bobloblaw
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,018
|
 |
« on: August 28, 2015, 06:42:02 PM » |
|
You can see the trend in the polling already.
You have mostly a unified Dem party with Hillary polling 4-5 points less than what Obama got in 2012.
If you look at the two party vote since 1988, the incumbent party loses about 4-5 points in the NPV. Bush 88 was down from Reagan 84 by 4-5 points. Gore 2000 was down from Clinton 96 by 4 points. McCain 08 got 5 points less than GW Bush got in 04.
Prior to 1988, the decline in two party NPV was even greater given there were more swing voters. Ford 76 down 12 points from Nixon 72. Humphrey 68 down 11 points from LBJ 64. Nixon 60 down 8 points from Ike 56. Stevenson 52 down 7 points from Truman 48. Even FDR lost votes from 1936 to 1940.
There is no way that Clinton does better than Obama did in 2012. She is a much weaker candidate.
Ill say PA is the most likely state that could flip. Given Toomey's big lead and the DEM AG headed off to prison.
|
