French Presidential Primaries (MOVE TO INTL WHAT IFS!!!)

[Hash]

Ahem. A fun, unplausible, and silly little idea that just sparked up. I'll make as if France used an American-like tradition for presidential primaries.

I'll choose a small department at random to be the "Iowa" of this scenario.

Each party will have a primary system, using the same dates. But different delegate allocation techniques.

More candidates of course for each party.

I'll do 2007 first and see how that goes.


Calendar: To be updated

May 2006

May 16, 2006: Jura primary
May 23, 2006: Hautes-Alpes primary
May 28, 2006: Meurthe-et-Moselle, Calvados, and Eure-et-Loir primaries
May 30, 2006: Bouches-du-Rhone primary

June 2006

June 6, 2006: Super Tuesday Primaries in Bas-Rhin, Alpes-Maritimes, Herault, Pas-de-Calais, Gironde, Loire, Allier, Marne, Yonne, Ille-et-Vilaine, Orne, Eure, Deux-Sevres, Correze, Charente-Maritime, Vosges, Ardeche, Drome, Corse-du-Sud, Haute-Corse, Martinique, Nievre, Doubs, Aisne, Val-de-Marne, and Yvelines
June 11, 2006: Rural Sunday Primaries in Lozere, Haute-Loire, Cantal, Aveyron, Lot, and Alpes-de-Haute-Provence
June 12, 2006: Haute-Marne primary
June 13, 2006: Loire River Primaries in Loire-Atlantique, Maine-et-Loire, Indre-et-Loire, Loir-et-Cher, Loiret, Cher, and Saône-et-Loire
June 14, 2006: Gers primary
June 18, 2006: Finistere, Cotes-d'Armor, Morbihan, Vendee, Landes, and Pyrenees-Atlantique
June 20, 2006: Ain, Rhone, Savoie, Haute-Savoie, Haut-Rhin, and Ardennes primaries
June 27, 2006: Sarthe, Mayenne, Manche, Aude, and Vaucluse primaries

July 2006

July 2, 2006: Creuse, Puy-de-Dome, Haute-Vienne, Vienne, and Seine-Maritime primaries
July 4, 2006: Meuse, Moselle, and Haute-Saone primaries
July 9, 2006: Charente, Dordogne, Indre, and Gard primaries
July 16, 2006: Belfort Territory, Cote-d'Or, Guadeloupe, Reunion, Aube, and Oise primaries
July 23, 2006: Lot-et-Garonne, Tarn-et-Garonne, Tarn, Haute-Garonne, Hautes-Pyrenees, Ariege, Guyane, and Pyrenees-Orientales primaries
July 25, 2006: Somme, Polynesie, Nouvelle Caledonie, and Wallis et Futuna primaries

August 2006

August 1, 2006: Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon primary
August 6, 2006: Var and Nord primaries

September 2006

September 5, 2006: Seine-et-Marne, and Hauts-de-Seine primary
September 26, 2006: Paris, Essonne, Seine-Saint-Denis, and Val-d'Oise primaries

October 2006

October 1-8, 2006: French citizens abroad primary
October 9, 2006: Mayotte primary

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Sounds interesting . Can't wait for it to begin.

I assume that Nicolas Sarkozy will be running unopposed in the 2007 UMP Primaries?

[Хahar 🤔]

[Hash]

The French Iowa is...

JURA!


Région: Franche-Comté
Chef-lieu: Lons-le-Saunier
Population: (Ranked 79th) 255,500 (2006)
Population density:    50/km²
Land area: 4999 km²

Primary date: TUESDAY, MAY 16TH, 2006

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Outside of the fact I'm not a fan of such simulation, I find the comparison between Iowa and Jura good, it even seems to me that you've made the best choice of département.

[Hash]

Calendar for all primaries has been posted in the first post.

[Хahar 🤔]

A very good job with the calendar. I especially like your putting Paris last. It effectively disenfranchises the largest urban area, just as American primaries tend to do.

