Kerry 47 Bush 45 in New Hampshire - Kerry can almost afford defeat in Florida

[MissouriStunner]

According to the American Research Group, Kerry leads Bush 47-45 in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire now along with West Virginia and Florida remain the only states that have swung to the other party. The worrying aspect for the President is that the democratic party are no-longer just defending the Gore won states but are now grabbing Bush states. The next targets remain Nevada, Arkansas and Virginia. Virginia is a long shot but a democrat win in Arkansas or Nevada will mean that if Kerry wins all the Gore states he can afford to lose Florida, Ohio and Missouri. If Kerry wins all Gore states and wins NH and WV it will be a tie with defeats in Ohio, Florida and Missouri.

The Bush campaign has spent most money in Ohio and Missouri. Bush is leading at present and will likely win but Bush is trying to make ground around the great lakes. Kerry has hardly campaigned in Wisconsin and Minnesota yet the polls suggest that Bush has failed to penetrate ground. Wisconsin does have a high number of Christian Right Conservatives but 12% of the population are ex-veterans that are behind Kerry. Hence the reasons why democrats have campaigned hard in Fairfax County, Virginia.

Defeat looks more likely for Bush than it does for Kerry. Momentum is vital in politics and the democrats have it. Most Republicans believe firmly that Bush will be re-elected. But a few months ago only 1/4 of democrats thought Kerry would win. Now Democrats can see light at the end of the tunnel and realise that Bush HAS TO WIN MISSOURI AND OHIO.

Kerry with record funds and with the help of other organistaions are spending millions ensuring that Bush has to plow most op his money into his territory. The consequences are severe at the moment. Bush is holding ground in Ohio and Missouri but is losing in Florida, West Virginia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Arkansas and now New Hampshire. Bush has to change tactics.

[MODU]

Yes, it is a long shot for Kerry in VA.  As far as NH goes, I have written off that state for Bush in my projection, however, if ARG is saying Kerry is only 2 points ahead, then the realistic picture is that both candidates are tied (ARG has a tendancy to be slightly biased towards the left).  Florida is leaning Bush again this year, and he should win by a greater margin this time (more than just a few hundred votes).  West VA is tricky, and will probably be the closest battle of the East.  Kerry might walk away with that state, but it wouldn't be a campaign killer for Bush if he secures one of the Great Lake states.

[nomorelies]

Bush has spent so much time campaignig in Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin. It is a major risk he takes. Wisconsin is the only state that Bush can win. Minnesota and Michigan has more appeal for Kerry than Gore. People realise how important their vote is.

Wisconsin = Kerry wins 48-46
Minnesota = Kerry wins 49-46
Michigan = Kerry wins 50-46.

Hence Bush i think has wasted his time. Bush will win Ohio (50-46) Missouri (51-45). But the money spent will be wasted when Kerry wins in WV (48-46) and Florida (49-47). Bush is toast if he doesnt cvhange his tactics. I am getting so excited now.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Another new poll of New Hampshire by Univ. of NH also has Kerry up, 47-43.  Here is a link.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

More Northeastern appeal.....Kerry will take N.Hampshire.  And as 2000 showed us, even a small state can be big.  Gore picks up ANY additional state in 2000 and he wins.  

[Floridude]

I think the message here is a bit flawed.   West Virginia has yet to swing to the dems in any meaningful way.  Most polls still show Bush up a bit.  I know the zogby state polls are pretty lousy, but they show him up 6 to 7% there even when the other states have him behind.

New Hampshire can go to Kerry.  Frankly I dont think Bush needs it.  If he holds it its a pleasant surprise.  

Florida will decide the election this year.  And I like Bush's chances here.  Polls are pretty much deadlocked right now, but his brother is the governor.  No, they will not steal the election, but I wouldnt be surprised if Florida is not extremely close (as in bush wins it by 2-3%)

If Bush holds west virginia, and Florida but loses New Hampshire, he is still in excellent shape, assuming no elector defects on a 269-269 tie.

Look at the remainder of the states that Bush would need to hold.

Ohio-Job losses, but seems fairly republican

Colorado-Closer than last time, but no polls have shown Kerry within margin of error

Missouri-Bellweather, all polls are within margin of error, but has been trending a bit to conservatives.

Nevada-Most polls show Bush consistently ahead, and if he wins the other 4 and loses Nevada, its a 269-269 tie which favors Bush

Arkansas-Close race, but I cant see  Bush losing it if he can hold other close states.

So if Bush loses NH and Nevada it is 269-269.  If he loses NH and loses Arkansas Kerry wins 270-268.

Of course a wildcard is CD2 in maine.  I bet it will stay Kerry, but with a race this  tight, every E-vote matters.

