OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[ON Progressive]

Melanie Leneghan, the Jim Jordan endorsed candidate who lost to Balderson by 653 votes, is going through with a recount request for precincts in Delaware, Franklin, Licking, and Muskingum counties.

I don't have any expectations of this doing anything. Would be hilarious if it resulted in someone being within like 5 votes though.

[ON Progressive]

Melanie Leneghan, the Jim Jordan endorsed candidate who lost to Balderson by 653 votes, is going through with a recount request for precincts in Delaware, Franklin, Licking, and Muskingum counties.

I don't have any expectations of this doing anything. Would be hilarious if it resulted in someone being within like 5 votes though.

Hopefully this flips the primary.

I wonder what would happen if a tie happened.

[ON Progressive]

I don't know about you, but I highly doubt 52% of the electorate will be 65 or older.

[ON Progressive]

JMC poll:

Balderson (R) 46%
O'Connor (R) 35%

Also in the district:

Brown 42%
Renacci 36%

DeWine 42%
Cordray 41%

Trump approval: 54/40

Hard to believe that O’Connor would underperform by so much, but if this poll is accurate, it’s great for Cordray as well, since he’s almost certainly ahead statewide if he’s only down 1 in OH-12.

And Trump's numbers are a bit gaudy for such a Rockefeller Republican district.
Didn't the other polls show him just breaking even?

PPPs poll had Trump approval at 49-47, Monmouth had it at 48-47.

[ON Progressive]

Trump's approvals above 50% in OH and FL, so its not surprising that the GOP has small leads in these key races in OH 12.

If that were true, his approval would be over 50% nationwide instead of 42%.

[ON Progressive]

He has lower approvals in the Clinton states than the ones he won.

BREAKING NEWS: States that are willing to vote for a Republican like a Republican more than states that aren't willing to vote for a Republican as President.

The 58% approval in Ohio you talk about is one poll from Surveymonkey (LOL), and the article shows other polls with Trump underwater in Ohio.

[ON Progressive]

A Republican win here would indicate that the national environment for Democrats has moved substantially towards the Republicans since the PA-18 special.

And there are no signs to indicate that the national environment has gotten any better for Republicans in the mean time, which is why I think O Connor is significantly favored.

I love how the hot takes are beginning a month before the election even happens.

Early voting starts tomorrow -- it's not too early for the hot takes.

Is Ohio one of those states that does registration by party?

They don't. Closest thing they have is "last primary vote".

[ON Progressive]

The lack of publicity surrounding this race will help O’Connor. Lower turnout elections favor higher enthusiasm portions of the electorate. It’s not obvious to me, however, what happens if O’Connor wins. Does he then have to win three months later in a regular election? I’d imagine that would be tougher.

He is going for re-election 3 months later. The election will also be O'Connor vs. Balderson. I think if he wins here, he'll probably win in November. Rematches of special elections in a regular election tend to go to who won the special.

[ON Progressive]

DCCC is going up with ads tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1019960903767293953

Seems like a good sign.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/dannyoconnor1/status/1019983711813689347

O'Connor says he has a new poll showing him only down 45-43.

[ON Progressive]

Another guy named O'Connor (L) could join the race. WTH

http://radio.wosu.org/post/second-oconnor-could-join-ohios-12th-district-race#stream/0

That would be for the full term election in November, not this special election.

[ON Progressive]

Reminder to ignore anything hemorrhofoid posts.

[ON Progressive]

No, they changed the ratings, Cook to tossup

Cook doesn't have tilt ratings, and tilt ratings are garbage anyway.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1024416953333514240

DCCC has taken a media buy of $284,000.

[ON Progressive]

Remember when many people thought Balderson was inevitable because of a poll a month before the election showing him up double digits?

This is what we call a teachable moment.

I remember that and being told “Polls surely won’t tighten in two months like they did in PA-18”.

[ON Progressive]

Update:



Democrats improved in their absentee performance from yesterday, and Other voters continued to increase while Republicans dropped, possibly signalling a Democratic bump this weekend. Republicans continue to lag behind where they would be in a normal general election.

Dems went from 49.44% to 48.14% and that's improving?

[ON Progressive]

That is are the tables on who has voted based on the primary vote or non vote of the voter this year or 2016 or is it based on some type of registration form?

To answer your question, the parties in the chart are based on their last primary vote (2018/2016, mostly 2018) as Ohio does not have partisan registration.

Dems = Dem primary voter in their last primary
Reps = Republican primary voter in their last primary
Others = new voters, minor party primary voters, or those who have never voted in a primary

[ON Progressive]

I would guess Balderson by about 5 points. The Sarah Jeong story is really going to hurt O'Connor in this 87% white district.

LMFAO. Nobody in OH-12 cares about Sarah Jeong. She's a tech writer (so she's not even in a political section) in a newspaper that is from over 500 miles away. Hell, I bet most people in NYC don't know who the hell Sarah Jeong is.

Anyone who's going to vote based on Sarah Jeong was a Republican voter anyway.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1026616519277662208

Bashing the places that will cast well over 50% of the vote (it's possible these two counties are over 60%) is such a great electoral strategy.

[ON Progressive]

Don't freak out, but wow:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1026974904590258176

Just to compare to last primary vote, Dems were up 60.5% to 20.9% in the absentees. Not that we should be going crazy over early vote or anything for reasons mentioned earlier.

[ON Progressive]

I'm not liking the Licking County result, honestly.

[ON Progressive]

I'm not liking the Licking County result, honestly.

O'Connor's benchmark is -18%, and he's at -17.9 so he's okay there.

There's still a ton of e-day vote out in Licking though, so it'll drop below -18%

[ON Progressive]

Lol @ the people obsessing over Licking. DOC is hitting his benchmark there.

No he's not. He's at -17.9% margin and it'll only get worse for him.

[ON Progressive]

Lol @ the people obsessing over Licking. DOC is hitting his benchmark there.

No he's not. He's at -17.9% margin and it'll only get worse for him.

...-18 is his benchmark...

Read my full post. He's almost certain to do worse in the remaining e-day vote, and that'll pull him below the -18% benchmark.

[ON Progressive]

Where are the precincts that are still out?

Mostly Delaware with a baker's dozen worth of Franklin precincts.