Wisconsin Megathread

[Gass3268]

I do think these elections are indicative of a Democratic national environment however I think the strength is being overstated. In these April elections the turnout is skewed to the most motivated base of people. We can see that clearly with the insane results in Dane county. I do think Walker is in serious trouble but unlikely we will see blowouts like this for the Governor or Senate race in 2018.

I think the most disappointing result for me was the referendum. Weird how the state elected the guy who ran on abolishing the treasury department and then years later vote overwhelmingly against such action.

He won in two strong Republican years, most people probably didn't even know that was his position and just voted for him because he had an R next to his name.

[Gass3268]

P.S. per Miles, Dallet outperformed Obama 2008 in Dane by 15 points.

That's amazing. what explains her underperformence in Menominee County though?

Minority turnout was down across the board.

Miles' map here clearly shows this. Clinton did a much better in the Milwaukee precincts that are heavily black in the northside of the city and the Hispanic area in the southern part of the city. Contrast that to the Milwaukee precincts that are along Lake Michigan and Downtown, where Dallet did much better than Clinton among white Milwaukee voters.

It's also great to see Dallet improve in Wauwatosa, West Allis, and most of the Northshore suburbs. There are 3-5 assembly seats here that are gerrymandered into the WOW counties that could be won if the Democrats can run strong in these communities while keeping the margins lower in the WOW counties.

[MasterJedi]

In the end it wasn't a 23 vote margin for Steve Taylor, he lost by over 500, Oak Creek results weren't supported. No recount, the ahole is gone!

[Dr. Arch]

In the end it wasn't a 23 vote margin for Steve Taylor, he lost by over 500, Oak Creek results weren't supported. No recount, the ahole is gone!

Great news!

[Wiz in Wis]

J Miles Coleman has been producing some great maps by CD. In addition to Dane County and Greater Milwaukee, he's now done WI-08 and WI-01. What's really impressive is how well Dallet did in the Fox Valley. She clobbered Screnock in Appleton and Green Bay, and as far as I can tell, carried all but one of those cities major suburbs. I think the only sizeable town Screnock carried in Brown or Outagamie County was Suamico. Dallet carried all the rest, including De Pere, Allouez, Ashwabenon, Howard, Little Chute, Kimberly, Combined Locks, and Kaukauna.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/982092644422684672

[Gass3268]

Miles' map of WI-01 triggered my absolute hate of that district. It is the most gerrymandered district in the state. Even more so than WI-03.

[Gass3268]

J Miles Coleman has been producing some great maps by CD. In addition to Dane County and Greater Milwaukee, he's now done WI-08 and WI-01. What's really impressive is how well Dallet did in the Fox Valley. She clobbered Screnock in Appleton and Green Bay, and as far as I can tell, carried all but one of those cities major suburbs. I think the only sizeable town Screnock carried in Brown or Outagamie County was Suamico. Dallet carried all the rest, including De Pere, Allouez, Ashwabenon, Howard, Little Chute, Kimberly, Combined Locks, and Kaukauna.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/982092644422684672

A few of those Appleton suburbs are in WI-01.

[MasterJedi]

Miles' map of WI-01 triggered my absolute hate of that district. It is the most gerrymandered district in the state. Even more so than WI-03.

Well with the absolute shift in the party and leaving it, and not standing up to Trump in the slightest, Ryan will no longer be getting my vote.

[MasterJedi]

J Miles Coleman has been producing some great maps by CD. In addition to Dane County and Greater Milwaukee, he's now done WI-08 and WI-01. What's really impressive is how well Dallet did in the Fox Valley. She clobbered Screnock in Appleton and Green Bay, and as far as I can tell, carried all but one of those cities major suburbs. I think the only sizeable town Screnock carried in Brown or Outagamie County was Suamico. Dallet carried all the rest, including De Pere, Allouez, Ashwabenon, Howard, Little Chute, Kimberly, Combined Locks, and Kaukauna.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/982092644422684672

A few of those Appleton suburbs are in WI-01.

