Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports: Biden +2%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 2-3, September 6-8
2500 likely voters
MoE: 2%
Changes with August 26-27, August 30-September 1 poll

Biden 48% (-1)
Trump 46 (+1)
Some other candidate 4 (+1)
Undecided 3 (n/c)

[neostassenite31]

What an unexpected shocker from your favorite pollster

[wbrocks67]

Back into f**k with the average like clockwork

[ExSky]

Ahh yes. According to Rasmussen Ohio will vote 2 points to the left of the country

[Alben Barkley]

Ahh yes. According to Rasmussen Ohio will vote 2 points to the left of the country

If it did, Biden would have the EC advantage, so I’d be OK with these numbers.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, either these numbers are fake or the state #s are fake. No way Ohio is +4 and WI +8 but Biden is only +2 nationally

[WD]

inb4 this becomes a 5 page thread

[Person Man]

When was the last poll in the RCP average that had Trump ahead?

[Nyvin]

Ras is Trash

[forza nocta]

When was the last poll in the RCP average that had Trump ahead?

A February poll by Emerson. Only poll the entire year that has had him ahead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ras is Trash

It is important to note, that they won't publish any Senate numbers in battleground states, but they keep publishing these large plus 10 Biden numbers, we should all be weary of polls period. But, if Trump would sign the Heroes Act and get a vaccine, he would be reelected, but as of now, he is letting McConnell dictate the stimulus package. But, Pelosi, plays a part in it too, and she adjourned until 9/11 yesterday as soon as she gaveled in, please

[Hydera]

They had the GOP at +1 in their last poll in 2018 but ended up being wrong as the dems won the PV that year by 8.2%, so unscrewing it means Biden +10.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Ahh yes. According to Rasmussen Ohio will vote 2 points to the left of the country

You really do not understand polling at all. I realize I do not either.

BUT I DO UNDERSTAND THAT RASMUSSEN’S NATIONAL POLL HAS NO RELATIONSHIP TO ITS OHIO POLL.  You can only compare one of his national Polls to another of his National Polls and not to any of his state Polls.  And visa versa. 

Because his national poll is a rolling poll you can only compare polls on certain days.  I am not sure of his rules on that.

Any poll is only a snapshot of the portion of the electorate polled.  The There is no guarantee that the sample polled will be the sample that shows up to vote.  There is no guarantee someone polled will not change their vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ahh yes. According to Rasmussen Ohio will vote 2 points to the left of the country

You really do not understand polling at all. I realize I do not either.

BUT I DO UNDERSTAND THAT RASMUSSEN’S NATIONAL POLL HAS NO RELATIONSHIP TO ITS OHIO POLL.  You can only compare one of his national Polls to another of his National Polls and not to any of his state Polls.  And visa versa. 

Because his national poll is a rolling poll you can only compare polls on certain days.  I am not sure of his rules on that.

Any poll is only a snapshot of the portion of the electorate polled.  The There is no guarantee that the sample polled will be the sample that shows up to vote.  There is no guarantee someone polled will not change their vote.

Conservatives don't understand the system of Early voting and VBM, Seniors by and large whom voting R will not be voting early and will go to the polls on Election day and people under 70 will vote early or vote by mail. Many Seniors will have difficulty understanding how to  VBM, so they will chose not to vote early.

Trump has not lead in a single natl poll and RCP has him down 6 to 8 points and Rassy is an arm of Fox News, Rassy is not a reliable pollster, and OH will go Dem

[Arkansas Yankee]

Yeah, either these numbers are fake or the state #s are fake. No way Ohio is +4 and WI +8 but Biden is only +2 nationally

GOOD GRIEF YOU CANNOT DIRECTLY COMPARE A MORNING CONSULT POLL TO A RASMUSSEN POLL. YOU CAN ONLY DIRECTLY COMPARE A MORNING CONSULT POLL TO A MORNING CONSULT POLL AND A RASMUSSEN POLL TO A RASMUSSEN POLL.  WHY BECAUSE THEY HAVE NOT POLLED THE SAME PEOPLE.  THEY HAVE NOT POLLED AT THE SAME TIME. THEY HAVE NOT POLLED WITH THE SAME QUESTIONS.

ALL OF THE POLLS MAY BE A TRUE AND PROPER REFLECTION OF THE INDIVIDUALS POLLED.  
ONE POLLING COMPANY MAY HAVE MADE A BETTER SELECTION OF WHOM TO CALL.  OR, THEY MAY HAVE JUST BEEN LUCKY.

