Can the Tories hold a majority in the next general election

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It would be the biggest upset in modern history if they did (and not just in British history).

[CumbrianLefty]

Trying to think of any actual recent examples of the sort of turnaround that would be needed for the Tories to actually *win* (as opposed to stopping Labour winning outright, which remains a possibility even if not a massive one as things stand) Maybe 2005 in Germany wasn't far off, when the CDU was close to blowing a huge lead - partly down to its own carelessness and complacency, but also because whatever else you say about him Schroeder was a terrific campaigner. And the SPD still (just) lost.

Who knows, maybe Sunak will surprise us similarly on the election campaign. But probably not.

[Oryxslayer]

Maybe if people were voting today and today only.

[MasterJedi]

Only if the UK wants to continue its increasing descent into poverty. 20% currently, Torries want to get that over 50% and I’m sure England wants to comply.

[It’s so Joever]

Only if the UK wants to continue its increasing descent into poverty. 20% currently, Torries want to get that over 50% and I’m sure England wants to comply.

To what extent can you blame Tory policies for the current economics situation in the UK and at what point was this inevitable? It’s like when a lot of Republicans kept saying Bidenflation even though the rest of the world was suffering inflation as well.

[rosin]

Can pigs fly?

[CumbrianLefty]

Only if the UK wants to continue its increasing descent into poverty. 20% currently, Torries want to get that over 50% and I’m sure England wants to comply.

To what extent can you blame Tory policies for the current economics situation in the UK and at what point was this inevitable? It’s like when a lot of Republicans kept saying Bidenflation even though the rest of the world was suffering inflation as well.

IMO it is reasonably fair and objective to say "they haven't helped".

[Tintrlvr]

"Can" as in "is there a theoretical possibility of it"? Yes

But it's more likely that they lose every single seat they hold.

At this point the theoretical possibility would require something like "Jeremy Corbyn stages a violent takeover of the Labour Party, executes Keir Starmer" in order to come to fruition.

[Lumine]

Who knows, maybe Sunak will surprise us similarly on the election campaign. But probably not.

He's no John Major, that's for sure. The mere idea of the soapbox would probably leave him terrified.

I also struggle to find a proper example of a government running so far behind and turning things around in the actual campaign. If anything there's way too many examples in the opposite direction of entering the death spiral and only making things worse due to panic (Spanish UCD in 83', Canadian PC in 93'). And even if one concedes that Labor underperformed in 97' given the polls before the campaign, it was still a thumping.

Maybe they successfully rally and approach 200 seas instead of apocalypse, but even then seems like a stretch. They seem to have run out of steam, ideas, and anything that's not importing Republican-style cultural war nonsense.

[MABA 2020]

No, Truss lost the election for the Conservatives before Sunak was even in office

[patzer]

I also struggle to find a proper example of a government running so far behind and turning things around in the actual campaign. If anything there's way too many examples in the opposite direction of entering the death spiral and only making things worse due to panic (Spanish UCD in 83', Canadian PC in 93'). And even if one concedes that Labor underperformed in 97' given the polls before the campaign, it was still a thumping.

I think the most likely one is major national crisis on the scale of Covid and Sunak manages it competently