Wisconsin Megathread

[RogueBeaver]

Walker says he'll be fundraising next year in prep for 2018.

[windjammer]

This little sh*t will likely be reelected (assuming Clinto wins)

[Gass3268]

This little sh*t will likely be reelected (assuming Clinto wins)

Probably, but his approval ratings are in the toilet right now and I can't imagine the John Doe leaks are going to help.

[Deblano]

Walker says he'll be fundraising next year in prep for 2018.

Huh. I guess he is planning to run for a third term. My condolences to Wisconsin.

[Heisenberg]

This race will line up with the Senate race. There won't be many Walker/Baldwin voters.

Absolutely. There is a 98% chance the same party wins both.

[Kingpoleon]

This race will line up with the Senate race. There won't be many Walker/Baldwin voters.

Absolutely. There is a 98% chance the same party wins both.

The GOP bench is so short I'm not quite sure about that. Duffy could beat Baldwin as Cieslewicz could beat Walker. Besides that, there's Paul Jadin, a handful of unambitious congressmen, Treasurer Matt Adamczyk, Attorney General Brad Schimel, Robin Vos, and Mary Lazich. The latter two are little known Assembly GOP leaders, while Schimel and Adamczyk only got elected in 2014.

The Democrats have Ron Kind, Peter Barca, Chris Larson, Tom Barett, Mark Pocan, Joe Parisi, Kathleen Falk, Tom Nelson, Chris Abele, and Jonathan Brostoff. Their bench is far, far deeper.

[MasterJedi]

This race will line up with the Senate race. There won't be many Walker/Baldwin voters.

Absolutely. There is a 98% chance the same party wins both.

The GOP bench is so short I'm not quite sure about that. Duffy could beat Baldwin as Cieslewicz could beat Walker. Besides that, there's Paul Jadin, a handful of unambitious congressmen, Treasurer Matt Adamczyk, Attorney General Brad Schimel, Robin Vos, and Mary Lazich. The latter two are little known Assembly GOP leaders, while Schimel and Adamczyk only got elected in 2014.

The Democrats have Ron Kind, Peter Barca, Chris Larson, Tom Barett, Mark Pocan, Joe Parisi, Kathleen Falk, Tom Nelson, Chris Abele, and Jonathan Brostoff. Their bench is far, far deeper.

Kind and Barca are pretty Milquetoast as is Barrett who likely won't run again. No idea why you bring up Cieslewicz, he's basically a nobody now.

Schilling is the best bet in my opinion to take out Walker, Vinehout would also be a good choice. Other good choices are Abele and Nelson but I doubt either could win a nomination being socially liberal and somewhat fiscally conservative.

As for replacing Walker there's really no one spectacular. Vos probably wants to keep being Herr Vos, dictator of the assembly. Would be a crowded field.

[President Johnson]

If Hillary wins, we won't get rid of this fool. Bad!

[Gass3268]

This race will line up with the Senate race. There won't be many Walker/Baldwin voters.

Absolutely. There is a 98% chance the same party wins both.

The GOP bench is so short I'm not quite sure about that. Duffy could beat Baldwin as Cieslewicz could beat Walker. Besides that, there's Paul Jadin, a handful of unambitious congressmen, Treasurer Matt Adamczyk, Attorney General Brad Schimel, Robin Vos, and Mary Lazich. The latter two are little known Assembly GOP leaders, while Schimel and Adamczyk only got elected in 2014.

The Democrats have Ron Kind, Peter Barca, Chris Larson, Tom Barett, Mark Pocan, Joe Parisi, Kathleen Falk, Tom Nelson, Chris Abele, and Jonathan Brostoff. Their bench is far, far deeper.

Kind and Barca are pretty Milquetoast as is Barrett who likely won't run again. No idea why you bring up Cieslewicz, he's basically a nobody now.

Schilling is the best bet in my opinion to take out Walker, Vinehout would also be a good choice. Other good choices are Abele and Nelson but I doubt either could win a nomination being socially liberal and somewhat fiscally conservative.

