If Biden loses where does the Democratic Party go?

[Duke of York]

Nominate Gretchen Whitmer or Josh Shapiro in 2028. After another term of Trump, they would probably win a 2008-style landlide. Democrats would probably be also fine in 2026 then. These are the only silver linings with this stupid moron coming back.

I would not be so sure about a 2008 style landslide . Keep in mind the 2008 election was a tossup on September 14th 2008 despite the fact that Bush’s approvals were in the 20s , we were mired in a very unpopular war in Iraq , economic pessimism was high (though not as high as it would be later in the campaign) , and the democrats nominating a once in a generation talent .

It wasn’t until the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the financial crises happening that turned the 2008 election into a rout . Otherwise it probably is a narrow Obama victory (where Obama gets between 300-320 EV) . My guess is Dems probably would be favored to win but probably semi closely .

Now on the flip side the GOP did nominate McCain in 2008 who was personally pretty popular while today the Republicans don’t really have anyone on their bench who fits that .

A 2nd Trump Presidency would be a complete sh**tshow. Democrats would win big in 2026 & 2028.

If it's a free and fair election.

[Agonized-Statism]

Depends on how the culture develops- either there's a revival of the progressive movement or there isn't during the second Trump presidency- but the next candidate would be a much more decisive figure. Either they're an unabashed progressive reformer or a vocally anti-progressive liberal, but they don't really try to walk a tightrope between the two in any case. Either way, they probably win despite alienating some of the base because Trump's movement would be fully out of steam by 2028 (and he would shoot down any would-be demagogues looking to one-up him).

I do expect progressivism to win, but only after making a Faustian bargain where their generous welfare state comes with support for military interventions and cops (the progressive cop-out solution to police brutality being "accountability measures"). Unabashedly neoliberal Democrats will die out alongside the '90s dream of maximum globalization as the world bifurcates with the graduation of the Sino-Russian imperial semiperiphery into a second imperial core, and the currently Trumpian petite bourgeoise will cool down as they gain status from reshoring and start to look more like the old Republicans (more paternalistic, less combative and racist because they're no longer competing with global markets so much).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All these posters is Doom on a Trump lead and it's half time 6 months left we got another half to go

[Tekken_Guy]

Nominate Gretchen Whitmer or Josh Shapiro in 2028. After another term of Trump, they would probably win a 2008-style landlide. Democrats would probably be also fine in 2026 then. These are the only silver linings with this stupid moron coming back.

I would not be so sure about a 2008 style landslide . Keep in mind the 2008 election was a tossup on September 14th 2008 despite the fact that Bush’s approvals were in the 20s , we were mired in a very unpopular war in Iraq , economic pessimism was high (though not as high as it would be later in the campaign) , and the democrats nominating a once in a generation talent .

It wasn’t until the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the financial crises happening that turned the 2008 election into a rout . Otherwise it probably is a narrow Obama victory (where Obama gets between 300-320 EV) . My guess is Dems probably would be favored to win but probably semi closely .

Now on the flip side the GOP did nominate McCain in 2008 who was personally pretty popular while today the Republicans don’t really have anyone on their bench who fits that .

A 2nd Trump Presidency would be a complete sh**tshow. Democrats would win big in 2026 & 2028.

If it's a free and fair election.

Which it likely will be, not for Trump’s lack of trying.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Whether Biden loses or not is irrelevant, the future is they're going left. Biden's generation are getting old, retiring, and/or dying. Remove that crew and I think you're going to see a much less white, much less old party that's going to give zero time or thought to issues outside of cities.

If you asked me right now, Gavin Newsom has no shot at winning a presidential nomination for the foreseeable future. I've seen enough Democratic voters in elections recently not for President say anonymously to the reporter "I'm not voting for a white man". Throw on top of that Democrats simply don't exist in a lot of rural areas, and it's going to become a much more insular less outward looking party, copying the mannerisms of southern black Democrats effectively.

[Bush did 311]

The owners of this country know where the democratic party is headed if free and fair elections continue. That is why they will not be continued.

[wnwnwn]

I think labor issues coyld unite the core of the party, but corporate interests will make their way as usual.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

26 will be a D landslide and Newsom will be the heir apparent not Harris for Prez, Harris is viewed as mediocre even within the party that's why some polls like Redfield he struggled.  But, Ds aren't going away anytime soon


It's easy to replicate the blue map but with Trump in office it would be easier

[Open Source Intelligence]

I think labor issues could unite the core of the party...

Democrats' stances on immigration and labor are contradictory to say the least.

[Skill and Chance]

They will largely have a choice between playing much harder for business interests (essentially jettisoning the Warren/AOC/Bernie/Lina Khan wing of the party) or trying to gain ground with socially moderate to conservative Southerners.