No they're not, did you mean WI-06?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I understand the Dane numbers, but what is going on in the 8th? It doesn't seem like #Resistance territory to me. It's not a particularly urban/suburban district either. Any Wisconsin expert care to weigh in?

[Gass3268]

J Miles Coleman has been producing some great maps by CD. In addition to Dane County and Greater Milwaukee, he's now done WI-08 and WI-01. What's really impressive is how well Dallet did in the Fox Valley. She clobbered Screnock in Appleton and Green Bay, and as far as I can tell, carried all but one of those cities major suburbs. I think the only sizeable town Screnock carried in Brown or Outagamie County was Suamico. Dallet carried all the rest, including De Pere, Allouez, Ashwabenon, Howard, Little Chute, Kimberly, Combined Locks, and Kaukauna.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/982092644422684672

A few of those Appleton suburbs are in WI-01.

No they're not, did you mean WI-06?

Sorry, I meant WI SD-01.

[Gass3268]

Did Dallet end up winning SD-01? I think it’s a couple points to the right of the 8th

Looking at this map and reviewing the Manitowoc County numbers, I think so.

[mcmikk]

Hm, I never noticed this before, but it appears Tony Evers has improved and updated his website a bit.

He has a surprisingly in-depth and comprehensive issues page. Idk, I just thought this was cool and I'd share it with everyone.

[Dr. Arch]

Hm, I never noticed this before, but it appears Tony Evers has improved and updated his website a bit.

He has a surprisingly in-depth and comprehensive issues page. Idk, I just thought this was cool and I'd share it with everyone.

Yep. That's eons ahead of what he originally had!

[Duke of York]

Hm, I never noticed this before, but it appears Tony Evers has improved and updated his website a bit.

He has a surprisingly in-depth and comprehensive issues page. Idk, I just thought this was cool and I'd share it with everyone.

I think he's the strongest candidate to take out Walker.

[MAINEiac4434]

Evers is one of my favorite candidates this cycle. He’s probably already made himself a top contender to replace DeCos in the next Democratic Administration.

[redjohn]

Still think Walker has a better chance against Evers; Mitchell would almost certainly win the general against Walker. With the Supreme Court landslide, Evers seems in a better position than I thought previously, but it's still going to be a rough race in which Walker could very possibly win re-election.

[MasterJedi]

Still think Walker has a better chance against Evers; Mitchell would almost certainly win the general against Walker. With the Supreme Court landslide, Evers seems in a better position than I thought previously, but it's still going to be a rough race in which Walker could very possibly win re-election.

Mitchell really is a nobody, he's not well known, has no real strength out in the country which Evers has won multiple times in the past and who the Dems need to win the race.

[Scottholes 2.0]

God, I really hope Evers beats Walker, especially after Dallet's win.

Also, Scott Walker seems very terrified lately.

[redjohn]

Still think Walker has a better chance against Evers; Mitchell would almost certainly win the general against Walker. With the Supreme Court landslide, Evers seems in a better position than I thought previously, but it's still going to be a rough race in which Walker could very possibly win re-election.

Mitchell really is a nobody, he's not well known, has no real strength out in the country which Evers has won multiple times in the past and who the Dems need to win the race.

And how many people know who Evers is? Name recognition at this point doesn't matter that much, in my opinion. The last poll (Marquette) had 45% of Democrats undecided. Mitchell would be able to turnout more voters in Milwaukee, where Democrats have underperformed in recent elections.

[mcmikk]

Still think Walker has a better chance against Evers; Mitchell would almost certainly win the general against Walker. With the Supreme Court landslide, Evers seems in a better position than I thought previously, but it's still going to be a rough race in which Walker could very possibly win re-election.

Mitchell really is a nobody, he's not well known, has no real strength out in the country which Evers has won multiple times in the past and who the Dems need to win the race.

And how many people know who Evers is? Name recognition at this point doesn't matter that much, in my opinion. The last poll (Marquette) had 45% of Democrats undecided. Mitchell would be able to turnout more voters in Milwaukee, where Democrats have underperformed in recent elections.