[Hash]

Ideas for some candidates:

PS (faction)

Royal
Fabius (Fabiusiens)
Strauss-Kahn
Montebourg (NPS)
Franck Pupunat (Far-left joke)
Bockel (liberals)
Hollande (majority)

Greenies (faction)

Voynet (leftie)
Cochet (centre-left ecologist)
Duflot (??)
Wehrling (centrist)
Desessard (very leftie, ex-Trot)

The "United Anti-Liberal Left Primaries" (PCF) [I'm unsure if I'll have a PCF-only primary or a big Trot-to-Commier free for all].

Buffet (majority)
Gremetz (insane 'Orthodox' PCF)
Besancenot

UDF

Bayrou (independent centrist)
de Robien (pro-UMP centre-right)

UMP

Sarkozy
Alliot-Marie
Goulard (anti-Sarkozy)
Dupont-Aignan (souverainiste)
Boutin (Christian right)
Kaci (libertarianistic souverainiste)

Nomination by convention only: FN, LO, LCR, PRG, MRC, Radical (right), CNIP, MEI, CAP21, PT, EDE, Royalists, FB etc.

[Хahar 🤔]

A big Commie free-for-all would be more interesting.

[Hash]

A big Commie free-for-all would be more interesting.

But the egomaniacs that make up 99.9% of the French far-left wouldn't want to lose.

[Хahar 🤔]

A big Commie free-for-all would be more interesting.

But the egomaniacs that make up 99.9% of the French far-left wouldn't want to lose.

Let's pretend they became more reasonable.

[Hash]

A big Commie free-for-all would be more interesting.

But the egomaniacs that make up 99.9% of the French far-left wouldn't want to lose.

Let's pretend they became more reasonable.

I suppose I can try that. Though each party will still hold separate conventions.

[Хahar 🤔]

A big Commie free-for-all would be more interesting.

But the egomaniacs that make up 99.9% of the French far-left wouldn't want to lose.

Let's pretend they became more reasonable.

I suppose I can try that. Though each party will still hold separate conventions.

Fine.

[Hash]

Delegate totals for each primary and allocation rules to be posted today.

Unless I flip-flop, the delegate totals, for the sake of simplicity, will simply be the number of cantons in that department.

EDIT: Except for Paris, the delegates will be equal to the number of cantons. Paris will have 79 delegates, like the Nord.

[Hash]

Delegates

Jura   29
   
Hautes-Alpes   21
   
M-et-Moselle   49
Calvados   47
Eure-et-Loir   37
   
Bouches-du-Rhone   80
   
Aisne   42
Allier 34
Alpes Maritimes   60
Ardeche   32
Bas-Rhin   60
Charente-Maritime   45
Correze   28
Corse-Sud   21
Deux-Sevres   35
Doubs   41
Drome   40
Eure   43
Gironde   68
Haute-Corse   23
Herault   58
Ille-et-Vilaine   56
Loire    50
Marne   43
Martinique   36
Nievre   27
Orne     31
Pas-de-Calais   70
Val-de-Marne   66
Vosges   36
Yonne   34
Yvelines   68
   
Alpes-de-Haute Provence   23
Aveyron   30
Cantal   22
Haute-Loire   27
Lot   24
Lozere   16
   
Haute-Marne   25
   
Cher    32
Indre-et-Loire    44
Loire-Atlantique   64
Loiret   46
Loir-et-Cher   33
Maine-et-Loire    51
Saone-et-Loire    43
   
Gers    25
   
Cotes-d'Armor   44
Finistere   54
Landes   35
Morbihan   48
Pyrenees-Atlantiques   46
Vendee   45
   
Ain   43
Ardennes    31
Haute-Savoie   48
Haut-Rhin    50
Rhone   75
Savoie   37
   
Aude   34
Manche   41
Mayenne   32
Sarthe   43
Vaucluse   42
   
Creuse   20
Haute-Vienne   35
Puy-de-Dome   46
Seine-Maritime    64
Vienne   37
   
Haute-Saone   28
Meuse   25
Moselle   59
   
Charente    34
Dordogne    37
Gard           48
Indre   28
   
Aube   32
Belfort   22
Cote-d'Or   42
Guadeloupe   37
Oise   51
Reunion   51
   
Ariege   22
Guyane   26
Haute-Garonne   63
Hautes-Pyrenees   28
Lot-et-Garonne   33
Pyrenees-Orientales   38
Tarn   35
Tarn-et-Garonne   27
   
