2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Lisa's voting Biden]

CA-50 primary poll shows Campa-Najjar with 31%, Issa with 21%, and DeMaio with 15%

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1232567753405583361?s=20

[Calthrina950]

CA-50 primary poll shows Campa-Najjar with 31%, Issa with 21%, and DeMaio with 15%

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1232567753405583361?s=20

This poll tells us two things: that Campa-Najjar will be the Democratic nominee again, and that Issa is almost certain to be the Republican nominee at this point. Now that Hunter is out of office and off to prison, this seat is no longer in jeopardy, and is therefore Safe R.

[Storr]

CA-50 primary poll shows Campa-Najjar with 31%, Issa with 21%, and DeMaio with 15%

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1232567753405583361?s=20

This poll tells us two things: that Campa-Najjar will be the Democratic nominee again, and that Issa is almost certain to be the Republican nominee at this point. Now that Hunter is out of office and off to prison, this seat is no longer in jeopardy, and is therefore Safe R.

I really, really don't want Issa back in Congress. I understand someone like Pete Sessions running again (though moving to a different solidly conservative district is still slimy imo) because he lost reelection. But why did Issa "retire" just to run (and likely will win) two years after retiring? That doesn't strike me as a time frame where he reasonably could claim that he focused on his family, took time away from the pressure cooker of DC, or something similar and is now ready to return to public life. I get that Hunter being convicted and resigning is a special circumstance which gives Issa an opportunity in a solidly conservative district. But, running again so soon says to me he only "retired" because he could see his district was rapidly shifting towards the Democrats (winning by <1% in 2016 with it going 50.7% Clinton to 43.2% Trump) and he didn't want to have the "stain" of losing his seat.

[Calthrina950]

CA-50 primary poll shows Campa-Najjar with 31%, Issa with 21%, and DeMaio with 15%

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1232567753405583361?s=20

This poll tells us two things: that Campa-Najjar will be the Democratic nominee again, and that Issa is almost certain to be the Republican nominee at this point. Now that Hunter is out of office and off to prison, this seat is no longer in jeopardy, and is therefore Safe R.

I really, really don't want Issa back in Congress. I understand someone like Pete Sessions running again (though moving to a different solidly conservative district is still slimy imo) because he lost reelection. But why did Issa "retire" just to run (and likely will win) two years after retiring? That doesn't strike me as a time frame where he reasonably could claim that he focused on his family, took time away from the pressure cooker of DC, or something similar and is now ready to return to public life. I get that Hunter being convicted and resigning is a special circumstance which gives Issa an opportunity in a solidly conservative district. But, running again so soon says to me he only "retired" because he could see his district was rapidly shifting towards the Democrats (winning by <1% in 2016 with it going 50.7% Clinton to 43.2% Trump) and he didn't want to have the "stain" of losing his seat.

This is exactly why he retired, and this is what I've said before. I share your dislike of Issa, and I don't look forward to his return either. But Issa was one of the wealthiest members of Congress during his tenure, in fact, I believe that he was the wealthiest member, being worth more than $200 million dollars. That gives him a financial advantage over DeMaio and the rest. Recently, Issa was apparently trying to attack DeMaio over his sexuality, which is something that still plays to much of the Republican base (even though Trump himself doesn't care about the issue, a reflection of his days as a Democrat and of his city of origin).

[MT Treasurer]

MT-AL (UM/Big Sky Poll):

Kathleen Williams (D) 36%
Matt Rosendale (R) 36%
Corey Stapleton (R) 19%
Joe Dooling (R) 3%
Tom Winter (D) 3%
Timothy Johnson (R) 2%
John Evankovich (R) 2%

https://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Methodology/Spring2020_Aggregate%20Report.pdf

[Lisa's voting Biden]

MT-AL (UM/Big Sky Poll):

Kathleen Williams (D) 36%
Matt Rosendale (R) 36%
Corey Stapleton (R) 19%
Joe Dooling (R) 3%
Tom Winter (D) 3%
Timothy Johnson (R) 2%
John Evankovich (R) 2%

https://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Methodology/Spring2020_Aggregate%20Report.pdf

JUNK IT

[Frenchrepublican]

MT-AL (UM/Big Sky Poll):

Kathleen Williams (D) 36%
Matt Rosendale (R) 36%
Corey Stapleton (R) 19%
Joe Dooling (R) 3%
Tom Winter (D) 3%
Timothy Johnson (R) 2%
John Evankovich (R) 2%

https://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Methodology/Spring2020_Aggregate%20Report.pdf

Lol

Has MT adopted the jungle primary system ?

