Democratic Primary Bullock vs. Booker

[Holmes]

I don't think Bullock would lose Nevada if he were to win Iowa and New Hampshire, but if he were to, it'd be a small enough loss to offset Booker's win in South Carolina either way. If Booker were to win New Hampshire, then it would be a race.

[Holmes]

I don't think Booker would lose Nevada if he were to win Iowa and New Hampshire, but if he were to, it'd be a small enough loss to offset Booker's win in South Carolina either way.

Let's say it's close but Bullock splits the progressive vote with Kamala Harris.

Even if the progressive vote is split in the first four states with Harris, Bullock's victory in Iowa and New Hampshire would still probably propel him to front runner, especially since you said all other candidates have dropped out post-SC.

[Holmes]

Ok, a competitive primary with Bullock winning IA, NH and NV would end up like this, I think.

Bullock retains Sanders' coalition, along with added support in the Rust Belt and Midwest that allows him to take IL, PA, MO and SD and has majority support among latinos, giving him TX, AZ, NM and NV. Booker's support is a much weaker version of Clinton 16, but allows him to carry a lot of the South, VA, MD, DE, and NYC carries NY for him.