N. Caledonie   40
Polynesie   45
Somme   43
Wallis   20
   
S-P-et-M   5
   
Nord    92
Var   57
   
Hauts-de-Seine   72
Seine-et-Marne   65
   
Essonne   63
Paris    85
Seine-Saint-Denis   71
Val-d'Oise 62
   
French abroad 5
   
Mayotte   19

TOTAL   4436
MAJORITY    2219

[PGSable]

It's interesting to see Royal and Hollande running against each other...

Is there any speculation as to whether Chirac will run? He might get crushed in the first few primaries and drop out before Super Tuesday (like Lyndon Johnson in 1968).

[Hash]

Is there any speculation as to whether Chirac will run? He might get crushed in the first few primaries and drop out before Super Tuesday (like Lyndon Johnson in 1968).

Good idea. But I was more thinking along the lines of a Chiraquie (Alliot-Marie and Goulard)-Sarkozy duel.

I think Chirac knew that he would get crushed and his ego would make him stay out.

[big bad fab]

When I was 14 (in 1984, I was following assiduously the Hart-Mondale race, after a bit of Glenn and with a quite young Jesse Jackson), I build French primaries calendar.
But Iowa was split in Lot and Haute-Saône and there wasn't any New Hampshire but, quite quickly, a rather big département: Bas-Rhin.

In your case, Jura is a good idea for Iowa, even if a big "corn" or "wheat" département would be Eure-et-Loir.
Haut-Rhin would be fine as NH (or maybe Haute-Savoie).

2011 primaries will be fine:
Hollande, Fabius, Delanoë, Royal, Aubry, DSK, Valls for the Socialist Party
Either only Sarkozy, or Copé, Bertrand, Fillon, Borloo, Alliot-Marie, Kaci, Boutin for the UMP.....

Do not forget Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélémy: they will have MPs now !

[Hash]

In your case, Jura is a good idea for Iowa, even if a big "corn" or "wheat" département would be Eure-et-Loir.
Haut-Rhin would be fine as NH (or maybe Haute-Savoie).

I didn't try to match departments with states much. I just tried to have the same ideas with a few early primaries, a huge Super Tuesday, a "regional primary", a smaller Mini Tuesday, and a wrap up.

Do not forget Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélémy: they will have MPs now !

Ah yes. I forgot about those two. Let them vote with Guadeloupe for now

[Hash]

note to moderators: please move topic to Int'l what-ifs

It begins! I'll skip over the declarations and boring campaign quite fast and jump right into it. Of course, this timeline is massively unplausible and a few things have been altered from reality:

-larger party membership
-an organized party registration system
-weaker party bosses


September 19, 2005: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the For the Social Republic (PRS) faction in the Socialist Party, is the first Socialist candidate to officially declare his intentions.

September 22, 2005: Rachid Kaci, the leader of the libertarian wing of the UMP, announces his candidacy.

October 10, 2005: Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, the leader of the hardline Gaullist wing of the UMP, announces his candidacy.

October 16, 2005: Laurent Fabius, former Prime Minister and Minister of Finances in the Jospin government forms an exploratory committee and his campaign places his participation in the primaries conditional on a good result for his motion in the November 2005 Socialist Le Mans Congress.

October 23, 2005: In a newspaper interview, the new PS President of Poitou-Charentes, Ségolène Royal, declares her "interest" in the primaries, though she does not form an exploratory committee.

October 25, 2005: Yves Contassot declares his candidacy in the Green presidential primaries.

October 31, 2005: Two candidates declare their candidacy: Christine Boutin, a member of the UMP's Christian right and Jean-Marie Bockel, a social liberal within the PS.

November 1, 2005: Yves Cochet, a Green MP from Paris, declares his candidacy in the Green primaries. He is joined three days later by Dominique Voynet, a Green Senator from Seine-Saint-Denis and Green candidate in 1995.

