French Presidential Primaries (MOVE TO INTL WHAT IFS!!!)

[big bad fab]

Hey, be sure to turn off smilies in your posts.

I'm sure Hash does it on purpose ! Have you seen that Mélenchon always grasps 8 EVs, that is.... : ...
Hash is so fond of Mélenchon

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I recognize the huge job made, but sorry, I'm definitely incompatible with alternative past time lines...

[big bad fab]

BUMP. Just BUMP. No need to update it now...

[Antonio the Sixth]

BUMP. Just BUMP. No need to update it now...

[Hash]

June 13, 2006 - The Cher PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 47.93% (16)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 19.18% (6)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 16.02% (5)
Ségolène Royal 14.99% (5)
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.75%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.12%
Franck Pupunat 0.01%

June 13, 2006 - The Indre-et-Loire PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 29.18% (13)
Ségolène Royal 28.79% (13)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 23.15% (11)
Laurent Fabius 16.69% (7)
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.02%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.15%
Franck Pupunat 0.02%

June 13, 2006 - The Loire-Atlantique PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 41.54% (27)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 24.16% (16)
Ségolène Royal 21.09% (14)
Laurent Fabius 12.02% (7)
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.09%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.09%
Franck Pupunat 0.01%

June 13, 2006 - The Loiret PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 32.92% (15)
Ségolène Royal 25.13% (12)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 23.17% (11)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 16.87% (8)
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.76%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.14%
Franck Pupunat 0.01%

June 13, 2006 - The Loir-et-Cher PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 28.05% (10)
Ségolène Royal 27.11% (9)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 25.09% (8)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 18.54% (6)
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.02%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.17%
Franck Pupunat 0.02%

June 13, 2006 - The Maine-et-Loire PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 37.86% (20)
Ségolène Royal 26.33% (14)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 18.55% (9)
Laurent Fabius 15.43% (8)
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.67%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.15%
Franck Pupunat 0.01%

June 13, 2006 - The Saône-et-Loire PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 37.63% (17)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 21.02% (10)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 18.65% (8)
Ségolène Royal 17.43% (8)
Arnaud Montebourg 3.16%
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.09%
Franck Pupunat 0.02%

Royal: red
Fabius: blue
DSK: green
Mélenchon: orange

Delegates as of now:
Royal - 642
DSK - 510
Fabius - 418
Mélenchon - 307
Uncommitted (Montebourg) - 12
Needed for Nomination: 2,219

[big bad fab]

YES, it's back !
Just when I was about to tell you: if you have not much time, just concentrate on US with French parties (but don't forget the French primaries).
And here they are !

Mmmm, it's really very suspenseful.
Will Mélenchon endorse Fabius at one stage ? Or will he make his Huckabee, trying to get the most powerful lever he can ?
DSK and Royal are splitting close wings and Fabius may find a way between them.
Royal isn't able any longer to win, but she has a big base of EVs and she is not easy to negotiate with.
But DSK seems to have a small momentum, with Ile-de-France and Haute-Garonne still to come.

Analysts are all a bit puzzled.
The most open-minded are really happy the French big parties have decided to organize primaries, since politics is now a suspenseful game like in the States !

[Hash]

June 14, 2006 - The Gers PS Primary

Victor:

Jean-Luc Mélenchon



Jean-Luc Mélenchon 33.17% (9)
Ségolène Royal 25.14% (6)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 21.95% (5)
Laurent Fabius 18.65% (5)
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.09%

June 15, 2006: Dominique Strauss-Kahn retakes the lead nationally according to the IFOP national tracker. He has 31% against 26% for Royal, 23% for Fabius, 18% for Mélenchon and 2% for Bockel.

June 16, 2006: A primary debate between the five Socialist primary candidates is held in Quimper. Royal is once again attacked by most of her opponents, who attack her inexperience and lack of decisiveness on issues. Strauss-Kahn is seen as the winner of the debate.