[GAinDC]

Dems will be more than fine because another Trump term will be a disaster. The party just has to prove itself as a strong firewall against his worst machinations.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Likely to the left, but they will wipe out Republicans Tory style.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said it's a 303 map anyways but it will be easier to gain seats in 26 and 28 and easier if Newsom not Harris to be nominated in 28 as I have already stated many times

[All Along The Watchtower]

I think labor issues could unite the core of the party...

Democrats' stances on immigration and labor are contradictory to say the least.

Democrats aren’t willing to support immigrants explicitly as workers who deserve solidarity, because that would be class politics of the kind contemporary Democrats are uncomfortable with, so they would rather frame it as something DEI-adjacent or at best, a question of human rights. The human rights/social justice approach only gets them so far though.

[Open Source Intelligence]

I think labor issues could unite the core of the party...

Democrats' stances on immigration and labor are contradictory to say the least.

Democrats aren’t willing to support immigrants explicitly as workers who deserve solidarity, because that would be class politics of the kind contemporary Democrats are uncomfortable with, so they would rather frame it as something DEI-adjacent or at best, a question of human rights. The human rights/social justice approach only gets them so far though.

If they want to take that tack, fine, it's just not pro-labor.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I think labor issues could unite the core of the party...

Democrats' stances on immigration and labor are contradictory to say the least.

Democrats aren’t willing to support immigrants explicitly as workers who deserve solidarity, because that would be class politics of the kind contemporary Democrats are uncomfortable with, so they would rather frame it as something DEI-adjacent or at best, a question of human rights. The human rights/social justice approach only gets them so far though.

If they want to take that tack, fine, it's just not pro-labor.

How so?

[Beet]

I do expect progressivism to win, but only after making a Faustian bargain where their generous welfare state comes with support for military interventions and cops (the progressive cop-out solution to police brutality being "accountability measures").

It does sound like we are getting fascism one way or another, the only question being whether there is a 'D' or 'R' next to it. Which party officially carries the banner has little meaning at that point.

[Open Source Intelligence]

I think labor issues could unite the core of the party...

Democrats' stances on immigration and labor are contradictory to say the least.

Democrats aren’t willing to support immigrants explicitly as workers who deserve solidarity, because that would be class politics of the kind contemporary Democrats are uncomfortable with, so they would rather frame it as something DEI-adjacent or at best, a question of human rights. The human rights/social justice approach only gets them so far though.

If they want to take that tack, fine, it's just not pro-labor.

How so?

If I double the supply pool with people willing to work for less per hour or benefits than you, your bargaining power declines. Labor is on an upswing the past few years as far as getting pay raises, and the reason why is a shortage of labor out there, which shows up in the unemployment rate. It also cannot be underestimated how the under the table aspects of some immigrant labor effectively kills those that are citizens and have to follow the law otherwise the IRS pays them a visit. Do you know how much a competitive advantage a worker has that does not have a W-2, 1099's disappear, does not pay payroll, FICA, Social Security, state, and local taxes have over one that does? Meanwhile no one does anything to the business owners and individuals that hire these people.

[All Along The Watchtower]

If I double the supply pool with people willing to work for less per hour or benefits than you, your bargaining power declines. Labor is on an upswing the past few years as far as getting pay raises, and the reason why is a shortage of labor out there, which shows up in the unemployment rate. It also cannot be underestimated how the under the table aspects of some immigrant labor effectively kills those that are citizens and have to follow the law otherwise the IRS pays them a visit. Do you know how much a competitive advantage a worker has that does not have a W-2, 1099's disappear, does not pay payroll, FICA, Social Security, state, and local taxes have over one that does? Meanwhile no one does anything to the business owners and individuals that hire these people.

Slavery undermined free (ie.., mostly white) labor even more than low-wage immigrant labor. And it’s not like enslaved people were even considered citizens before the Fourteenth Amendment. Yet the Radicals in the then-new Republican Party recognized that the solution was to increase the power and wealth of ordinary black and white men alike, and this labor solidarity across ethnic, racial, and yes, national lines (and in more recent decades, across divided of gender and sexuality as well) has always been the aspiration of labor movements and their political allies both in the US and around the world.

To stick with the US specifically, there have long been attempts to organize/increase the bargaining power of workers across all or most divides, from the most Radical among the early Republican Party, to the interracial coalition building by the Populists in the 1880s and 1890s, and through the CIO, the Civil Rights Movement, etc. I say “attempts” because the most threatening outcome for those with wealth and power is organized working class unity, and so any time that the prospect of said unity is raised, the powerful have responded as you would expect.

Anyway, the Democratic Party these days is too in hoc to the rich and upper middle class to embrace much of this even in a campaign platform, let alone policy once in government. That’s unfortunate, but it doesn’t mean that those with these aspirations should give up.