November 9, 2005: André Gérin, an "Orthodox" Communist deputy, announces his candidacy. Five days later, Roger Martelli, a Communist historian and rénovateur declares his candidacy.

November 13, 2005: François Bayrou, the President of the UDF, declares his candidacy from his small native village of Bordères, Pyrenées-Atlantiques.

November 18, 2005: The Socialist Congress opens in Le Mans. The majority faction led by incumbent leader François Hollande wins 53% of the motions vote, but Laurent Fabius wins a pleasing 22%, tied with the New Socialist Party current led by Arnaud Montebourg, Henri Emmanuelli and Vincent Peillon.

November 20, 2005: The Socialist Congress ends in the re-election, unopposed, of François Hollande as party leader. However, on the 22nd, Laurent Fabius confirms his candidacy. Arnaud Montebourg also declares his interest, while Ségolène Royal forms an exploratory committee.

November 29, 2005: Gilles de Robien, the sole UDF cabinet minister (Education) declares his candidacy in the UDF primaries, citing his dissatisfaction with the Bayrou strategy.

December 12, 2005: Ségolène Royal, the frontrunner, officially announces that she will be a candidate. François Hollande, the PS First Secretary and Royal's partner, has yet to declare his intentions.
 
December 14, 2005: Michèle Alliot-Marie, the Minister of Defense and the last President of the Gaullist RPR, declares her candidacy.

January 3, 2006: Marie-George Buffet, the Secretary General of the PCF, declares her candidacy.

January 6, 2006: The Hollande majority shows its cracks when Dominique Strauss-Kahn declares his candidacy in the Socialist primaries. More and more analysts say that Hollande will not run, based on poor internal polling and a division of his majority.

January 9, 2006: Pierre Moscovici endorses Dominique Strauss-Kahn. DSK seems to be presented as the majority's preferred candidate over the "rebellious" Fabius and the "novice" Royal. The same day, the leader of the small Utopia current, Franck Pupunat, declares his candidacy.

January 15, 2006: The Minister of the Interior, Nicolas Sarkozy finally declares his candidacy in the UMP primaries. He is seen as the frontrunner.

January 20, 2006: Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin announces his candidacy in the UMP primaries. He is seen as the second man in the race and the major representative of President Jacques Chirac's legacy.

January 31, 2006: Yann Wehrling, a centrist Green from Alsace, declares his candidacy.

February 9, 2006: Arnaud Montebourg declares his candidacy. However, Henri Emmanuelli and Vincent Peillon, his former allies in the NPS, fail to endorse him. Indeed, Peillon later endorses Royal, along with Julien Dray, another member of the NPS.


Declared Candidates as of February 10, 2006

Socialist
President of the Poitou-Charentes Regional Council and MP for the Deux-Sèvres Ségolène Royal
Former Minister and MP for Val-d'Oise Dominique Strauss-Kahn
Former Prime Minister and MP for Seine-Maritime Laurent Fabius
Senator for Essonne Jean-Luc Mélenchon
MP for Saône-et-Loire Arnaud Montebourg
Senator for the Haut-Rhin and Mayor of Mulhouse Jean-Marie Bockel
Franck Pupunat

UMP
Minister of the Interior and MP for the Hauts-de-Seine Nicolas Sarkozy
Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin
Minister of Defense and MP for the Pyrenées-Atlantiques Michèle Alliot-Marie
MP for Essonne Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
MP for Yvelines Christine Boutin
Rachid Kaci

UDF
President of the UDF and MP for the Pyrenées-Atlantiques François Bayrou
Minister of Education Gilles de Robien

The Greens
MP for Paris Yves Cochet
Senator for Seine-Saint-Denis Dominique Voynet
Deputy Mayor of Paris Yves Contassot
Yann Wehrling

PCF
MP for Seine-Saint-Denis and Secretary General Marie-George Buffet
MP for Rhône André Gérin
Historian Roger Martelli


May 2, 2006: 15 days from the Jura primary.

