Wisconsin Megathread

[Gass3268]

Still nothing from Door, Douglas, Sauk, and Monroe, all of which will be easy liberal wins.

Not sure on Monroe

I was wrong!

[LimoLiberal]

Someone was asking about the Minneapolis burbs.

Polk county went from 61-33 Trump to 51-49 Screnock
Saint Croix went from 55-37 Trump to 52-48 Liberals.
Pierce went from 53-39 Trump to 55-45 Liberals.
Dunn went from 52-41 Trump to 57-43 Liberals.

 

[LimoLiberal]

Biggest swing was Pepin county, went from 59-36 Trump to 56-44 Liberals.

[Gass3268]

Dane County turnout was at 25.5%

[LimoLiberal]

Dane County turnout was at 25.5%

Holy.... Pretty sure 2016 spring primary was like 18%

[Gass3268]

Still zero reports from Door, Lincoln, Sauk, Sawyer counties.

[Gass3268]

Still zero reports from Door, Lincoln, Sauk, Sawyer counties.

Door is in! Dallet won outright!

[LimoLiberal]

Still nothing from Door, Douglas, Sauk, and Monroe, all of which will be easy liberal wins.

Not sure on Monroe

I was wrong!

What was Monroe? The county figures don’t work for me on iphone

51-49 Liberals.

[Gass3268]

Still nothing from Door, Douglas, Sauk, and Monroe, all of which will be easy liberal wins.

Not sure on Monroe

I was wrong!

What was Monroe? The county figures don’t work for me on iphone

Burns 457 17%
Dallet 864 33%
Screnock 1,293 49%

[LimoLiberal]

Horrendous showing for Screnock in Door County - loses 61-39 to the Liberals.

[LimoLiberal]

It's currently Liberals 53.6 to Screnick 46.4

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This election shows just how important Milwaukee county is for dems in Wisconsin. They did very well outside of Milwaukee and WoW, but the margin isn't nearly as good as that would reflect because of poor performance and turnout in Milwaukee.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Someone was asking about the Minneapolis burbs.

Polk county went from 61-33 Trump to 51-49 Screnock
Saint Croix went from 55-37 Trump to 52-48 Liberals.
Pierce went from 53-39 Trump to 55-45 Liberals.
Dunn went from 52-41 Trump to 57-43 Liberals.

 

What the hell is going on in St. Croix county and surrounding areas? The special election was a huge trend left and now tonight. This place region withstood the Obama Badger state sweep of '08. Hudson just doesn't seem like a place that would be open to voting Dem downballot. It's not known for manufacturing tendencies, wealthy champagne liberalism, and it's mostly white flight from the Twin Cities.

[Gass3268]

This election shows just how important Milwaukee county is for dems in Wisconsin. They did very well outside of Milwaukee and WoW, but the margin isn't nearly as good as that would reflect because of poor performance and turnout in Milwaukee.

Yup, margin actually wasn't too different than what Walker did in 2014.

[Dr. Arch]

Someone was asking about the Minneapolis burbs.

Polk county went from 61-33 Trump to 51-49 Screnock
Saint Croix went from 55-37 Trump to 52-48 Liberals.
Pierce went from 53-39 Trump to 55-45 Liberals.
Dunn went from 52-41 Trump to 57-43 Liberals.

 

What the hell is going on in St. Croix county and surrounding areas? The special election was a huge trend left and now tonight. This place region withstood the Obama Badger state sweep of '08. Hudson just doesn't seem like a place that would be open to voting Dem downballot. It's not known for manufacturing tendencies, wealthy champagne liberalism, and it's mostly white flight from the Twin Cities.

New trends and shifts arise as new voting constituencies form. In this case, it's likely a hard swing against the brand of politics Trump has championed into the Republican party and to the "conservative" brand as a result.

[TJ in Oregon]

Someone was asking about the Minneapolis burbs.

Polk county went from 61-33 Trump to 51-49 Screnock
Saint Croix went from 55-37 Trump to 52-48 Liberals.
Pierce went from 53-39 Trump to 55-45 Liberals.
Dunn went from 52-41 Trump to 57-43 Liberals.

 

What the hell is going on in St. Croix county and surrounding areas? The special election was a huge trend left and now tonight. This place region withstood the Obama Badger state sweep of '08. Hudson just doesn't seem like a place that would be open to voting Dem downballot. It's not known for manufacturing tendencies, wealthy champagne liberalism, and it's mostly white flight from the Twin Cities.

New trends and shifts arise as new voting constituencies form. In this case, it's likely a hard swing against the brand of politics Trump has championed into the Republican party and to the "conservative" brand as a result.

Most likely there is simply a turnout difference between the two parties as far as who would bother showing up for a (nominally) nonpartisan spring primary election.

These numbers look vaguely good for the Democrats but I wouldn't read much into it. The real election is in a couple months. I'm not saying Dallet won't win, but it isn't as simple as adding the two Dems' percentages together and comparing to Screnock.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I assume the problems in Milwaukee would be fixed by black turnout during the regular election, however the numbers in Kenosha and Racine counties are outright brutal for the Dems.

[Gass3268]

Liberals won Sauk, Screnock's home county.

[Gass3268]

Here is what the combo map looks like now. I'm going to bed, hopefully we're at 100% by the time I wake up.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Here is what the combo map looks like now. I'm going to bed, hopefully we're at 100% by the time I wake up.

Great map. Eyeballing it, I think Liberals might have won Duffy's district and (of course the Madison/Milwaukee/Driftless triad), but I'm not totally sure. 

[mcmikk]

Here is what the combo map looks like now. I'm going to bed, hopefully we're at 100% by the time I wake up.

Looks good, this is about what Democrats need to win statewide. As important as turnout in Madison and Milwaukee are, Driftless pretty much decides elections here.

[Koharu]

It's important to note that Dallet was not endorsed by the Democratic party and that she very much ran as a non-partisan. She may be more left-leaning, but using this election to try to call trends is going to be very misleading.

Regarding Milwaukee county: This is where, unfortunately, the ID laws have had the biggest impact. This was seen in the 2016 general election, too, and I think it will continue to depress turnout in the Milwaukee and surrounding area, especially for Democrats.

[Wiz in Wis]

Final map by party total, 100% Reporting:

[Dr. Arch]

Final map by party total, 100% Reporting:

Solid map. Racine is really the odd duck here.

[windjammer]

Who is the favorite to win the run off?