June 17, 2006: A day before the so-called "Atlantic coast" primaries, all candidates hit the ground and work their networks in the various primary departments. Strauss-Kahn seems far ahead in Bretagne, Royal is hoping a strong win in Vendée will put her back on the map, while Mélenchon is favoured by primaries in the Landes - where Henri Emanuelli, a major political figure in the department, is pulling for him strongly. It is rumoured that the Emanuelli factor will also help him pull a win in Pyrenées-Atlantiques. Nationally, the IFOP tracker gives Strauss-Kahn his strongest lead yet: he is polling 33% against 24% for Royal and Fabius each, 18% for Mélenchon and a mere percent for Jean-Marie Bockel. However, the race seems to be heading into an inconclusive dead-end by October 2006. Most pundits, including the top 2 in France: Fabien Filliatre of Le Figaro and Antonio V of Libération, are predicting a unprecedented American-like "convention fight"...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Glad to see you haven't forgotten this one.
Very interesting, great to see Royal losing momentum and DSK gaining one...

[Hash]

June 18, 2006 - The Cotes-d'Armor PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 37.89% (17)
Ségolène Royal 24.09% (11)
Laurent Fabius 18.76% (8)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 17.31% (8)
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.02%

June 18, 2006 - The Finistere PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 35.87% (20)
Laurent Fabius 22.15% (12)
Ségolène Royal 21.08% (12)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 18.95% (10)
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.95%

June 18, 2006 - The Landes PS Primary

Victor:

Jean-Luc Mélenchon



Jean-Luc Mélenchon 67.87% (30)
Laurent Fabius 13.14% (5)
Ségolène Royal 9.75%
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 7.23%
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.01%

June 18, 2006 - The Morbihan PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 50.16% (28)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 24.53% (13)
Ségolène Royal 14.21% (7)
Laurent Fabius 9.87%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.23%

June 18, 2006 - The Pyrénées-Atlantiques PS Primary

Victor:

Jean-Luc Mélenchon



Jean-Luc Mélenchon 45.67% (22)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 26.36% (13)
Laurent Fabius 14.09% (6)
Ségolène Royal 11.79% (5)
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.09%

June 18, 2006 - The Vendée PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 33.08% (15)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 33.01% (15)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 17.16% (8)
Laurent Fabius 14.66% (7)
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.09%

Royal: red
Fabius: blue
DSK: green
Mélenchon: orange

Delegates as of now:
Royal - 698
DSK - 608
Fabius - 461
Mélenchon - 407
Uncommitted (Montebourg) - 12
Needed for Nomination: 2,219


Graph: % of delegates per candidate at given times based on total delegates allocated at that moment

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, Mélenchon is gaining ground... And that's not good for the PS.

[Hash]

Back to the UMP...

May 31, 2006: Sarkozy gains significant momentum from his trouncing of Villepin in the Bouches-du-Rhône 50-33. The IFOP poll among UMP voters see his numbers rise 3% from pre-primary, 46% to 49%.

June 2, 2006: A primary debate between Sarkozy, Villepin, Alliot-Marie, Kaci, Boutin and Dupont-Aignan is held in Bordeaux, Gironde (a major primary state). Sarkozy is strong in debate as he flouts himself as the candidate of the 'new right'.

June 3, 2006: Sarkozy unveils a new campaign slogan, La droite nouvelle, construisons la ensemble. The slogan is a symbol of Sarkozy's new campaign style, where he stresses that he is the 'new generation' as well as his populism.

June 5, 2006 - Final Super Tuesday polls: The Super Tuesday primaries are only a day away, and all candidates are frantically campaigning in the last 24 hours. Sarkozy is the overwhelming favourite, he holds a 47-25 lead over Villepin in the latest IFOP poll. Alliot-Marie is third with 22%. A number of primaries favour Sarkozy, including the Aisne, Bas-Rhin, Marne, Alpes-Maritimes and both Corsican departments.

June 6, 2006 - The Aisne UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 52.35% (23)
Dominique de Villepin 23.75% (10)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 19.75% (9)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2.16%
Christine Boutin 1.02%
Rachid Kaci 0.97%

June 6, 2006 - The Allier UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 42.09% (15)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 29.15% (10)
Dominique de Villepin 24.19% (9)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2.02%
Christine Boutin 1.54%
Rachid Kaci 1.01%

June 6, 2006 - The Alpes-Maritimes UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 67.19% (46)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 10.11% (6)
Dominique de Villepin 13.14% (8)
Rachid Kaci 5.87%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2.89%
Christine Boutin 0.80%

June 6, 2006 - The Ardèche UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 50.03% (17)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 23.19% (8)
Dominique de Villepin 23.01% (7)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.64%
Christine Boutin 1.11%
Rachid Kaci 1.02%

