Trump likely will not rise very much from that number between now and November. That is close to his ceiling.
McCain in 2008 (the GOP's lowest year in our generation) still managed 44%, yet you feel Trump won't get 42% in 2016, a year in which the economy is poor, terrorism is threatening, and the Democrats hold the White House?
In Iowa? Their unemployment rate is low compared to the nation at 3.9%.
And the incumbent party has positive favorable ratings.
Unemployment rate isn't the only metric. Plus, in 2008 their unemployment rate was 5.0 when the national average was nearly 7.0; yet Iowa still swung heavily towards Obama. Sometimes people will vote according to the welfare of the nation, not the welfare of their state.
Actually, relative to the nation as a whole, it didn't swing that much at all. It was 1.7% more Democratic in 2004, and 2.3% more Democratic in 2008.
Anyway, it's nice to finally see an Iowa poll. It's not a great fit for either candidate, so I expect a competitive race.
