Wisconsin Megathread

[Wiz in Wis]

Evers' fundraising numbers are in. He currently boasts "2400+" donors, an average donation of $85.23, donors from 71 of Wisconsin's 72 counties, with 94% of his donations coming from Wisconsin. He's currently raised $312,000 without loaning his campaign any money.

Wonder what the odd county out is?

Either Florence or Menominee

[Gass3268]

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Walker is behind where he was in fundraising compared to 4 years ago.

[Dr. Arch]

If the Governor's election goes anything like SD-10 went today, Walker is done.

[mcmikk]

If the Governor's election goes anything like SD-10 went today, Walker is done.

[Rookie Yinzer]

how did Trump do in the district that flipped tonight?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

how did Trump do in the district that flipped tonight?

55-38

[Gass3268]

If SD-10/AD-58 are any indicator of how things will be in November here are my ratings (I'm probably a bit too cautious here):

SD-01 - Lean R (Toss-Up in the Special Election)
SD-03 - Safe D
SD-05 - Lean D (Dem Pick Up)
SD-07 - Safe D
SD-09 - Likely R
SD-11 - Lean R
SD-13 - Lean R
SD-15 - Safe D
SD-17 - Lean D (Dem Pick Up)
SD-19 - Toss Up (Calling A Dem Pick Up Right Now)
SD-21 - Likely R
SD-23 - Lean R
SD-25 - Likely D
SD-27 - Safe D
SD-29 - Likely R
SD-31 - Likely D
SD-33 - Likely R

[windjammer]

If SD-10/AD-58 are any indicator of how things will be in November here are my ratings (I'm probably a bit too cautious here):

SD-01 - Lean R (Toss-Up in the Special Election)
SD-03 - Safe D
SD-05 - Lean D (Dem Pick Up)
SD-07 - Safe D
SD-09 - Likely R
SD-11 - Lean R
SD-13 - Lean R
SD-15 - Safe D
SD-17 - Lean D (Dem Pick Up)
SD-19 - Toss Up (Calling A Dem Pick Up Right Now)
SD-21 - Likely R
SD-23 - Lean R
SD-25 - Likely D
SD-27 - Safe D
SD-29 - Likely R
SD-31 - Likely D
SD-33 - Likely R

When is scheduled the SD-01's special election?

[Gass3268]

If SD-10/AD-58 are any indicator of how things will be in November here are my ratings (I'm probably a bit too cautious here):

SD-01 - Lean R (Toss-Up in the Special Election)
SD-03 - Safe D
SD-05 - Lean D (Dem Pick Up)
SD-07 - Safe D
SD-09 - Likely R
SD-11 - Lean R
SD-13 - Lean R
SD-15 - Safe D
SD-17 - Lean D (Dem Pick Up)
SD-19 - Toss Up (Calling A Dem Pick Up Right Now)
SD-21 - Likely R
SD-23 - Lean R
SD-25 - Likely D
SD-27 - Safe D
SD-29 - Likely R
SD-31 - Likely D
SD-33 - Likely R

When is scheduled the SD-01's special election?

Not sure if a date has been scheduled yet. It is possible that they just wait until November.

Edit: Walker has been resistant to calling special elections for SD-01 and AD-42. AD-42 would probably be a flip with the current environment.

[Gass3268]

Foxconn Deal is going to cost Wisconsin taxpayers $4.5 billion!

[Wiz in Wis]

If SD-10/AD-58 are any indicator of how things will be in November here are my ratings (I'm probably a bit too cautious here):

SD-01 - Lean R (Toss-Up in the Special Election)
SD-03 - Safe D
SD-05 - Lean D (Dem Pick Up)
SD-07 - Safe D
SD-09 - Likely R
SD-11 - Lean R
SD-13 - Lean R
SD-15 - Safe D
SD-17 - Lean D (Dem Pick Up)
SD-19 - Toss Up (Calling A Dem Pick Up Right Now)
SD-21 - Likely R
SD-23 - Lean R
SD-25 - Likely D
SD-27 - Safe D
SD-29 - Likely R
SD-31 - Likely D
SD-33 - Likely R

I'd shift SD-01, SD-09, SD-23, and SD-29 all one notch Dem using your rankings.

It should be noted that SD-10 had 2 UW campuses (River Falls & Stout) in it. While we don't know what the turnout was, the Dem won landslides in Dunn and Pierce counties. That should make SD-17 (Platteville) a pickup and SD-31 (Eau Claire) an easy hold.

[Wiz in Wis]

Not that he a shot in hell at winning, but:

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Yeah, why would the young African American have a shot at winning in this large field of other credible challengers

[Dr. Arch]

Not that he a shot in hell at winning, but:

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Yeah, why would the young African American have a shot at winning in this large field of other credible challengers

Mitchell already has a record of failure. No thanks.

