Why did Hillary do so well in Florida?

[Pres Mike]

In 2008, Florida was 4.4 points to the right of the nation. In 2012, it was 3.02 points to the right. In 2020, it was 7.9 points to the right. In 2004, it was 7.4 points to the right.

In 2016, Florida was 3.3 points to right the nation. This despite the the rest of the nation swinging right. Florida only swung 2 points to the right from 2012 to 2016 despite all the other swing states swinging 7-15 points.

The nation as a whole swung about 2 points, but it almost entirely concerted in the Midwest and Northeast. So Trump's appeal was strongest in the Midwest.

Yet in 2020, one could argue that Trump's strongest appeal was in Florida. It was the only swing state to move right

So in 2016, it seems Hillary Clinton had a unique appeal in Florida. Sure she still lost but only by 1.2 points. That seems odds considering the results of Floridian elections before and after 2016 when looking at the national popular vote. She should have lost Florida by a lot more.

Was Trump unattractive to Floridians in 2016? His 2020 results seem to suggest otherwise.

Was it the Cuban vote? Bush won 75% and 78% of the Cuban vote. Romney got 52% in 2012 to Obama's 48%. In 2016,Trump won 52-41% of the Cuban vote. So Hillary wasn't more popular with Cubans.

[Pres Mike]

She actually put a lot of effort into turning out voters in Florida's urban areas (especially South Florida), and she was also able to leverage her husband's ties to the state to her advantage. She did better than Obama in the urban areas of the state; it's the suburban/exurban areas (especially in and around I-4) that gave the state to Trump.

Would she have won the state without the Comey letter?

[Pres Mike]

In 2008, Florida was 4.4 points to the right of the nation. In 2012, it was 3.02 points to the right. In 2020, it was 7.9 points to the right. In 2004, it was 7.4 points to the right.

In 2016, Florida was 3.3 points to right the nation. This despite the the rest of the nation swinging right. Florida only swung 2 points to the right from 2012 to 2016 despite all the other swing states swinging 7-15 points.

The nation as a whole swung about 2 points, but it almost entirely concerted in the Midwest and Northeast. So Trump's appeal was strongest in the Midwest.

Yet in 2020, one could argue that Trump's strongest appeal was in Florida. It was the only swing state to move right

So in 2016, it seems Hillary Clinton had a unique appeal in Florida. Sure she still lost but only by 3 points. That seems odds considering the results of Floridian elections before and after 2016 when looking at the national popular vote. She should have lost Florida by a lot more.

Was Trump unattractive to Floridians in 2016? His 2020 results seem to suggest otherwise.

Was it the Cuban vote? Bush won 75% and 78% of the Cuban vote. Romney got 52% in 2012 to Obama's 48%. In 2016,Trump won 52-41% of the Cuban vote. So Hillary wasn't more popular with Cubans.

Trump won FL by 1.2% in 2016

Yes? What did I say that conflicts that?

[Pres Mike]

In 2008, Florida was 4.4 points to the right of the nation. In 2012, it was 3.02 points to the right. In 2020, it was 7.9 points to the right. In 2004, it was 7.4 points to the right.

In 2016, Florida was 3.3 points to right the nation. This despite the the rest of the nation swinging right. Florida only swung 2 points to the right from 2012 to 2016 despite all the other swing states swinging 7-15 points.

The nation as a whole swung about 2 points, but it almost entirely concerted in the Midwest and Northeast. So Trump's appeal was strongest in the Midwest.

Yet in 2020, one could argue that Trump's strongest appeal was in Florida. It was the only swing state to move right

So in 2016, it seems Hillary Clinton had a unique appeal in Florida. Sure she still lost but only by 3 points. That seems odds considering the results of Floridian elections before and after 2016 when looking at the national popular vote. She should have lost Florida by a lot more.

Was Trump unattractive to Floridians in 2016? His 2020 results seem to suggest otherwise.

Was it the Cuban vote? Bush won 75% and 78% of the Cuban vote. Romney got 52% in 2012 to Obama's 48%. In 2016,Trump won 52-41% of the Cuban vote. So Hillary wasn't more popular with Cubans.

Trump won FL by 1.2% in 2016

Yes? What did I say that conflicts that?

You mistakenly said that Clinton lost by 3.

My bad, I meant to say Florida was 3 points to the right of the nation, Trump won 1.2 points

[Pres Mike]

She actually put a lot of effort into turning out voters in Florida's urban areas (especially South Florida), and she was also able to leverage her husband's ties to the state to her advantage. She did better than Obama in the urban areas of the state; it's the suburban/exurban areas (especially in and around I-4) that gave the state to Trump.

