NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Oryxslayer]

Kornaki just said the channels calls said Bergen has no mail in, and are unlikely to report it tonight. No mail in Burlington either.

Ignoring that though, the red mirage should vanish just by the 70K D eday votes that should be net by Essex.

[Oryxslayer]

Ignoring that though, the red mirage should vanish just by the 70K D eday votes that should be net by Essex.

If all early and mail votes in Essex County have already been counted, and there are just 70K election day votes there to be counted, then Dems have some severe turnout issues in NJ which have opened the door for Ciattarelli to win. That would mean that there are 110K total votes in Essex and there are at least 200K total votes in Ocean, while they had about the same number of total votes in 2020.

70K net. And that's just a guess from 2017 numbers. Also Passaic is doing the same thing as Essex.

Murphy's going to win but its not going to be a landslide unless the votes that emerge later on are really blue. Someone said online it reminds them on SC-05: a race that ended up close as the other contest got infinitely more attention.  

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455735518910681090?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Said cache in Essex just dropped, closing the gap to 18K.

Most of the vote out according to DDHQ will be from Biden counties, and most will be mail/early - excluding Salem of course. We know where this is going, it'll just take time and be much closer than expected.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455736858164572165?s=20

The plot thickens

Slightly off topic but Nate Cohn is by far my favorite of the Twitter forecaster guys. Pretty much nailed VA-GOV from the outset.

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1455738870578954242?s=20


Looks like even some red counties havn't counted their mail votes.

[Oryxslayer]

Said cache in Essex just dropped, closing the gap to 18K.

Most of the vote out according to DDHQ will be from Biden counties, and most will be mail/early - excluding Salem of course. We know where this is going, it'll just take time and be much closer than expected.

Yeah, then it looks like Murphy is still on track to win. PredictIt has moved towards him, 90-10 now.

Still, he's not going to win by much, and that disappoints me since I thought he was doing a good job. Either there was a lot of hidden anger toward his COVID policies or the issue of taxes really resonated. Honestly I can't tell about the taxes since NY taxes are even higher and I pay those since I work in NYC. Perhaps it was a protest vote in general.

I think it's more the cause we are looking at national environment presently around even or R+1, which means 8+ point margin decreases from 2020. People on twitter already noted how Youngkin appears to be the beneficiary of a universal swing in most of the state, rather than any consistent concentrated gains.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1455741135373144065?s=20

It seems we are doing this again - we already know there is a mislabeled % in Morris for example.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1455747042366705665?s=20

I mostly agree with this take. A national environment that makes VA R+1 probably makes NJ a narrow D win, and that's where we appear heading. So any state specific issues on either side of the coin in our nationalized elections probably are marginal at best.

[Oryxslayer]

Murphy 31513 Cit 9682 VBM in Bergen according to kornacki from the county clerk. That A: Flips the county, B: its probably a indicator of the VBM left uncounted in nearly all normally Dem counties.

There is a reason where Murphy is claiming victory now.

[Oryxslayer]

Murphy 31513 Cit 9682 VBM in Bergen according to kornacki from the county clerk. That A: Flips the county, B: its probably a indicator of the VBM left uncounted in nearly all normally Dem counties.

There is a reason where Murphy is claiming victory now.

there was 227 929 votes in Bergen in 2017. 219 984 are counted this year. Are you sure those  vbm aren't already counted ?

Their up on DDHQ now.

Reminder: Polarization increases turnout among all parties because everyone senses urgency and fear. This is a proven fact in Electoral Behavior studies, with examinations all reaching the same conclusion- no matter the time frame or county studied.

[Oryxslayer]

DDHQ seems somewhat ahead of NYT. It has the Bergen VBM and the Sussex/Salem votes. Ciattarelli still up by 18k votes. 

And they also present decent estimates of votes outstanding. Said votes are almost all in normally blue counties, and almost all are VBM. This is why I keep saying we know what's going to happen, it just will be closer than what was expected and is inline with Biden's poor national approvals.

[Oryxslayer]

Why on earth would the counted votes on that sheet not be in the statewide totals? But yes, the words are incoherent, so who knows. Wildstein, you need to learn how to write before becoming a print reporter or whatever you are.

A most shocking result I must say. What on earth is going on? The Pub was invisible, generically cliched (the taxes are too high), soft on covid, and boring, while my impression was that Murphy was pleasant and competent. I wonder if our votes are counted yet. We put are VBM ballot envelops in a ballot drop box next to the Hoboken city hall 5 days ago. The at large council candidate slate that I like very much swept to victory.

Well its partially, as you note, a case of some of the most Blue votes across the state remaining uncounted at the moment. The final margin shouldn't be questionable, but it will be close - the 'bellwethers' point towards a +4/5 final result. Now why did it occur - well Biden has some very bad approvals, and the national environment is really bad for Dem's right now. Sometimes governor races can outrun defy their state's lean, but the baseline is still heavily dependent upon the national mood.

Real question is if numbers are so dependent on the national mood - Newsom Doing fine when Biden was doing Okay, now NJ/VA going bad when Biden approvals are bad - what the national mood will be in mid/late 2022.