, that the establishment would stop him somehow. And yet...

It would seem as if Bernie...accidentally...found a lot of anger hidden inside the American society, just like Trump. The people are angry at the billionaires and corporations who were rigging the political process in their favor. And he wholeheartedly agreed with them. Unlike...most other Presidential contenders, he will actually try and make a difference for them. But until then...

The huge crowd that gathered in Philadelphia to witness the announcement of his VP nominee was louder than ever. And he knew that his choice would make them very happy. And many in Washington would be very unhappy. Many in his campaign, even some from the DNC who were giving him unsolicited advice, said he should pick someone who would unify the party, boost his numbers with moderates. Nonsense! Bernie did not win the primaries by compromising his identity, and he will certainly not win the general like that! He was going to pick someone who he felt he could trust to take his movement forward if or once he can not do it himself.

And he was right about something. Once he announced his VP pick, the roars from the crowd were louder than ever.

THE DEMOCRATIC TICKET FOR THE PRESIDENCY OF THE UNITED STATES, 2016

Senator Bernard Sanders (D-VT)/Senator Elizabeth Ann Warren (D-MA)

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Mike Pence

Donald Trump was having a big, big problem. Multiple moderate, or at least sane politicians were turning down his overtures. He just could not find a running mate. Bob Corker, and Joni Ernst, and Marco Rubio, and Susana Martinez, and Cory Gardner, and Shelley Moore Capito and even Ted Cruz. Not to mention Kasich, who was begged by the Trump campaign to join their ticket only to humiliate them and join Bloomberg. Now, they wanted Mike.

Should he accept or not... That was a question he had asked himself for days now. He asked his political allies, he even prayed for finding the right answer. Now, he thinks he has. He knows that winning the Indiana governorship will not be easy, with Trump at the top of the ticket and himself not so popular because of the left wing propaganda against him. And if or when Trump loses, his defeat will be blamed on him, not his running mate. But...

He opened his TV. There, they showed Sanders with a healthy lead over Trump, who was now losing steam to Bloomberg. There were whispers on Capitol Hill that the Republican nominee knows he is losing and that made him depressed, frustrated and addicted to Fox News. And one could see that in his tweets, which got more and more desperate, with non-stop attacks against Elizabeth Warren for her heritage and threats of a gloomy future under a communist regime. Trump was just throwing stuff against the wall, hoping something will stick. And in that, he was losing every moderate Republican, possible Democratic converts and annoying everyone outside a small, loud base.

Did Mike really want to join a campaign in which that crazy socialist would mobilize leftists, Bloomberg would steal moderates while Trump would drown in his own mud? No.