University of Arkansas: Hillary +2 on Generic R

[IceSpear]

Romney won Arkansas in 2012 by about the same margin Obama won Maryland. Just for perspective.

[IceSpear]

Romney won Arkansas in 2012 by about the same margin Obama won Maryland. Just for perspective.

Yeah, but Arkansas is very fond of the Clintons, most voters there are registered Democrats, and President Obama is very deeply hated up there.

Still, imagine a poll showing a certain Republican leading generic D by 2 points in Maryland. When I look at it from that perspective, it's easy to see why the Republicans are in desperation mode trying to bring Hillary down.

[IceSpear]

Arkansas will go to the GOP again, but it might be like 53-46 rather than 61-37.  Rather, I'm curious whether Clinton doing this well in Arkansas suggests good things for Missouri.

Yeah, assuming these polls showing Hillary doing well in Appalachia hold up, Missouri would probably be a lean D state.

[IceSpear]

I don't think Hilary is winning Arkansas. Once they find out about how she is an actual liberal and not just the wife of a former president/governor. I wouldn't take this too hard, in the end, I expect republicans to win the state by a Bush 2004 margin. If another democrat gets elected, I expect the margin to be a little larger. You can argue against me, but I don't think this small lead will last.

It's not so much that people think she'll win, just that she's digging into the GOP coalition. The GOP desperately needs to GAIN support right now, they can't afford to lose any of the support they currently have,