PLEASE TRY TO UNDERSTAND THIS.

I KNOW I AM SCREAMI.  THAT IS BECUSE YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND THESE THINGS.

POLLING IS AN ART NOT A SCIENCE!

[Rand]

Yeah, either these numbers are fake or the state #s are fake. No way Ohio is +4 and WI +8 but Biden is only +2 nationally

GOOD GRIEF YOU CANNOT DIRECTLY COMPARE A MORNING CONSULT POLL TO A RASMUSSEN POLL. YOU CAN ONLY DIRECTLY COMPARE A MORNING CONSULT POLL TO A MORNING CONSULT POLL AND A RASMUSSEN POLL TO A RASMUSSEN POLL.  WHY BECAUSE THEY HAVE NOT POLLED THE SAME PEOPLE.  THEY HAVE NOT POLLED AT THE SAME TIME. THEY HAVE NOT POLLED WITH THE SAME QUESTIONS.

ALL OF THE POLLS MAY BE A TRUE AND PROPER REFLECTION OF THE INDIVIDUALS POLLED.  
ONE POLLING COMPANY MAY HAVE MADE A BETTER SELECTION OF WHOM TO CALL.  OR, THEY MAY HAVE JUST BEEN LUCKY.

PLEASE TRY TO UNDERSTAND THIS.

I KNOW I AM SCREAMI.  THAT IS BECUSE YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND THESE THINGS.

POLLING IS AN ART NOT A SCIENCE!

olawakandi on steroids ^^

[Adam Griffin]

This poll doesn't take into account the Baby Boomer Caps Lock bump. After factoring that in, it's Trump +3.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Ahh yes. According to Rasmussen Ohio will vote 2 points to the left of the country

You really do not understand polling at all. I realize I do not either.

BUT I DO UNDERSTAND THAT RASMUSSEN’S NATIONAL POLL HAS NO RELATIONSHIP TO ITS OHIO POLL.  You can only compare one of his national Polls to another of his National Polls and not to any of his state Polls.  And visa versa. 

Because his national poll is a rolling poll you can only compare polls on certain days.  I am not sure of his rules on that.

Any poll is only a snapshot of the portion of the electorate polled.  The There is no guarantee that the sample polled will be the sample that shows up to vote.  There is no guarantee someone polled will not change their vote.

Conservatives don't understand the system of Early voting and VBM, Seniors by and large whom voting R will not be voting early and will go to the polls on Election day and people under 70 will vote early or vote by mail. Many Seniors will have difficulty understanding how to  VBM, so they will chose not to vote early.

Trump has not lead in a single natl poll and RCP has him down 6 to 8 points and Rassy is an arm of Fox News, Rassy is not a reliable pollster, and OH will go Dem

There are so many misconstructions in the above, I do not know where to start.

In many states voter can vote early in person.   I am 76 and have voted early in person since it was permitted where I voted.

The time a person votes will not have any effect on poll results, unless the voter dies before voting, or fails for some reason does not vote.

Hillary did lead in every traditional poll conducted in 2016.  Hilary got 48.2% of the vote.  Fox News predicted 48% in its poll conducted 11-3 to 5.   Trump received 45.93%. UPI/CVoter predicted 46% in its polls November 1-6 and October 30-November 5.  No other pollsters got that close.

Only the Los Angles Times had an on line poll conducted October 30-Nov 5 that had Trump winning 48% to to Hillary’s 43%.  Obviously the numbers were off.

Due to the way this country is dived, this scenario could occur again.

In 2016 the Democrats ran a woman, who many believed had violated the Espionage Act and was going to drag a husband who had lied under oath while President in a legal proceeding back into the White House with her to fool around more women.

This year they are running a man, who is clearly descending into dementia.  We will see how that works out.

Do not knock Rassy.    He came closest in 2008 predicting a vote of 52% 46% in a poll conducted 10/31 - 11-2.  The actual vote was 52.86% to 45.6%.  It went to head in 2012.  He did some bad polling in 2012.

[Rand]

This year they are running a man, who is clearly descending into dementia.  We will see how that works out.

So you’re basically the Joe Biden of Atlas.

[Arkansas Yankee]

This year they are running a man, who is clearly descending into dementia.  We will see how that works out.

So you’re basically the Joe Biden of Atlas.

Do you actually compare posting to Atlas to running the Federal Government. Let’s see how that flies