Wisconsin Megathread

[IceSpear]

So Wisconsin posters: If you had to put money on it right now, does Walker win re-election?

[Dr. Arch]

So Wisconsin posters: If you had to put money on it right now, does Walker win re-election?

No. He's plagued by FoxConn backroom deals, the attorney scandal with Evers, and the fact that nothing positive has really gotten done in the last 8 years. If Wisconsin follows suit with its history, it should flip.

[mcmikk]

So Wisconsin posters: If you had to put money on it right now, does Walker win re-election?

No. He's plagued by FoxConn backroom deals, the attorney scandal with Evers, and the fact that nothing positive has really gotten done in the last 8 years. If Wisconsin follows suit with its history, it should flip.

This. Not to mention he has some pretty bad numbers to be going into 2018 with, and liberals have some pretty good numbers. Democrats have a bouquet of issues that they can go to town on Walker with. Foxconn, obviously, but also infrastructure, education(Evers would be good at that), gerrymandering, Medicaid expansion, etc.

The PPP poll I linked to has Medicaid expansion at 59% support. Walker has refused to expand it. 44% think that the state legislative districts are not fairly drawn, and 63% think they should be drawn by an independent commission. 57% are very concerned with the waiving away of environmental regulations on behalf of Foxconn. 38%(still a plurality) think that public roads have gotten worse under the Walker administration. 49%(plurality) think Walker is only making the deal with Foxconn to help him get reelected. 48% think public schools have gotten worse under Walker. 44% think Walker is too much of a Trump lackey. 44% support the ACA compared to 38% opposition. 56% at least somewhat support sanctuary cities.

These are just really lackluster numbers for Walker, and conservatives in general. Needless to say, my bets are on him losing.

[libertpaulian]

So Wisconsin posters: If you had to put money on it right now, does Walker win re-election?

No. He's plagued by FoxConn backroom deals, the attorney scandal with Evers, and the fact that nothing positive has really gotten done in the last 8 years. If Wisconsin follows suit with its history, it should flip.

This. Not to mention he has some pretty bad numbers to be going into 2018 with, and liberals have some pretty good numbers. Democrats have a bouquet of issues that they can go to town on Walker with. Foxconn, obviously, but also infrastructure, education(Evers would be good at that), gerrymandering, Medicaid expansion, etc.

The PPP poll I linked to has Medicaid expansion at 59% support. Walker has refused to expand it. 44% think that the state legislative districts are not fairly drawn, and 63% think they should be drawn by an independent commission. 57% are very concerned with the waiving away of environmental regulations on behalf of Foxconn. 38%(still a plurality) think that public roads have gotten worse under the Walker administration. 49%(plurality) think Walker is only making the deal with Foxconn to help him get reelected. 48% think public schools have gotten worse under Walker. 44% think Walker is too much of a Trump lackey. 44% support the ACA compared to 38% opposition. 56% at least somewhat support sanctuary cities.

These are just really lackluster numbers for Walker, and conservatives in general. Needless to say, my bets are on him losing.

Do these views on the issues necessarily translate to anti-Walker votes, though?

I'm fairly liberal-ish on immigration, for example, but I wouldn't necessarily vote for a Democrat based on that.

[Dr. Arch]

So Wisconsin posters: If you had to put money on it right now, does Walker win re-election?

No. He's plagued by FoxConn backroom deals, the attorney scandal with Evers, and the fact that nothing positive has really gotten done in the last 8 years. If Wisconsin follows suit with its history, it should flip.

This. Not to mention he has some pretty bad numbers to be going into 2018 with, and liberals have some pretty good numbers. Democrats have a bouquet of issues that they can go to town on Walker with. Foxconn, obviously, but also infrastructure, education(Evers would be good at that), gerrymandering, Medicaid expansion, etc.

The PPP poll I linked to has Medicaid expansion at 59% support. Walker has refused to expand it. 44% think that the state legislative districts are not fairly drawn, and 63% think they should be drawn by an independent commission. 57% are very concerned with the waiving away of environmental regulations on behalf of Foxconn. 38%(still a plurality) think that public roads have gotten worse under the Walker administration. 49%(plurality) think Walker is only making the deal with Foxconn to help him get reelected. 48% think public schools have gotten worse under Walker. 44% think Walker is too much of a Trump lackey. 44% support the ACA compared to 38% opposition. 56% at least somewhat support sanctuary cities.

