Current voting trends continue (user search)
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  Current voting trends continue (search mode)
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Author Topic: Current voting trends continue  (Read 2310 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« on: October 06, 2013, 01:28:34 PM »

This could definitely be realistic with the scenario of trends continuing into the future. However the chances of trends completely continuing on for 25+ years in unheard of, and definitely isn't realistic.  There's a few objections here like why does Montana become a swing state and why does Michigan become a republican state before Minnesota, but overall, this is a good prediction for the set scenario . Of course we can't predict the future, so this won't be a realistic map, but its fun to play around with it.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2013, 02:18:18 PM »

This could definitely be realistic with the scenario of trends continuing into the future. However the chances of trends completely continuing on for 25+ years in unheard of, and definitely isn't realistic.  There's a few objections here like why does Montana become a swing state and why does Michigan become a republican state before Minnesota, but overall, this is a good prediction for the set scenario . Of course we can't predict the future, so this won't be a realistic map, but its fun to play around with it.

No. Stop. There are too many issues for me to break it down entirely, but for starters, NH is solidifying with the rest of New England, not moving away to the right.

What else? I think in many of these maps, he's thinking of whites becoming more republican and non-whites becoming more democratic. If so, New Hampshire does make sense, and states like Georgia, Texas, and Arizona make sense. What states specifically do you object to the most here?
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2013, 09:55:29 PM »

The Republicans get rid of the social conservatives from the party and become almost libertarian.

Where exactly are the socons going? This is a pipe dream.

They would die off as they are right now. Although, its going to take a long time for them to be irrelevant to the party, a lot can happen in 26 years (not to mention both parties are trending libertarian.)
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