Wisconsin Megathread

[Blackacre]

So.... any word from Feingold about a comeback? I'm not asking how well/poorly he'd do, I just want to know if he's at all interested

[Blackacre]

Yeah, if I wasn't enthralled with the prospect of Governor Russ Feingold in my TL (still think he could do it if he relented on Super PACs) I'd have Kind be Governor. He's the Tim Ryan of Wisconsin; the absolute best pick the state's Dems have

[Blackacre]

Politically, Kind is an awful Democrat. One of the biggest Wall Street/Free traders in the Midwest. Current chair of the New Democratic Collation. Definition of a 3rd Way Dem.

Yeah... he's a really right-winger

*eyeroll*

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/ron-kind/

1) I never called him a right-winger
2) These are votes since Trump has been President, it would be better to look at his entire Congressional record.
3) He is one of the most Wall Street friendly Democrats in the Midwest.

He's also what the D party needs in Wisconsin right now. Someone who knows how to campaign towards less urban voters and who is not from Dane or MKE county areas. The guy has done so well in his district that the GOP didn't even bother challenging him in 2016.

He also makes for an interesting test case.

Ron Kind, a Dem who's more centrist and has wall street ties, will share a ballot with Tammy Baldwin, who is neither of those things. I say to the Dems: this is exactly what you want. Put them both on the ballot together, and determine the direction your party should go using the scientific method. How much Baldwin outpolls/underpolls Kind will tell the WI Dems a lot about what direction they should take going forward. Of course, incumbency should be taken into consideration; I expect Baldwin will outpoll Kind for that very reason, but factor that out and you've got some solid data.

[Blackacre]

I only see him beating Walker in a big Democratic wave year. But then again, maybe he thinks he has a better chance of winning statewide than in his old district?

Also, I agree with Flying Spenstar. It's the same reason why someone like Ron Johnson did better than Tommy Thompson in WI. It's not really a moderate state by any means.

If Ron Kind and Tammy Baldwin share a ballot, and Kind significantly outperforms Baldwin, or does about the same (considering Baldwin has the advantage of incumbency and Kind does not) then the mode of thinking that WI isn't a moderate state needs to be challenged, and that's very good to know.

If, on the other hand, Baldwin does significantly better than Kind, then your conventional wisdom holds. And I really want to find out. It would be the equivalent of McCaskill surviving but Donnelly and Heitkamp getting defeated, a blow to the way we think about these states and these politicians.

[Blackacre]

I only see him beating Walker in a big Democratic wave year. But then again, maybe he thinks he has a better chance of winning statewide than in his old district?

Also, I agree with Flying Spenstar. It's the same reason why someone like Ron Johnson did better than Tommy Thompson in WI. It's not really a moderate state by any means.

If Ron Kind and Tammy Baldwin share a ballot, and Kind significantly outperforms Baldwin, or does about the same (considering Baldwin has the advantage of incumbency and Kind does not) then the mode of thinking that WI isn't a moderate state needs to be challenged, and that's very good to know.

If, on the other hand, Baldwin does significantly better than Kind, then your conventional wisdom holds. And I really want to find out. It would be the equivalent of McCaskill surviving but Donnelly and Heitkamp getting defeated, a blow to the way we think about these states and these politicians.

Totally agreed. I think this would be a better test if Kander were running instead of McCaskill, though. McCaskill (like Blunt, in many ways) has her own issues and is really just a terrible fit for her state. But generally speaking it does seem to be the case that more and more voters are rejecting "moderate" candidates or don't really care that they are moderates (think of Mark Kirk, Evan Bayh, etc.).

Of course there's also the possibility that both Kind and Baldwin lose (which would probably mean that WI has pulled a reverse VA on Dems) or that they both win (which would likely mean that 2018 is a big Democratic wave) by somewhat similar margins. But if anyone can win in WI in a Trump midterm, it's Baldwin. A Baldwin vs. Hovde race will be fascinating to watch, as Hovde basically resembles Ron Johnson and Baldwin can fire up the progressive base. WI is quite a fascinating state politically.

On McCaskill: if Kander were running instead of her, then it wouldn't be a surprise if he outdid Donnelly/Heitkamp/Manchin

On Kind and Baldwin: If they both get similar margins, win or lose, then it probably means that Wisconsin straight-ticketed its 2018 unless the candidates got different margins in different parts of the state. I'd still chalk that up as a win for Kind though, as he has the harder job. He's trying to take out an incumbent, while Baldwin IS the incumbent trying to hold her job.

However, I can also see a scenario where Baldwin and Kind both win outside the context of a wave. It would mean that the state straight-ticketed, and in a neutral year, probably makes for a reversion to the mean type election, with Republicans gaining Senate seats in low hanging fruit states, Democrats gaining some house seats but not enough for a majority, and Dems making large gains at the state level. (because they hit rock bottom in 2016 and have little to go but upward) TD's timeline has this exact scenario play out (though not with Kind as the gubernatorial candidate)

[Blackacre]

First Tim Ryan, now this. What's going on?

[Blackacre]

Honestly, I doubt Kind would have beaten Walker anyway. A lot of Democrats are probably scared after Johnson's and Trump's victory in WI last year. Still, I expect this race to get at least SOME attention, especially since the Senate race will be heavily contested as well. Baldwin should run ahead of whoever the Ds nominate for governor, but I wonder how much?

And winning by 6 and 7 points in a state as polarized as WI is not a bad showing at all IMO, especially considering that Walker has little crossover appeal.

The lesson Democrats should take from Johnson's victory in WI last year is as follows: DO NOT. REFUSE. SUPER PAC. MONEY.

[Blackacre]

Wiki has former ambassador Daniel Speckhard as a potential candidate, whats the deal with him?