These are just really lackluster numbers for Walker, and conservatives in general. Needless to say, my bets are on him losing.

Do these views on the issues necessarily translate to anti-Walker votes, though?

I'm fairly liberal-ish on immigration, for example, but I wouldn't necessarily vote for a Democrat based on that.

Perhaps not one, but there's been quite a number racking up against him over the last few years.

[mcmikk]

So Wisconsin posters: If you had to put money on it right now, does Walker win re-election?

No. He's plagued by FoxConn backroom deals, the attorney scandal with Evers, and the fact that nothing positive has really gotten done in the last 8 years. If Wisconsin follows suit with its history, it should flip.

This. Not to mention he has some pretty bad numbers to be going into 2018 with, and liberals have some pretty good numbers. Democrats have a bouquet of issues that they can go to town on Walker with. Foxconn, obviously, but also infrastructure, education(Evers would be good at that), gerrymandering, Medicaid expansion, etc.

The PPP poll I linked to has Medicaid expansion at 59% support. Walker has refused to expand it. 44% think that the state legislative districts are not fairly drawn, and 63% think they should be drawn by an independent commission. 57% are very concerned with the waiving away of environmental regulations on behalf of Foxconn. 38%(still a plurality) think that public roads have gotten worse under the Walker administration. 49%(plurality) think Walker is only making the deal with Foxconn to help him get reelected. 48% think public schools have gotten worse under Walker. 44% think Walker is too much of a Trump lackey. 44% support the ACA compared to 38% opposition. 56% at least somewhat support sanctuary cities.

These are just really lackluster numbers for Walker, and conservatives in general. Needless to say, my bets are on him losing.

Do these views on the issues necessarily translate to anti-Walker votes, though?

I'm fairly liberal-ish on immigration, for example, but I wouldn't necessarily vote for a Democrat based on that.

Not necessarily, no. But it shows that liberals generally have the advantage right now. I'm more minding the numbers on Medicaid expansion, education, infrastructure, various Foxconn shenanigans, and gerrymandering, all issues where Walker has a pretty bad track record on. Democrats(hopefully Evers) can make hay of these issues in the general election, especially in a national environment that will likely be heavily slanted against Walker. Basically, I'm not buying the hot takes saying this contest is Lean or Likely R. It's pure toss-up at this point until we can get more accurate readings on the race.

[MasterJedi]

Right now he's getting destroyed because he's spending $8 million to try and lure out of state residents in to fill jobs. He chased everyone away and then wants them back, because out of state white workers are preferable then creating public transit for inner city workers to actually get to jobs if they don't have a car.

[Gass3268]

Tony Evers- 49.4%

Scott Walker- 48.8%

what do WIers think

I think Evers can easily break 50% with that map. He'd probably pick up Door County and Racine.

I don't see a Democratic win in the state that doesn't include Grant and Lafayette counties. Winnebago is a county that would probably flip in a Democratic win.

Also Trempleau County is pretty much gone for the Democrats.

[KingSweden]

What are the rough outlines of state legislature offensive opportunities for Democrats?

[Gass3268]

What are the rough outlines of state legislature offensive opportunities for Democrats?

If the elections in Virginia were any indication, these Assembly districts need to be on the top of the list:

13, 14, 23, 24,

[mcmikk]

What are the rough outlines of state legislature offensive opportunities for Democrats?

Dems currently lead the generic legislative ballot 44-41, if that's any indication.

[Dr. Arch]

What are the rough outlines of state legislature offensive opportunities for Democrats?

Dems currently lead the generic legislative ballot 44-41, if that's any indication.

Which means nothing with the current gerrymander. In fact, Democrats had won the legislative race popular vote or lost it narrowly this whole time, and they're down dozens of seats anyways.

[Virginiá]

What are the rough outlines of state legislature offensive opportunities for Democrats?

