Vermont Megathread

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Endorse, and I expect this to be the only Republican I endorse this year*

*Except if Valerie Plame wins the nomination in NM-03

I think Phil's fantastic COVID response has given legitimate progressives and liberals a good reason to support him, even if they disagree with him on other policies.

Yep. Even if he isn't able campaign, he's done a great job at making sure Vermont has escaped the worst of it, and can always point to that. People around the state, even hardcore Bernie fans, know what an awesome governor he's been.

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https://vtdigger.org/2020/05/28/milne-joins-race-for-lieutenant-governor/

Scott Milne (GOP nominee for governor in 2014 and Senate in 2016) is running for the open Lieutenant Governor's seat. He did get a lot closer in the 2014 race than anyone expected.

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He happens to be successful in New Hampshire because the state is more conservative than VT and MA. There's a market for a Reagan/Bush-era conservative here, although I'd use that term very loosely with Sununu. Unlike Ayotte, Sununu is utterly devoid of principles and believes in whatever is most politically convenient at any given time.

Even then, he's not offensive enough to trigger the #NeverTrumpers in the state or the wine moms.

Tell me more about Ayotte

Of course, I'm talking pre-2016. Back then, she was a proud Republican footsoldier and was seen as part of the next generation of neoconservative leadership. By and large, she didn't offend the wine moms, and was actually fairly popular.

That being said, if Ayotte won she'd, at best, take the current "#NeverTrump" position of being Very Concerned about Trump's political moves while rubber-stamping them anyway. After all, they like the idea of tax cuts, Trumpcare, Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, and Betsy DeVos as Secretary of Education. They just don't like Trump's violation of The Norms. At worst, she'd follow Lindsey Graham into the depths of hell and abandon her mentor's great memory.

Thankfully she lost, I cannot bear the thought of more Gardners, Collins, and Grahams.

The real kicker is that she lost by only 1,017 votes, while right-wing and very pro-Trump indpendent Aaron Day won 17,742 votes. Day basically by the end was running an "Ayotte isn't pro-Trump enough" campaign that siphoned off the hard line Trump base in NH. He actually had digital ads that showed a picture of Ayotte one of Hillary Clinton with the line "I'm with Her". This came after she said she wouldn't vote for Trump but would write in Pence.

Honestly, I remember Ayotte signs being taken down by some people with Trump signs, and some local conservative talk show hosts actually sort of celebrated her loss, even though most of the Trump campaign in the state still was trying to appear friendly with Ayotte. It was a bit odd, all together. Still, on the day after the election I still remember those radio hosts mocking Ayotte by singing along to "Build Me Up, Buttercup"

So you voted for Pence
Because you sat on the fence
Now that you've lost
we're giving you the toss

It didn't sound that great, and I don't remember it exactly, but you get the point. She was really between a rock and a hard place in 2016.

Wow

Is she ever a candidate for a comeback?

She probably would be able to try post-Trump, but she would have problems right now. I do think she has potential in the future, but maybe with a cabinet post first in a more moderate GOP administration (as Attorney General, perhaps). I don't know what she would actually run for though, and I think she legitimately does not want to be a Collins figure so she probably will stay out of elected office while the party clashes with her views so much.

Maybe she could run for Governor in 2022 if Sununu runs for Senate?

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https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/2020/07/17/vermont-goes-30-days-no-covid-19-deaths/5432416002/

Just a little something worth sharing. Maybe containing the virus is easier in Vermont than it is in other states, but this article is a testament to the wonderful man who governs the state. A study in contrasts if there ever was one.

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So so so many John Klar signs. It's really incredible how many. I've never seen such pervasive signs for any candidate in any location before.

First Scott Milne sign spotted today, he's outnumbered by the conservative-libertarian Meg Hansen signs however. Democrat-Progressive Timothy Ashe signs outnumber both however.

A decent amount of Trump signs, including Trump flags.