We don't really need Milwaukee as much as we need someone who can perform well(or at least not tank nearly as bad as Hillary) in rural areas and out in Driftless. Milwaukee had pretty lackluster turnout in the Supreme Court and we still won by 12 points because Dallet did pretty well in rural areas and Dane County had murderous turnout rates.

[MasterJedi]

Still think Walker has a better chance against Evers; Mitchell would almost certainly win the general against Walker. With the Supreme Court landslide, Evers seems in a better position than I thought previously, but it's still going to be a rough race in which Walker could very possibly win re-election.

Mitchell really is a nobody, he's not well known, has no real strength out in the country which Evers has won multiple times in the past and who the Dems need to win the race.

And how many people know who Evers is? Name recognition at this point doesn't matter that much, in my opinion. The last poll (Marquette) had 45% of Democrats undecided. Mitchell would be able to turnout more voters in Milwaukee, where Democrats have underperformed in recent elections.

We don't really need Milwaukee as much as we need someone who can perform well(or at least not tank nearly as bad as Hillary) in rural areas and out in Driftless. Milwaukee had pretty lackluster turnout in the Supreme Court and we still won by 12 points because Dallet did pretty well in rural areas and Dane County had murderous turnout rates.

Exactly, you can pain Mitchell as a "Milwaukee liberal" or others as a "Madison liberal", you can't do that with Evers.

[Dr. Arch]

Still think Walker has a better chance against Evers; Mitchell would almost certainly win the general against Walker. With the Supreme Court landslide, Evers seems in a better position than I thought previously, but it's still going to be a rough race in which Walker could very possibly win re-election.

Mitchell really is a nobody, he's not well known, has no real strength out in the country which Evers has won multiple times in the past and who the Dems need to win the race.

And how many people know who Evers is? Name recognition at this point doesn't matter that much, in my opinion. The last poll (Marquette) had 45% of Democrats undecided. Mitchell would be able to turnout more voters in Milwaukee, where Democrats have underperformed in recent elections.

We don't really need Milwaukee as much as we need someone who can perform well(or at least not tank nearly as bad as Hillary) in rural areas and out in Driftless. Milwaukee had pretty lackluster turnout in the Supreme Court and we still won by 12 points because Dallet did pretty well in rural areas and Dane County had murderous turnout rates.

Exactly, you can pain Mitchell as a "Milwaukee liberal" or others as a "Madison liberal", you can't do that with Evers.

And I'm not a fan of MKE right now. We can't count on them for anything it seems. It seems that MKE voters couldn't care less, even with a MKE native on the ticket.

[MasterJedi]

Still think Walker has a better chance against Evers; Mitchell would almost certainly win the general against Walker. With the Supreme Court landslide, Evers seems in a better position than I thought previously, but it's still going to be a rough race in which Walker could very possibly win re-election.

Mitchell really is a nobody, he's not well known, has no real strength out in the country which Evers has won multiple times in the past and who the Dems need to win the race.

And how many people know who Evers is? Name recognition at this point doesn't matter that much, in my opinion. The last poll (Marquette) had 45% of Democrats undecided. Mitchell would be able to turnout more voters in Milwaukee, where Democrats have underperformed in recent elections.

We don't really need Milwaukee as much as we need someone who can perform well(or at least not tank nearly as bad as Hillary) in rural areas and out in Driftless. Milwaukee had pretty lackluster turnout in the Supreme Court and we still won by 12 points because Dallet did pretty well in rural areas and Dane County had murderous turnout rates.

Exactly, you can pain Mitchell as a "Milwaukee liberal" or others as a "Madison liberal", you can't do that with Evers.

And I'm not a fan of MKE right now. We can't count on them for anything it seems. It seems that MKE voters couldn't care less, even with a MKE native on the ticket.

Much of the Dem base in Milwaukee is the poor minority communities who are so busy just trying to exist and not drown in life that they don't have the luxury of politics to follow these elections outside of the big ones. Which is sad since so many of these elections have such a large impact on their day to day lives and their ability to survive.

[KingSweden]

Who’s the likeliest LG choice for Dems?