Dems currently lead the generic legislative ballot 44-41, if that's any indication.

Which means nothing with the current gerrymander. In fact, Democrats had won the legislative race popular vote or lost it narrowly this whole time, and they're down dozens of seats anyways.

Unless SCOTUS rules against partisan gerrymandering and orders the Assembly map redrawn (the effects of which may not be felt until the 2020 election), the real action is in the state Senate, right? Is it conceivable that Democrats could build even a bare majority for themselves if 2018 and 2020 are both favorable to them?

Also, it's worth mentioning that if Democrats did have a wave-like performance in Wisconsin, it could knock out Walker and maybe a row office or two. That would ensure a more fair round of redistricting in 2021-2022.

[mcmikk]

What are the rough outlines of state legislature offensive opportunities for Democrats?

Dems currently lead the generic legislative ballot 44-41, if that's any indication.

Which means nothing with the current gerrymander. In fact, Democrats had won the legislative race popular vote or lost it narrowly this whole time, and they're down dozens of seats anyways.

Unless SCOTUS rules against partisan gerrymandering and orders the Assembly map redrawn (the effects of which may not be felt until the 2020 election), the real action is in the state Senate, right? Is it conceivable that Democrats could build even a bare majority for themselves if 2018 and 2020 are both favorable to them?

Also, it's worth mentioning that if Democrats did have a wave-like performance in Wisconsin, it could knock out Walker and maybe a row office or two. That would ensure a more fair round of redistricting in 2021-2022.

My prediction is that Walker goes down. I think whichever party wins the Senate race is also winning the Governor's mansion, and since I really can't see Baldwin losing, I can't really see Walker losing either, unless both contests end up razor-thin.

[IceSpear]

What are the rough outlines of state legislature offensive opportunities for Democrats?

Dems currently lead the generic legislative ballot 44-41, if that's any indication.

Which means nothing with the current gerrymander. In fact, Democrats had won the legislative race popular vote or lost it narrowly this whole time, and they're down dozens of seats anyways.

Unless SCOTUS rules against partisan gerrymandering and orders the Assembly map redrawn (the effects of which may not be felt until the 2020 election), the real action is in the state Senate, right? Is it conceivable that Democrats could build even a bare majority for themselves if 2018 and 2020 are both favorable to them?

Also, it's worth mentioning that if Democrats did have a wave-like performance in Wisconsin, it could knock out Walker and maybe a row office or two. That would ensure a more fair round of redistricting in 2021-2022.

My prediction is that Walker goes down. I think whichever party wins the Senate race is also winning the Governor's mansion, and since I really can't see Baldwin losing, I can't really see Walker losing either, unless both contests end up razor-thin.

People also said that about the recall though. Yet both Walker and Obama won easily, even with the granny killer on the ticket.

That said, I never really bought that line of reasoning. There was obviously going to be a contingent of voters that may not have liked Walker and/or were not solid supporters, but thought the recall went too far. No doubt that Baldwin/Walker voters would be totally schizophrenic, but it wouldn't be the first nor the last time voters showed that type of schizophrenia. Lol

Personally, I think he's in for the toughest fight of his political career, but is slightly favored. If there does end up being a wave though, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ended up getting pulled under.

[mcmikk]

What are the rough outlines of state legislature offensive opportunities for Democrats?

Dems currently lead the generic legislative ballot 44-41, if that's any indication.

Which means nothing with the current gerrymander. In fact, Democrats had won the legislative race popular vote or lost it narrowly this whole time, and they're down dozens of seats anyways.

Unless SCOTUS rules against partisan gerrymandering and orders the Assembly map redrawn (the effects of which may not be felt until the 2020 election), the real action is in the state Senate, right? Is it conceivable that Democrats could build even a bare majority for themselves if 2018 and 2020 are both favorable to them?

Also, it's worth mentioning that if Democrats did have a wave-like performance in Wisconsin, it could knock out Walker and maybe a row office or two. That would ensure a more fair round of redistricting in 2021-2022.