[Frenchrepublican]

^No, this is pretty much a meme pollster.

It was sarcasm

[Gracile]

It's pretty sad how dead this thread/board has become in the wake of the Democratic Primary. Congressional elections are some of the most important and interesting to observe from an electoral analysis perspective.

----

Anyway, the DCCC is running ads in a few Republican-held districts hitting Trump/GOP House Reps on the Coronavirus:

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1234483390813999110

Not really sure what they're trying to go for here - seems like an ineffective attack line.

[wbrocks67]

The GCB is D+11 in a new YouGov/Yahoo poll. But I thought the GCB was flopping for the Dems?

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/azhgftk88w/20200227_yahoo_primary_toplines.pdf

[We Live in Black and White]

The GCB is D+11 in a new YouGov/Yahoo poll. But I thought the GCB was flopping for the Dems?

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/azhgftk88w/20200227_yahoo_primary_toplines.pdf

👀👀👀

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The GCB is D+11 in a new YouGov/Yahoo poll. But I thought the GCB was flopping for the Dems?

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/azhgftk88w/20200227_yahoo_primary_toplines.pdf

Sounds about right. Even if Trump wins reelection with a majority of congressional districts, I fully expect the Democrats to easily retain control of the House. Even in the case of a Sanders nominee, I can see suburban voters sticking with their Democratic reps even if they end up biting the bullet and going with Trump.

[wbrocks67]

The GCB has ballooned to Dem +13

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3rdraw493c/econTabReport.pdf

[Tekken_Guy]

The GCB has ballooned to Dem +13

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3rdraw493c/econTabReport.pdf

Is it because of the virus?

[Orser67]

The GCB has ballooned to Dem +13

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3rdraw493c/econTabReport.pdf

People are really underrating the possibility that 2020 will turn into a pretty decent-sized victory for Dems. I'm not saying that swing state polls aren't important, but it's a pretty bad sign for the GOP that RCP has the generic ballot at D+8.3 and has Biden up 5 over Trump in national polling.

[Gracile]

The House majority was never in jeopardy.

[ajc0918]

The GCB has ballooned to Dem +13

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3rdraw493c/econTabReport.pdf

People are really underrating the possibility that 2020 will turn into a pretty decent-sized victory for Dems. I'm not saying that swing state polls aren't important, but it's a pretty bad sign for the GOP that RCP has the generic ballot at D+8.3 and has Biden up 5 over Trump in national polling.

A democratic trifecta is within reach. I'm feeling incredibly optimistic for the first time in a while.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The GCB has ballooned to Dem +13

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3rdraw493c/econTabReport.pdf

People are really underrating the possibility that 2020 will turn into a pretty decent-sized victory for Dems. I'm not saying that swing state polls aren't important, but it's a pretty bad sign for the GOP that RCP has the generic ballot at D+8.3 and has Biden up 5 over Trump in national polling.

2020 is going to be a double landslide for Democrats just like 06 and 08 were. I am predicting Democrats pick up around 10-15 net.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The GCB has ballooned to Dem +13

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3rdraw493c/econTabReport.pdf

People are really underrating the possibility that 2020 will turn into a pretty decent-sized victory for Dems. I'm not saying that swing state polls aren't important, but it's a pretty bad sign for the GOP that RCP has the generic ballot at D+8.3 and has Biden up 5 over Trump in national polling.

2020 is going to be a double landslide for Democrats just like 06 and 08 were. I am predicting Democrats pick up around 10-15 net.

Probably requires a Texas wipeout

[ajc0918]

The GOP nominated two far right candidates for the run off for TX-22. Dems nominated Sri Kulkarni who ran in 2018 and got 46.4% of the vote.

Are dems now likely to pick up this seat? It was probably a toss up before the primary.

[lfromnj]

The GOP nominated two far right candidates for the run off for TX-22. Dems nominated Sri Kulkarni who ran in 2018 and got 46.4% of the vote.

Are dems now likely to pick up this seat? It was probably a toss up before the primary.

I mean I dont get why people would expect Pierce bush to go when he literally went to a #resistance rally lol.

[Gracile]

I still remember a few months ago when some people here hyped up Pierce Bush's entrance into TX-22 as a major threat, even making it Likely R. Yeah...

[Gracile]

MN-07: Collin Peterson will run for reelection after some speculation that he was going to retire-

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1235964936397955074

[Frenchrepublican]

Utah 4th numbers

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Utah 4th numbers

"Impeachment will destroy the Dems"