Ipsos poll for the Jura UMP primary
Sarkozy 41%
Villepin 32%
Alliot-Marie 20%
Kaci 3%
Boutin 3%
Dupont-Aignan 1%

Ipsos poll for the Jura PS primary
Royal 30%
Strauss-Kahn 24%
Fabius 23%
Montebourg 12%
Mélenchon 9%
Bockel 1%
Pupunat 1%

Ipsos poll for the Jura UDF primary
Bayrou 60%
Robien 40%

Ipsos poll for the Jura Green primary
Voynet 65%
Cochet 27%
Contassot 9%
Wehrling 9%

Ipsos poll for the Jura PCF primary
Buffet 60%
Gérin 33%
Martelli 7%


Primary delegate allocation rules: The delegate numbers were posted earlier. Delegates allocated proportionally to each candidate breaking 10%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great idea. Please continue it !

[Hash]

Delegate numbers revised with new improved formula.

[big bad fab]

Mmmm... Villepin is quite high in Jura and Sarkozy quite low, but it's May 2006. Nothing is done ! Though, the race will be unexpectedly open: many thought Villepin would be crushed because of all the CPE mess.
But it seems that a reflex from some UMP members is to gather around the "legitimate" choice and to defend the current government. Maybe some former DL, FD, UDF members give him some more points.
Will it last ?
Will Alliot-Marie be able to pull ahead as a compromise candidate ?

Voynet is high in her own departement but she is not in the 80-90 %. Cochet remains at a level which is not ridiculous.
Contassot, deputy mayor of Paris, lags behind, as if the left of the Green movement has decided to support Voynet, just to avoid Cochet.

A good poll for André Gerin (an orthodox deputy from Rhône): if he grasps as many votes, he'll be able to challenge Buffet up to more important primaries.

The PS primary process will decidedly be very open and fightful, as can be foreseen.

[Hash]

May 13, 2006: Arnaud Montebourg announces that he will not be campaigning in the Hautes-Alpes and will put all his forces in Meurthe-et-Moselle (May 23, 49 delegates), Calvados (May 23, 47) and Bouches-du-Rhone (May 28, 80). By consequence, he is also not campaigning in Eure-et-Loir (May 23, 37).

May 15, 2006 - Final Jura polls:

Ipsos poll for the Jura UMP primary
Sarkozy 42%
Villepin 33%
Alliot-Marie 20%
Kaci 2%
Boutin 2%
Dupont-Aignan 1%

Ipsos poll for the Jura PS primary
Royal 28%
Strauss-Kahn 25%
Fabius 24%
Montebourg 11%
Mélenchon 10%
Bockel 1%
Pupunat 1%

Ipsos poll for the Jura UDF primary
Bayrou 59%
Robien 41%

Ipsos poll for the Jura Green primary
Voynet 67%
Cochet 22%
Contassot 6%
Wehrling 5%

Ipsos poll for the Jura PCF primary
Buffet 62%
Gérin 32%
Martelli 6%

May 16, 2006 - The Jura UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 44.67% (14)
Dominique de Villepin 34.11% (10)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 17.32% (5)
Rachid Kaci 1.62%
Christine Boutin 1.15%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.13%

May 16, 2006 - The Jura PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 26.96% (8 )
Ségolène Royal 26.11% (8 )
Laurent Fabius 24.13% (7)
Arnaud Montebourg 10.96% (3)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10.12% (3)
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.08%
Franck Pupunat 0.64%

May 16, 2006 - The Jura UDF Primary

Victor:

François Bayrou



François Bayrou 59.11% (17)
Gilles de Robien 40.89% (12)

May 16, 2006 - The Jura Green Primary

Victor:

Dominique Voynet



Dominique Voynet 72.11% (24)
Yves Cochet 15.09% (5)
Yves Contassot 6.79%
Yann Wehrling 6.01%

May 16, 2006 - The Jura PCF Primary

Victor:

Marie-George Buffet



Marie-George Buffet 59.19% (19)
André Gérin 33.14% (10)
Roger Martelli 7.67%

[Antonio the Sixth]

May 16, 2006 - The Jura PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 26.96% (8 )
Ségolène Royal 26.11% (8 )
Laurent Fabius 24.13% (7)
Arnaud Montebourg 10.96% (3)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10.12% (3)
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.08%
Franck Pupunat 0.64%

Yeah ! Go, DSK !