If Bernie is the nominee is Virginia winnable for Trump?

[jamestroll]

The only reason I think Trump still loses Virginia is because people who work in government think he's an idiot. There are many Federal workers in that area or private contractors who provide government related businesses and services. Trump had a totally pointless shutdown and threatens one whenever he doesn't get his way.

My feels on this exactly. Otherwise Virginia would be the easiest Clinton state for Trump to pick up.

[Del Tachi]

Yes.  Romney won more votes in Virginia in 2012 than Trump did in 2016, and Trump only needs to "flip" 106k Clinton voters to turn the state red.  There's still more room for Dems to fall in SWVA (Clinton cleared 20% in most counties there; I could see any of the Democratic nominees failing to reach 15%).   

VA is an uphill battle for Trump and it's not a necessary component on his path to 270, but Democrats would be mistaken to take it for granted in 2020.

[DaWN]

Atlas still as stuck in 2012 as ever I see

[SWE]

Del Tachi is right in the sense that Dems can't just take it for granted, but any Democrat is heavily favored, including Bernie just as much as anyone else

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We had this discussion before, Bernie isnt running himself; consequently,  he will vet a strong Veep in Buttigieg,  Bennet, Klobuchar or Baldwin that will help him win 278 EC wall. Rs have AZ, FL and NC to worry about, Lieberman helped Gore almost carry FL against Bush W due to Jewish vote and minimum wage and PR statehood is on ballot

[slothdem]

But Loudon County going from 55 D to 38 R to 53 D to 45 R and Prince William County going from 57 D to 36 Rto 54 D to 44 R

Losses that close in PWC and Loudon are impossible for any Republican at the Presidential level, no matter the candidates or national environment.

[AN63093]

Sigh.  I'll never understand Atlas' fascination with VA.  Been seeing these threads for years and still don't get it.

Whenever someone posts a VA thread, they should be forced to do the following thought exercise: before asking any question such as "If [insert event] happens, will Virginia vote R", you should first ask the question "If [insert event] happens, will Maryland vote R".  The answer to the second question will answer your first. 

Maybe Sanders would cause the margin to narrow a bit in Loudoun, and the GOP would have a somewhat better chance of keeping Chesterfield and VA Beach from flipping.  But that's about it.  The more interesting question is whether Sanders would have any negative downballot effects in close districts like VA-2.  I tend to think the answer is probably not, but at least there's more of a discussion to be had there.

[Del Tachi]

Sigh.  I'll never understand Atlas' fascination with VA.  Been seeing these threads for years and still don't get it.

Whenever someone posts a VA thread, they should be forced to do the following thought exercise: before asking any question such as "If [insert event] happens, will Virginia vote R", you should first ask the question "If [insert event] happens, will Maryland vote R".  The answer to the second question will answer your first. 

Maybe Sanders would cause the margin to narrow a bit in Loudoun, and the GOP would have a somewhat better chance of keeping Chesterfield and VA Beach from flipping.  But that's about it.  The more interesting question is whether Sanders would have any negative downballot effects in close districts like VA-2.  I tend to think the answer is probably not, but at least there's more of a discussion to be had there.

So Maryland and Virginia are interchangeable at this point?



I mean, Virginia is definitely a state where Democrats have a sizable advantage nowadays but to argue its as safe for Democrats as Maryland is pretty ridiculous.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Here's the thing:

it doesn't matter who the nominee is

We said the same thing about MI, PA, and WI.

It matters.

Any Republican would have won those in 2016, possibly by an even wider margin.