June 6, 2006 - The Charente-Maritime UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 34.52% (16)
Dominique de Villepin 32.02% (15)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 30.14% (14)
Rachid Kaci 1.32%
Christine Boutin 1.02%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0.98%

June 6, 2006 - The Corrèze UMP Primary

Victor:

Dominique de Villepin



Dominique de Villepin 47.45% (14)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 26.43% (7)
Nicolas Sarkozy 23.21% (7)
Rachid Kaci 0.98%
Christine Boutin 0.96%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0.96%

June 6, 2006 - The Corse-du-Sud UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 53.02% (11)
Dominique de Villepin 31.02% (7)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 14.58% (3)
Rachid Kaci 0.75%
Christine Boutin 0.32%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0.31%

[big bad fab]

Yay, it's back !!!

Mmmmhhh.... Suspense ! Will the minor candidates withdraw ? Probably Boutin, but the others ?
And, what is more, will MAM withdraw ? It would help Villepin, but she may have some hopes yet, to "negotiate" with one man or the other...
And Villepin will probably play like Huck...
Suspense !

[Hash]

June 6, 2006 - The Haute-Corse UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 41.19% (10)
Dominique de Villepin 40.02% (9)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 16.73% (4)
Rachid Kaci 0.78%
Christine Boutin 0.64%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0.64%

June 6, 2006 - The Doubs UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 43.21% (18)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 27.64% (12)
Dominique de Villepin 25.78% (11)
Rachid Kaci 1.19%
Christine Boutin 1.17%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.01%

June 6, 2006 - The Drôme UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 38.86% (16)
Dominique de Villepin 33.27% (14)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 22.87% (10)
Christine Boutin 2.01%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.78%
Rachid Kaci 1.21%

June 6, 2006 - The Eure UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 34.15% (15)
Dominique de Villepin 34.11% (15)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 28.29% (13)
Christine Boutin 1.32%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.11%
Rachid Kaci 1.02%

June 6, 2006 - The Gironde UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 41.09% (29)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 32.19% (23)
Dominique de Villepin 23.38% (16)
Christine Boutin 1.21%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.12%
Rachid Kaci 1.01%

June 6, 2006 - The Hérault UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 61.02% (37)
Dominique de Villepin 19.09% (11)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 16.54% (10)
Christine Boutin 1.13%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.12%
Rachid Kaci 1.10%

June 6, 2006 - The Ille-et-Vilaine UMP Primary

Victor:

Dominique de Villepin



Dominique de Villepin 47.45% (23)
Nicolas Sarkozy 31.02% (18)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 26.64% (15)
Christine Boutin 1.11%
Rachid Kaci 0.78%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0.34%

June 6, 2006 - The Loire UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 42.76% (23)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 31.19% (16)
Dominique de Villepin 21.67% (11)
Christine Boutin 2.12%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.14%
Rachid Kaci 1.12%

June 6, 2006 - The Marne UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 53.19% (26)
Dominique de Villepin 25.48% (11)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 16.75% (7)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2.45%
Christine Boutin 1.12%
Rachid Kaci 1.01%

June 6, 2006 - The Martinique UMP Primary

Victor:

Dominique de Villepin



Dominique de Villepin 51.19% (19)
Nicolas Sarkozy 16.14% (11)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 32.11% (6)
Christine Boutin 0.22%
Rachid Kaci 0.19%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0.15%

June 6, 2006 - The Nièvre UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 40.21% (11)
Dominique de Villepin 28.85% (8)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 27.54% (8)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.23%
Christine Boutin 1.13%
Rachid Kaci 1.04%

June 6, 2006 - The Orne UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 43.22% (14)
Dominique de Villepin 29.24% (9)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 23.65% (8)
Christine Boutin 2.01%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.02%
Rachid Kaci 0.86%

June 6, 2006 - The Pas-de-Calais UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 38.09% (28)
Dominique de Villepin 32.11% (24)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 25.02% (18)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2.43%
Christine Boutin 1.33%
Rachid Kaci 1.02%

June 6, 2006 - The Bas-Rhin UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 56.42% (36)
Dominique de Villepin 25.53% (16)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 14.53% (9)
Rachid Kaci 1.24%
Christine Boutin 1.19%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.09%

[Hash]