Would she have won the state without the Comey letter?

Imagine if she won Florida with the rest staying the same. Trump would still have won with 277 electoral votes then. But it would have blown anybody's mind in the summer and fall of 2016 to think about Clinton winning Florida while losing the election. It was actually believed that once the state is called for her early into the night, the whole thing is just over.

So much PTSD.

I remember Hillary releasing her “Tomorrow” ad the day before the election and believing, finally, that my ten years of understanding this woman’s great strengths would be validated in the mainstream. She’d be president, despite the hate from every side. The election would be over and Trump would be gone—a verified joke, defeated in a landslide.

Oh, how things turned.

Same

I remember a politico article the day before titled "Hillary on the edge" basically celebrating her victory. This made me scared, I considered it a bad omen. I remember checking the polls a day or two before the election. Trump was leading in Ohio, Iowa and Florida. I saw MI and PA were tossups and Trump just needed one. It scared me and my fears came true.

[Pres Mike]

She actually put a lot of effort into turning out voters in Florida's urban areas (especially South Florida), and she was also able to leverage her husband's ties to the state to her advantage. She did better than Obama in the urban areas of the state; it's the suburban/exurban areas (especially in and around I-4) that gave the state to Trump.

Would she have won the state without the Comey letter?

You could argue either way. Exit polls showed that 11% of FL's electorate decided their votes in the final week before Election Day, and Trump won this group 55-38. On the other hand, I've heard political commentators say that Comey was at best "one of the factors" in late-breaking voters breaking for Trump.

Hillary spent a lot of money in Ohio. Lots of campaign visits too. 2016 was the last 2000s era election where the key states were seen as Ohio and Florida.

She actually put a lot of effort into turning out voters in Florida's urban areas (especially South Florida), and she was also able to leverage her husband's ties to the state to her advantage. She did better than Obama in the urban areas of the state; it's the suburban/exurban areas (especially in and around I-4) that gave the state to Trump.

I remember watching CNN after the 2020 election. President Biden made enough gains in Florida's suburbs to have won the state had he matched Hillary's performance everywhere else. But Trump's unexpected gains more than cancelled them out, unlike the other swing states.

Florida is probably the one state where it being highly urban hurt Democrats in 2020 lol

[Pres Mike]

She actually put a lot of effort into turning out voters in Florida's urban areas (especially South Florida), and she was also able to leverage her husband's ties to the state to her advantage. She did better than Obama in the urban areas of the state; it's the suburban/exurban areas (especially in and around I-4) that gave the state to Trump.

Would she have won the state without the Comey letter?

You could argue either way. Exit polls showed that 11% of FL's electorate decided their votes in the final week before Election Day, and Trump won this group 55-38. On the other hand, I've heard political commentators say that Comey was at best "one of the factors" in late-breaking voters breaking for Trump.

Hillary spent a lot of money in Ohio. Lots of campaign visits too. 2016 was the last 2000s era election where the key states were seen as Ohio and Florida.

She actually put a lot of effort into turning out voters in Florida's urban areas (especially South Florida), and she was also able to leverage her husband's ties to the state to her advantage. She did better than Obama in the urban areas of the state; it's the suburban/exurban areas (especially in and around I-4) that gave the state to Trump.

I remember watching CNN after the 2020 election. President Biden made enough gains in Florida's suburbs to have won the state had he matched Hillary's performance everywhere else. But Trump's unexpected gains more than cancelled them out, unlike the other swing states.

Florida is probably the one state where it being highly urban hurt Democrats in 2020 lol

Actually, in the suburban/exurban counties in the I-4 region (namely, Brevard, Citrus, Flagler, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands, Lake, Manatee, Marion, Pasco, Polk, Sarasota, Sumter, and Volusia Counties), Trump improved on his margins in terms of raw votes in 2020 compared to 2016 (Trump gained about 232K raw votes in these counties in 2016 and another 45K raw votes here in 2020). Thus, Biden failed to make a significant dent in Trump's margins in this region, which was another contributing factor to Trump's improved margins in the state (in fact, if margins in the suburban/exurban counties listed above had reverted to 2012 levels, Trump's 2020 margin of victory in FL would have been a bit narrower than his 2016 margin of victory).

Where did Biden improve on Hillary in Florida and where did he decline?

[Pres Mike]

She actually put a lot of effort into turning out voters in Florida's urban areas (especially South Florida), and she was also able to leverage her husband's ties to the state to her advantage. She did better than Obama in the urban areas of the state; it's the suburban/exurban areas (especially in and around I-4) that gave the state to Trump.