As for replacing Walker there's really no one spectacular. Vos probably wants to keep being Herr Vos, dictator of the assembly. Would be a crowded field.

I agree on Schilling and Vinehout. Both would be acceptable to the liberal base (unlike Kind or Abele), yet they also wouldn't be offensive to middle of the road voters. Also they both come from a region of the state that Democrats have to win in order to win statewide.

[MasterJedi]

Walker has said he wouldn't run for a fourth term because "his wife would kill him".

[RogueBeaver]

Abele and Cullen out.

[Dr. Arch]

If Hillary wins, we won't get rid of this fool. Bad!

We probably still won't. I just want to close my eyes.

[Gass3268]

If Hillary wins, we won't get rid of this fool. Bad!

We probably still won't. I just want to close my eyes.

I don't know, I think his Presidential campaign and the education cuts might have resulted in some permanent damage. We'll have to see what the Republicans push here over the next 2 years.

[Dr. Arch]

There's a candidate already starting a campaign for the 2018 gov race here. He has some good ideas, including a high speed rail that would connect from Chicago through WI to the Twin Cities.

Anyone heard of him before?
http://bobharlow.net

[Maxwell]

There's a candidate already starting a campaign for the 2018 gov race here. He has some good ideas, including a high speed rail that would connect from Chicago through WI to the Twin Cities.

Anyone heard of him before?
http://bobharlow.net

perennial candidate - he ran in CA-18 (no, really) and got dead last.

[Drew]

Shilling not running for Governor in 2018.

http://m.lacrossetribune.com/news/local/sen-jennifer-shilling-rules-out-run-for-governor-in/article_a92b4891-2392-58b7-a5e9-1ac15ff8cbe3.html

[MasterJedi]

Shilling not running for Governor in 2018.

http://m.lacrossetribune.com/news/local/sen-jennifer-shilling-rules-out-run-for-governor-in/article_a92b4891-2392-58b7-a5e9-1ac15ff8cbe3.html

Not surprising after she barely won re-election, but I think she was the best chance to defeat Walker. Unless something changes in 2 years I don't think Walker can lose.

[Gass3268]

Shilling not running for Governor in 2018.

http://m.lacrossetribune.com/news/local/sen-jennifer-shilling-rules-out-run-for-governor-in/article_a92b4891-2392-58b7-a5e9-1ac15ff8cbe3.html

Not surprising after she barely won re-election, but I think she was the best chance to defeat Walker. Unless something changes in 2 years I don't think Walker can lose.

It will all depend on the national environment, especially with his approvals sitting in the low 40's.

[Wiz in Wis]

If Walker runs for reelection, I think he stands a worse chance of winning than a generic R (like Duffy or Gallagher). Of course, the Dem bench is thinner... and they cannot nominate someone from Milwaukee or Madison. Vinehout seems to be the best choice, IMHO, unless God is real and Aaron Rodgers runs.

Baldwin, ironically, is probably a lot safer because of Trump. I assume Duffy, Grothman or Clarke will be the GOP nominee for Senate.

[Gass3268]

If Walker runs for reelection, I think he stands a worse chance of winning than a generic R (like Duffy or Gallagher). Of course, the Dem bench is thinner... and they cannot nominate someone from Milwaukee or Madison. Vinehout seems to be the best choice, IMHO, unless God is real and Aaron Rodgers runs.

Baldwin, ironically, is probably a lot safer because of Trump. I assume Duffy, Grothman or Clarke will be the GOP nominee for Senate.

Duffy would have a shot, Grothman or Clarke would get slaughtered.

[Heisenberg]

^Grothman.. yeah, probably. Clarke? Nah. There aren't many Republicans who would get slaughtered in a midterm year in Wisconsin.

Growthman should get primaried, maybe by Scott Fitzgerald or someone. He comes across as an idiot.
Duffy should run next time, and then Gallagher runs for Johnson's seat in 2022. I like both, and they'd make a good young Senate duo that would stick around for decades and become entrenched quickly.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

^Grothman.. yeah, probably. Clarke? Nah. There aren't many Republicans who would get slaughtered in a midterm year in Wisconsin.