June 6, 2006 - The Deux-Sèvres UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 39.87% (15)
Dominique de Villepin 31.02% (11)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 26.53% (9)
Christine Boutin 1.18%
Rachid Kaci 0.86%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0.54%

June 6, 2006 - The Vosges UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 47.41% (18)
Dominique de Villepin 24.94% (9)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 24.09% (9)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2.11%
Christine Boutin 1.02%
Rachid Kaci 0.43%

June 6, 2006 - The Yonne UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 49.42% (18)
Dominique de Villepin 29.75% (10)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 17.51% (6)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.54%
Christine Boutin 1.02%
Rachid Kaci 0.76%

June 6, 2006 - The Yvelines UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 50.02% (39)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 24.19% (18)
Dominique de Villepin 14.99% (11)
Christine Boutin 6.74%
Rachid Kaci 2.31%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.75%

June 6, 2006 - The Val-de-Marne UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 51.19% (36)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 23.12% (16)
Dominique de Villepin 20.76% (14)
Rachid Kaci 1.96%
Christine Boutin 1.65%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.32%

[Hash]

Delegates as of now:
Sarkozy - 675 (47.8%)
de Villepin - 404 (28.61%)
Alliot-Marie - 333 (23.58%)
Needed for Nomination: 2,219



Sarkozy: blue
Villepin: green
Alliot-Marie: red

[Hash]

June 7, 2006: Christine Boutin announces that she is dropping out of the race for the UMP nomination without making an immediate endorsement. She had put all her strength in Yvelines, where she had hoped to break to 10% threshold. She was polling 1.5% nationally.

June 8, 2006: Rachid Kaci announces that he is dropping out of the race for the UMP nomination and endorses Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, his former ally.

June 9, 2006: Nicolas Sarkozy leads the IFOP tracking poll with 47% against 28% for de Villepin, 22% for Alliot-Marie and 3% for Dupont-Aignan.

June 10, 2006 - Final Rural Tuesday polls: The 'Rural' Tuesday primaries are only hours away, and Sarkozy trails in a number of them, a lot are old Chiraquiste or Christian democratic strongholds unfavourable to him.

June 11, 2006 - The Alpes-de-Haute Provence UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 37.02% (9)
Dominique de Villepin 32.01% (7)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 29.65% (7)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.32%

June 11, 2006 - The Aveyron UMP Primary

Victor:

Dominique de Villepin



Dominique de Villepin 38.16% (11)
Nicolas Sarkozy 32.11% (10)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 28.64% (9)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.09%

June 11, 2006 - The Cantal UMP Primary

Victor:

Dominique de Villepin



Dominique de Villepin 41.09% (9)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 29.17% (7)
Nicolas Sarkozy 28.31% (6)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.43%

June 11, 2006 - The Haute-Loire UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 39.87% (11)
Dominique de Villepin 30.47% (8)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 27.65% (8)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2.01%

June 11, 2006 - The Lot UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 36.09% (9)
Dominique de Villepin 35.63% (9)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 26.42% (6)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.86%

June 11, 2006 - The Lozère UMP Primary

Victor:

Dominique de Villepin



Dominique de Villepin 44.02% (7)
Nicolas Sarkozy 28.35% (5)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 24.98% (4)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2.65%

June 12, 2006 - The Haute-Marne UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 66.74% (18)
Dominique de Villepin 15.62% (4)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 11.62% (3)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 6.02%

Delegates as of now:
Sarkozy - 743 (47.06%)
de Villepin -  459 (29.07%)
Alliot-Marie - 377 (23.88%)
Needed for Nomination: 2,219



Sarkozy: blue
Villepin: green
Alliot-Marie: red

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Hmm, if I can, no offense but just lol at the départements' flags. So Hashemite.

I didn't know these primaries took place in... (from which epoch are these flags exactly? i mean actually, just curious), well far before than today anyways.

Have a look here:

http://www.lalogotheque.com/fr/departements.php?pageNum_rs_logo=2&totalRows_rs_logo=110&



...and don't take it bad, it's your thread, i know, i don't want to bitch it, i just couldn't prevent myself to remark it...

[Hash]

So Hashemite.

Har, har, har. I'm a regionalist. Har, har, har. Very funny.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

These are the flag versions of each department's current coat of arms. Yes, I know, they aren't used. But I like them. So who cares.

And if you took the care of looking at the timeline, you'd notice it takes place in 2006.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So Hashemite.