Would she have won the state without the Comey letter?

You could argue either way. Exit polls showed that 11% of FL's electorate decided their votes in the final week before Election Day, and Trump won this group 55-38. On the other hand, I've heard political commentators say that Comey was at best "one of the factors" in late-breaking voters breaking for Trump.

Hillary spent a lot of money in Ohio. Lots of campaign visits too. 2016 was the last 2000s era election where the key states were seen as Ohio and Florida.

She actually put a lot of effort into turning out voters in Florida's urban areas (especially South Florida), and she was also able to leverage her husband's ties to the state to her advantage. She did better than Obama in the urban areas of the state; it's the suburban/exurban areas (especially in and around I-4) that gave the state to Trump.

I remember watching CNN after the 2020 election. President Biden made enough gains in Florida's suburbs to have won the state had he matched Hillary's performance everywhere else. But Trump's unexpected gains more than cancelled them out, unlike the other swing states.

Florida is probably the one state where it being highly urban hurt Democrats in 2020 lol

Actually, in the suburban/exurban counties in the I-4 region (namely, Brevard, Citrus, Flagler, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands, Lake, Manatee, Marion, Pasco, Polk, Sarasota, Sumter, and Volusia Counties), Trump improved on his margins in terms of raw votes in 2020 compared to 2016 (Trump gained about 232K raw votes in these counties in 2016 and another 45K raw votes here in 2020). Thus, Biden failed to make a significant dent in Trump's margins in this region, which was another contributing factor to Trump's improved margins in the state (in fact, if margins in the suburban/exurban counties listed above had reverted to 2012 levels, Trump's 2020 margin of victory in FL would have been a bit narrower than his 2016 margin of victory).

Why did the I-4 suburbs swing towards Trump when suburbs across the nation went left?

[Pres Mike]

She actually put a lot of effort into turning out voters in Florida's urban areas (especially South Florida), and she was also able to leverage her husband's ties to the state to her advantage. She did better than Obama in the urban areas of the state; it's the suburban/exurban areas (especially in and around I-4) that gave the state to Trump.

Would she have won the state without the Comey letter?

You could argue either way. Exit polls showed that 11% of FL's electorate decided their votes in the final week before Election Day, and Trump won this group 55-38. On the other hand, I've heard political commentators say that Comey was at best "one of the factors" in late-breaking voters breaking for Trump.

Hillary spent a lot of money in Ohio. Lots of campaign visits too. 2016 was the last 2000s era election where the key states were seen as Ohio and Florida.

She actually put a lot of effort into turning out voters in Florida's urban areas (especially South Florida), and she was also able to leverage her husband's ties to the state to her advantage. She did better than Obama in the urban areas of the state; it's the suburban/exurban areas (especially in and around I-4) that gave the state to Trump.

I remember watching CNN after the 2020 election. President Biden made enough gains in Florida's suburbs to have won the state had he matched Hillary's performance everywhere else. But Trump's unexpected gains more than cancelled them out, unlike the other swing states.

Florida is probably the one state where it being highly urban hurt Democrats in 2020 lol

Actually, in the suburban/exurban counties in the I-4 region (namely, Brevard, Citrus, Flagler, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands, Lake, Manatee, Marion, Pasco, Polk, Sarasota, Sumter, and Volusia Counties), Trump improved on his margins in terms of raw votes in 2020 compared to 2016 (Trump gained about 232K raw votes in these counties in 2016 and another 45K raw votes here in 2020). Thus, Biden failed to make a significant dent in Trump's margins in this region, which was another contributing factor to Trump's improved margins in the state (in fact, if margins in the suburban/exurban counties listed above had reverted to 2012 levels, Trump's 2020 margin of victory in FL would have been a bit narrower than his 2016 margin of victory).

Why did the I-4 suburbs swing towards Trump when suburbs across the nation went left?

These places are generally whiter and less educated overall, and Democrats have tanked in places with these characteristics recently. Here are a few examples:

FL Statewide - 52% Non-Hispanic White, 32% College Educated

Hernando County - 74% NHW, 20% CE
Marion County - 67% NHW, 22% CE
Pasco County - 69% NHW, 27% CE
Volusia County - 69% NHW, 26% CE

etc.

These places also have many transplants from the upper Midwest, so Trump's 2016 success in this region was, in retrospect, an early indication of his success in the Rust Belt.

I see, so Florida's suburbs just aren't like suburbs in Atlanta or Houston

Kinda like suburbs in Tennessee. They are far more conservative than the rest of the nation