[Lunar]

Kerry's two big "outs" for this election are either Ohio or Florida.  Florida has a chance on deciding the election, but there are plenty of methods for Kerry to win without it.   I think you discard Ohio too easily, those job losses will hurt with undecideds and Bush's ground game is weaker there than in Florida (but still pretty good).

West Virginia really isn't looking that bad for Kerry.  Mason Dixon, which is somewhere around 99,000 times better than Zogby, had Kerry up 6 when the race was tied nationally two months ago and ARG just showed Kerry +3 this month.  It'll be a question of ground game, but my prediction would be a 1-1.5% Kerry victory should the race be teid.

[zorkpolitics]

More Northeastern appeal.....Kerry will take N.Hampshire.  And as 2000 showed us, even a small state can be big.  Gore picks up ANY additional state in 2000 and he wins.  

Not quite.  If Bush wins all his 2000 states except NH he would have 274 EV, if he loses a state with 5 or fewer EV (WV or NV) he would still win, since even in a 269-269 Tie, the Hosue would vote for Bush

[agcatter]

Yeah, Bush has a little electoral leeway after reapportioning electoral votes.  If he wins Florida, Ohio, and Mo. again, he wins even if he loses both WV and NH.  And then there is the fact that Dems won NM by like 300 votes last time.  Wis, Iowa, and Oregon were each won by less than 1/2 of one percent.  Kerry has a lot of work just hanging on to those states.

How come you donks are taking those states for granted while projecting changeovers of red states?  Seems you are taking a hell of a lot for granted.

[Shira]

Florida is leaning Bush again this year, and he should win by a greater margin this time (more than just a few hundred votes).  

Based upon what  do you come with this assertion?

I am confident that :

Bush2004 < Bush2000

[agcatter]

For one thing the economy there has benn going great guns for over two yrs now.

[Lunar]

That means that all groups have a higher job approval rating of him.  More Democrats and independents are thinking "hey, he's doing a decent job" and less Republicans are likely to switch over and vote for Kerry because they are upset over Bush's performance.

[TeePee4Prez]

For one thing the economy there has benn going great guns for over two yrs now.

UHHH, fro who?  

[??????????]

For one thing the economy there has benn going great guns for over two yrs now.

UHHH, fro who?  

Floridas economy is in great shape and unemployment here is lower then the national level.

[freedomburns]

Kerry needs to pull off one more state and WV should be it.  No excuses for him not to take this state.  It is majority Dem, Byrd will help him and there are a ton of vets in WV, so Kerry's war record should play well.

No excuses for not turning this state Sen. Kerry!

[JNB]

    The Kerry camps main target is OH, with NH and WV also high up on the list. So far voters still do not  know who Kerry is. If he doest screw up at the convention, amd projects an image of someone who is fiscally responsible and as someone who is for fair trade, OH, NH and WV could very well be gone for Bush.

[MODU]

Sounds like his wife started out on the right foot last night by telling a reporter to "shove it."  hehehe . . . I'm not one to say members of the administration (or their family) cannot show their human side, but I don't think most of the population is ready for such a 'blunt' person.  hehehe . . . let's see if the the Clintons/Gore stay calm or go on a rampage.  Might just sink Kerry further in the polls.

[nomorelies]

Kerry hasn`t been to Wisconsin for a long time. Kerry is running a smart campaign by constantly visiting Florida. i have stated since june that Florida is what makes or breaks the Bush Presidency. If BUsh wins Ohio and Missouri then its expected. If Kerry wins either Bush is toast. Kerry has solid ground in Michigan, Iowa, Oregan and Washington even by a small amount but it narrows the alternaitves for Bush to win.

Kerry needs to campaign in Arkansas and Nevada

[John]

Bush will WI By a Close Vote
50% for Bush
48% for Kerry

[khirkhib]

Sounds like his wife started out on the right foot last night by telling a reporter to "shove it."  hehehe . . . I'm not one to say members of the administration (or their family) cannot show their human side, but I don't think most of the population is ready for such a 'blunt' person.  hehehe . . . let's see if the the Clintons/Gore stay calm or go on a rampage.  Might just sink Kerry further in the polls.

"Go F* yourself"

telling a reporter that is harping you about a misquote to shove is not offensive.

I mean Mormons say shove it.  Shove is more tame than darn.

Oh it has some insinuations I don't doubt it.

Shove it has two definations in the urban dictionary

1. A skate trick where the skater does an ollie and uses his/her feet to spin his/her board 180 degrees before landing on it. Also called "pop-shove-it."

You should be able to ollie over a deck before trying to pop shove-it.

(I can't say for sure that the reporter was or was not on a skateboard but its possible.)

2.
short slang for shove it up your ass.

Why don't you take your sh**t with you and shove it.

(this is probably is the expession she was referring to and I hope the reporter did shove it.  

If it is something your grand-ma might say no one will find it offensive.

[MODU]

Turns out that it wasn't a misquote though (got to watch the video last night).  Too funny.  hehehe