Har, har, har. I'm a regionalist. Har, har, har. Very funny.

Nah, that's beyond the regionalist hence. An attraction for the stuffs of the past. Note that i don't necessarily mean a passéiste, i tend to think you're not that that much, nor that i make a reproach of it. That are just impresses, and some totally personal ones anyways.

These are the flag versions of each department's current coat of arms. Yes, I know, they aren't used. But I like them. So who cares.

Yes, yes, wasn't to make a reproach. And hey, foreigners had to know that départements' logos were beyond these flags of...........which epoch? do you know? ....(that was my question rather than knowing in which years did you actually situated these primaries).

Each of these coat of arms are associated to a département, départements are 200 years old. Have these flags been created for the départements a long time ago, or did they already existed in the ancient-régime and the power of such epoch decided to then associate them to the modern creation that have been départements? Or is that just some people here or there who deliberately decided to associate these of coat of arms to the départements? Or other? If you know/have an idea, of course.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sarko is now quasi-ensured to win...

[Hash]

June 13, 2006 - The Cher UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 45.63% (15)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 26.52% (9)
Dominique de Villepin 25.74% (8)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2.11%

June 13, 2006 - The Indre-et-Loire UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 41.67% (19)
Dominique de Villepin 32.09% (14)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 24.81% (11)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.43%

June 13, 2006 - The Loire-Atlantique UMP Primary

Victor:

Dominique de Villepin



Dominique de Villepin 38.15% (25)
Nicolas Sarkozy 38.09% (25)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 22.65% (14)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.11%

June 13, 2006 - The Loiret UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 44.19% (21)
Dominique de Villepin 27.09% (13)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 26.71% (12)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2.01%

June 13, 2006 - The Loir-et-Cher UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 50.68% (18)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 25.11% (8)
Dominique de Villepin 22.35% (7)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.86%

June 13, 2006 - The Maine-et-Loire UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 37.18% (19)
Dominique de Villepin 32.16% (17)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 29.65% (15)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.01%

June 13, 2006 - The Saône-et-Loire UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 37.86% (17)
Dominique de Villepin 37.02% (16)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 22.03% (10)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 3.09%

Delegates as of now:
Sarkozy - 877 (46.35%)
de Villepin -  559 (29.55%)
Alliot-Marie - 456 (24.10%)
Needed for Nomination: 2,219



Sarkozy: blue
Villepin: green
Alliot-Marie: red

[Hash]

June 13, 2006: Dominique de Villepin and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan announce that they will be pulling out of the Gers primary to focus on later primaries. Their names will remain on the ballot.

June 14, 2006 - The Gers UMP Primary

Victor:

Michèle Alliot-Marie



Michèle Alliot-Marie 44.77% (13)
Nicolas Sarkozy 44.71% (12)
Dominique de Villepin 9.87%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0.65%

June 15, 2006: Nicolas Sarkozy's leads drops nationally according to the latest IFOP poll. He leads de Villepin by 14 points, 43% to 29%. Alliot-Marie remains stagnant with 24%, while Dupont-Aignan has 3%.

June 16, 2006: Nicolas Sarkozy refuses to debate his opponents in Quimper due to 'time constraints'. His decision is ridiculed by his opponents. Dominique de Villepin holds his largest rally to date in Morlaix, where he is joined by Jacques Le Guen, an MP and Breton leader of the Villepin campaign.

June 17, 2006: A day before the so-called "Atlantic coast" primaries, all candidates hit the ground and work their networks in the various primary departments. Dominique de Villepin is pinning his chances on the three remaining Breton departments, notably Finistère where internal polls show him riding very high with 53% support. Alliot-Marie, after her surprise win in the Gers is pinning her chances on two departments: her home department, Pyrénées-Atlantiques and the neighboring Landes. Sarkozy is in a tough situation in the Atlantic coast primaries, with polls showing him behind in all departments except Vendée, where it is rumoured that increased UMP registration (from the MPF ranks) is favouring him and Dupont-Aignan. Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, meanwhile, insists that poor showings will not stop his campaign. Most say he'll stay till the end.