[Gass3268]

Here are some SD-10 maps if anyone is interested:







Source

[GeorgiaModerate]

Walker looking to shore up Obamacare marketplace in WI:

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[Dr. Arch]

Walker looking to shore up Obamacare marketplace in WI:

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lol, I hate that he's such a snake.

[IceSpear]

I wonder how many Walker/Baldwin voters there's going to be in the WOW counties. I'm also curious if there's going to end up being more there or in the rurals.

[junior chįmp]

Walker looking to shore up Obamacare marketplace in WI:

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Like I said: Walker is finished

[mcmikk]

I wonder how many Walker/Baldwin voters there's going to be in the WOW counties. I'm also curious if there's going to end up being more there or in the rurals.

That will be interesting to see, if there are any. Walker hasn't exactly distanced himself from Trump. He wanks Trump off constantly ever since he won the nomination. That said, I'm thinking there will be more in WOW than in rural areas, unless the Gov nominee ends up being Paul Soglin or someone like that. But it won't, it will be Evers. Walker was successfully able to prey on rural-urban resentment in previous campaigns, but since Evers isn't from Madison or Milwaukee, and is generally pretty inoffensive and seems like a guy that can communicate with rural voters particularly in Western Wisconsin. As for Baldwin, she has her own strengths and she's pretty good in Western Wisconsin so I'm thinking she and Evers will get similar margins there.

TLDR chances are if Baldwin does significantly better than Evers, it will be because of ticket splitters in WOW. That's my hunch.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm having a tough time picturing what sort of Milwaukee suburban voter voted for Bush twice, voted for McCain and Romney, and voted for Walker three times amongst all that, but then considered Trump a bridge too far and is now voting against all Republicans because of that.

[mcmikk]

I'm having a tough time picturing what sort of Milwaukee suburban voter voted for Bush twice, voted for McCain and Romney, and voted for Walker three times amongst all that, but then considered Trump a bridge too far and is now voting against all Republicans because of that.

Ones in WOW, where Ron Johnson outperformed Trump by roughly 30,000 votes in 2016, and in a midterm where upballot trends will start to translate downballot. See: Arkansas Senate Election, 2010.

[IceSpear]

I'm having a tough time picturing what sort of Milwaukee suburban voter voted for Bush twice, voted for McCain and Romney, and voted for Walker three times amongst all that, but then considered Trump a bridge too far and is now voting against all Republicans because of that.

Is it really hard to see how McCain, Romney, etc. differ drastically from Trump?

I doubt they'll "vote against all Republicans" though. My guess is they still come in heavy for Walker.

[Gustaf]

I'm having a tough time picturing what sort of Milwaukee suburban voter voted for Bush twice, voted for McCain and Romney, and voted for Walker three times amongst all that, but then considered Trump a bridge too far and is now voting against all Republicans because of that.

Is it really hard to see how McCain, Romney, etc. differ drastically from Trump?

I doubt they'll "vote against all Republicans" though. My guess is they still come in heavy for Walker.

I mean, don't the results in places like NOVA suggest there are indeed a bunch of such voters?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I'm having a tough time picturing what sort of Milwaukee suburban voter voted for Bush twice, voted for McCain and Romney, and voted for Walker three times amongst all that, but then considered Trump a bridge too far and is now voting against all Republicans because of that.

Is it really hard to see how McCain, Romney, etc. differ drastically from Trump?

I doubt they'll "vote against all Republicans" though. My guess is they still come in heavy for Walker.

I mean, don't the results in places like NOVA suggest there are indeed a bunch of such voters?

Yes, although WOW has a lot more of these consistent-R voters than NoVa, the latter of which had a lot of its moderate R support fall through in 2006-2008 (when Tom Davis and John Warner retired). Then again, the Republican last state-office holders in Northern Virginia (finally) got voted out this year. I think it's possible a lot of these voters defect for just this cycle in WOW but I still have a hard time seeing them leaving Walker. Then again, the main story in Virginia was Fairfax/PW/LoCo Republicans ditching their incumbent Republican delegates, so maybe this is possible. I'm still hoping that we can win the race by swinging Driftless area Dems rather than hoping for WOW defections.

[Gass3268]

Conservative Justice Michael Gableman decided not to run for reelection this year and there are three people running to replace him: Madison business attorney Tim Burns, Milwaukee County Judge Rebecca Dallet and Sauk County Judge Michael Screnock. Burns and Dallet are liberals and Screnock is the conservative.

Top two will go on to face each other in the main spring election on April 3, 2018. Given the national environment, there is a good chance that the liberals could take the seat and move the court back to only a 4-3 advantage for the conservatives. It also is just another example of how much folks screwed up with no liberal running last year when Tony Evers dominated his race for State Superintendent.