My prediction is that Walker goes down. I think whichever party wins the Senate race is also winning the Governor's mansion, and since I really can't see Baldwin losing, I can't really see Walker losing either, unless both contests end up razor-thin.

People also said that about the recall though. Yet both Walker and Obama won easily, even with the granny killer on the ticket.

That said, I never really bought that line of reasoning. There was obviously going to be a contingent of voters that may not have liked Walker and/or were not solid supporters, but thought the recall went too far. No doubt that Baldwin/Walker voters would be totally schizophrenic, but it wouldn't be the first nor the last time voters showed that type of schizophrenia. Lol

Personally, I think he's in for the toughest fight of his political career, but is slightly favored. If there does end up being a wave though, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ended up getting pulled under.

One problem with that: The recall was not on the same day as the general election in 2012. The recall took place in June.

Regardless, I think the race is pure toss-up at this point. Walker as well as the various Democrats running have their own advantages and disadvantages, and there are just too many variables for me to make a good judgement at this point.

If the political landscape stays as it is, and Evers emerges as the nominee, or it looks like Tammy Baldwin is headed towards routing her opponent, I would probably say then that Walker is the underdog. For now, it's even.

[Nhoj]

Evers is still the favorite, but I think Mitchell has a real chance in a very large field, if only because he will clean up in Milwaukee with Moore's machine behind him. He's also got the firefighters union. I'd put him at #2 right now, just past Vinehout.

Mitchell could probably get the possibly get the pull of all the unions in Wisconsin.

You think the teachers unions would back him over Evers? I find that highly unlikely.

[mcmikk]

Evers is still the favorite, but I think Mitchell has a real chance in a very large field, if only because he will clean up in Milwaukee with Moore's machine behind him. He's also got the firefighters union. I'd put him at #2 right now, just past Vinehout.

Mitchell could probably get the possibly get the pull of all the unions in Wisconsin.

You think the teachers unions would back him over Evers? I find that highly unlikely.

I agree. Also, nice sig Nhoj

[MasterJedi]

https://projects.jsonline.com/news/2017/12/4/wisconsin-childhood-trauma-data-explodes-myth-of-not-in-my-small-town.html

Good article on rural poverty/heroin epidemic. Basically exploding away the myth that it doesn't happen in the perfect, small, god fearing, conservative small towns.

[Gass3268]

Evers is still the favorite, but I think Mitchell has a real chance in a very large field, if only because he will clean up in Milwaukee with Moore's machine behind him. He's also got the firefighters union. I'd put him at #2 right now, just past Vinehout.

Mitchell could probably get the possibly get the pull of all the unions in Wisconsin.

You think the teachers unions would back him over Evers? I find that highly unlikely.

I agree. Also, nice sig Nhoj

Yeah, it would make sense for the teachers to back Evers. I was thinking more the trades unions and probably SEIU.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Good candidates.

[redjohn]

So Wisconsin posters: If you had to put money on it right now, does Walker win re-election?

It's a tossup, but it depends on the candidate. Evers will lose to Walker.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So Wisconsin posters: If you had to put money on it right now, does Walker win re-election?

It's a tossup, but it depends on the candidate. Evers will lose to Walker.

You don't think Walker's bubblers with that Foxconn fiasco and just general fatigue is enough to do him in

[mcmikk]

So Wisconsin posters: If you had to put money on it right now, does Walker win re-election?

Tossup, but I'm gonna predict that Evers pulls it out. He's the best that Wisconsin Dems have. Republicans/conservatives have lackluster numbers here and Democrats/liberals have good numbers.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Here is a report of the Wisconsin Department of Justice into the leak ofthe information in the Joh Doe investigation of Walker.  It should help all Wisconsin Republicans. Though a crime was committed, it recommends bar action and contempt proceedingascist  against the Democrat scumbags that ran this fascist investigation.  Don’t you Dememocrats activities by Republican ever talk about fascist investigations. We have never gone this far.

http://thefederalist.com/2017/12/07/bombshell-report-political-persecution-scott-walker-swept-high-level-gop-officials/

https://cdn.wrn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Report-of-the-Attorney-General-Signed-UNSEALED.pdf

Nothing but secret Star Chamber.