Ipsos poll for the Finistère UMP primary
Villepin 48%
Sarkozy 31%
Alliot-Marie 20%
Dupont-Aignan 1%

Ipsos poll for the Morbihan UMP primary
Villepin 39%
Sarkozy 35%
Alliot-Marie 24%
Dupont-Aignan 2%

Ipsos poll for the Vendée UMP primary
Sarkozy 43%
Villepin 30%
Alliot-Marie 21%
Dupont-Aignan 6%

[big bad fab]

Sarkozy is good at finishing in first place, even in Eure, Calvados or Lot, where it should have been more difficult for him, but he hasn't a majority yet.

MAM seems to try to put the stakes as high as she can: she splits the "old" chiraquian vote (and so harm Villepin a lot), but she prevents (for the moment) Sarkozy from having a majority of delegates.

Eventually, the UMP primaries appear to be far more suspenseful than they look first...

Political observers are fascinated.

[Hash]

June 18, 2006 - The Côtes d'Armor UMP Primary

Victor:

Dominique de Villepin



Dominique de Villepin 43.19% (19)
Nicolas Sarkozy 29.75% (13)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 25.97% (12)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.09%

June 18, 2006 - The Finistère UMP Primary

Victor:

Dominique de Villepin



Dominique de Villepin 54.90% (30)
Nicolas Sarkozy 24.11% (13)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 19.87% (11)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.12%

June 18, 2006 - The Landes UMP Primary

Victor:

Michèle Alliot-Marie



Michèle Alliot-Marie 64.88% (26)
Nicolas Sarkozy 24.38% (9)
Dominique de Villepin 9.76%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0.98%

June 18, 2006 - The Morbihan UMP Primary

Victor:

Dominique de Villepin



Dominique de Villepin 44.53% (22)
Nicolas Sarkozy 31.09% (15)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 23.07% (11)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.31%

June 18, 2006 - The Pyrénées-Atlantiques UMP Primary

Victor:

Michèle Alliot-Marie



Michèle Alliot-Marie 80.16% (46)
Nicolas Sarkozy 9.91%
Dominique de Villepin 8.92%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.01%

June 13, 2006 - The Vendée UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 42.09% (20)
Dominique de Villepin 29.86% (14)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 24.51% (11)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 3.54%

June 19, 2006: The latest TNS-Sofres poll shows that in June, Villepin had an overall 77% no confidence record with French voters. The declining popularity of the already unpopular Prime Minister could be damning for Villepin, even with UMP voters in eastern France scheduled for the next day. Campaigning in a factory in Sedan, surrounded by workers, Sarkozy slams Villepin and MAM as "out of touch with the real France" and says that a Villepin candidacy would mean "a Socialist slam dunk in May 2007."

Delegates as of now:
Sarkozy - 947 (43.76%)
de Villepin -  644 (29.76%)
Alliot-Marie - 573 (26.48%)
Needed for Nomination: 2,219



Sarkozy: blue
Villepin: green
Alliot-Marie: red

[Hash]

June 20, 2006 - The Ain UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 46.78% (20)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 27.80% (14)
Dominique de Villepin 22.31% (11)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 3.11%

June 20, 2006 - The Ardennes UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 51.11% (17)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 23.58% (7)
Dominique de Villepin 20.75% (7)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 4.56%

June 20, 2006 - The Haute-Savoie UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 50.02% (24)
Dominique de Villepin 26.11% (13)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 22.75% (11)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.12%

June 20, 2006 - The Haut-Rhin UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 53.09% (27)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 24.65% (12)
Dominique de Villepin 21.24% (11)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.02%

June 20, 2006 - The Rhône UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 44.16% (33)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 28.64% (22)
Dominique de Villepin 26.45% (20)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0.75%

June 20, 2006 - The Savoie UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 40.09% (15)
Dominique de Villepin 30.25% (11)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 29.02% (11)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0.64%

June 19, 2006: The latest TNS-Sofres poll shows that in June, Villepin had an overall 77% no confidence record with French voters. The declining popularity of the already unpopular Prime Minister could be damning for Villepin, even with UMP voters in eastern France scheduled for the next day. Campaigning in a factory in Sedan, surrounded by workers, Sarkozy slams Villepin and MAM as "out of touch with the real France" and says that a Villepin candidacy would mean "a Socialist slam dunk in May 2007."

Delegates as of now:
Sarkozy - 1083 (44.20%)
de Villepin - 717 (29.27%)
Alliot-Marie - 650 (26.53%)
Needed for Nomination: 2,219



Sarkozy: blue
Villepin: green
Alliot-Marie: red