However, there remains a silent, strong majority for Scott in my view. And not always so silent as illustrated in this sign put up by a local small business.


https://twitter.com/oliverolsen/status/1292471128645083137

Primary day approaches, any suggestions for my activities then?

What do you think the deal is with there being so many Klar signs?

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https://apps.npr.org/elections20-primaries/states/VT.html#date=8%2F11%2F2020&office=G&party=GOP&counties=true&state

Only a few votes so far, but Phil has 85%.

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So so so many John Klar signs. It's really incredible how many. I've never seen such pervasive signs for any candidate in any location before.

First Scott Milne sign spotted today, he's outnumbered by the conservative-libertarian Meg Hansen signs however. Democrat-Progressive Timothy Ashe signs outnumber both however.

A decent amount of Trump signs, including Trump flags.

However, there remains a silent, strong majority for Scott in my view. And not always so silent as illustrated in this sign put up by a local small business.


https://twitter.com/oliverolsen/status/1292471128645083137

Primary day approaches, any suggestions for my activities then?

What do you think the deal is with there being so many Klar signs?

I think among those Republicans opposed to Scott, they are rather angry and have a credible candidate to rally around. I admit myself I thought Klar was even less credible than Keith Stern in 2018 and I was wrong, he's even rallied a whole coalition of conservative "Agripublicans" to seek state office.

However, it's very foolish to read into yard signs. I've seen perhaps triple the Trump signs compared to Biden signs and we know Biden is going to win by +30 points. However, my gut says that this gubernatorial primary may be close, or not. It wouldn't surprise me if Phil glides over Klar by over 30 points, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he skates by with a 5 point lead. That may be hard to get, but I don't know that's just how I feel. I'm probably reading too much into the yard signs.

Experts, including prominent Republicans agree that Phil is in a very good position, mostly because he's swamped the air waves with his COVID press conferences. Klar's time on TV and radio is few and far between, even on the internet content is limited.

Luckily, all those Klar signs you saw didn't end up meaning much in the end. Our king is very much alive, and ready to kick ass in November!

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https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/with-just-weeks-to-go-trump-is-not-making-up-ground/

Sabato shifted the race from Likely R to Safe. Phil is so awesome.

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In a tense and unresolved presidential election, there is happy news: Phil Scott has won reelection with a crushing 68%!!! of the vote.

He is likely to carry all but three or four towns, and came within 200 votes of winning Burlington.

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In some places, the vote really is for the person and not the party. Wish people could be like that everywhere.

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I still can’t believe that VT was the most D state in 2020 (the first time ever that it gave the Democratic candidate their largest margin of victory).

I'm still surprised Scott won by over 40 points.

The national capital of ticket-splitting!

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https://vtdigger.org/2022/01/17/sen-joe-benning-a-moderate-republican-from-the-northeast-kingdom-launches-bid-for-lieutenant-governor/

State Sen. Joe Benning, a Scott-type Republican, is running for the open LG position. Possible pickup?

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Christine Hallquist should run again.

She can try, but it won't matter. Against Phil, she may as well be running in Wyoming.

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https://twitter.com/zuckermanforvt/status/1490659321633460229

He's back

I bet he's not winning the primary. As popular as Phil may be, losing statewide by 40 points is kinda yikes.

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Which Dems might run against Scott?

Probably no one of note. Again, running against him would be suicide.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/PhilScott4VT/status/1526518283956011013

LET’S GOOOO!!!

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Shot:
https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1535337563577253888

Chaser:
https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1535339536527532032

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And with that, the election for Governor of Vermont is over.

https://webpubcontent.gray.tv/wcax/docs/Governor%20and%20Lieutenant%20Governor%20Elections.pdf

It was over from the moment he announced he was running again.

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Did Zuckerman’s horrible gubernatorial campaign damage him so badly than Bennington is favored to beat him this year?

I don't know if I'd say Benning is outright favored, but he definitely has a decent chance. I'd start it as a pure tossup.

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Lol, lmao even.

The king lives on!

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https://twitter.com/philscott4vt/status/1789431181680783520?s=46
Let’s do this.