Clarke would probably lose in a midterm year by about 15 points (maybe 8-12 if it's a 2014-level Republican wave and he's facing a weak Democrat).  I could easily see him losing in a Presidential year by 18-20% if he's facing a strong Democratic candidate or it is a mildy Democratic-leaning cycle (ex: 2012-type environment).  I think the fact that we've have had two large, back-to-back Republican waves has caused some folks to mistake 2014 (or even 2010) style midterms as the norm.  Just as Republicans had a bonafide wave election in 2016 despite it being a Presidential year (and one that could easily be no more than a fluke).  Regardless of what happens in the Senate, given how reliant their house majority is on gerrymandering and how many Governorships are up, the Republicans should be terrified by the prospect of a potential 2018 Democratic wave.

[MasterJedi]

^Grothman.. yeah, probably. Clarke? Nah. There aren't many Republicans who would get slaughtered in a midterm year in Wisconsin.

Clarke would probably lose in a midterm year by about 15 points (maybe 8-12 if it's a 2014-level Republican wave and he's facing a weak Democrat).  I could easily see him losing in a Presidential year by 18-20% if he's facing a strong Democratic candidate or it is a mildy Democratic-leaning cycle (ex: 2012-type environment).  I think the fact that we've have had two large, back-to-back Republican waves has caused some folks to mistake 2014 (or even 2010) style midterms as the norm.  Just as Republicans had a bonafide wave election in 2016 despite it being a Presidential year (and one that could easily be no more than a fluke).  Regardless of what happens in the Senate, given how reliant their house majority is on gerrymandering and how many Governorships are up, the Republicans should be terrified by the prospect of a potential 2018 Democratic wave.

Clarke wins because his primary is in February, runs as D and gets a lot of crossover support with no contested D primaries in the county at the same time. He also does get a fair amount of Black Dems to vote for him just because he's black. Just to clarify, the north side voted for the conservative over the actual liberal because they were black in the DA election and the conservative burbs voted for the liberal DA because she was unqualified. He has been squeaking by the primaries, someone needs to defeat him in 2020.

[publicunofficial]

^Grothman.. yeah, probably. Clarke? Nah. There aren't many Republicans who would get slaughtered in a midterm year in Wisconsin.

Growthman should get primaried, maybe by Scott Fitzgerald or someone. He comes across as an idiot.
Duffy should run next time, and then Gallagher runs for Johnson's seat in 2022. I like both, and they'd make a good young Senate duo that would stick around for decades and become entrenched quickly.

Sean Duffy is just as big an idiot as Grothman. He's just more subtle.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

^Grothman.. yeah, probably. Clarke? Nah. There aren't many Republicans who would get slaughtered in a midterm year in Wisconsin.

Clarke would probably lose in a midterm year by about 15 points (maybe 8-12 if it's a 2014-level Republican wave and he's facing a weak Democrat).  I could easily see him losing in a Presidential year by 18-20% if he's facing a strong Democratic candidate or it is a mildy Democratic-leaning cycle (ex: 2012-type environment).  I think the fact that we've have had two large, back-to-back Republican waves has caused some folks to mistake 2014 (or even 2010) style midterms as the norm.  Just as Republicans had a bonafide wave election in 2016 despite it being a Presidential year (and one that could easily be no more than a fluke).  Regardless of what happens in the Senate, given how reliant their house majority is on gerrymandering and how many Governorships are up, the Republicans should be terrified by the prospect of a potential 2018 Democratic wave.

Clarke wins because his primary is in February, runs as D and gets a lot of crossover support with no contested D primaries in the county at the same time. He also does get a fair amount of Black Dems to vote for him just because he's black. Just to clarify, the north side voted for the conservative over the actual liberal because they were black in the DA election and the conservative burbs voted for the liberal DA because she was unqualified. He has been squeaking by the primaries, someone needs to defeat him in 2020.

I meant if he ran in a statewide race.