Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Zaybay]

Harley riding Scott Walker in a bit of a pickle regarding Trump's tweets this morning:

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1011635447653634048

Walker doesn’t rely on Obama-Trump types to win anyhow. Not the best news for him, but not the worst.

Most of Scott Walker's support comes from the Milwaukee suburbs, yes, but he was able to narrowly win via low turnout from Dane and Milwaukee and the anti-Obama feelings among WWC in the southwest specifically.

[Zaybay]

Not the news that Walker wants as Trump is in town for the ground breaking:

Foxconn scales back plans for its first factory in Mount Pleasant

Foxconn is just a disaster

[Zaybay]

I actually think Mitchell would do just as good as Evers for one reason. AA turnout. WI did not flip for Trump just because of the Driftless and WWC, though it did help, in fact, Trump got less votes there than Mitt did 4 years ago. Rather, it was due to a monumental decrease in D numbers.
2012(nearest thousand)
D-1,621,000
R-1,408,000
2016
D-1,383,000(-238,000)
R-1,405,000(-3,000)
One of the reasons for this was AA turnout in the cities of Milwaukee and Madison. This chart shows this phenomenon.



Mitchell would be able to get these voters out and tip the scale in the Ds favor. Its also important to note his platform appeals to union workers and WWC, and so he could be seen as a hero for them, especially if he highlights his roots. Though I dont think he wins the primary(it appears Evers has that), he would still be a top tier candidate.

[Zaybay]

I swear, if Kelda Roys gets the nomination, Im moving WI to safe R.

Also, those fundraising numbers are scattered between, like, 10 candidates. After the primary, funding should be directed at the nominee(hopefully Evers or Mitchell)

[Zaybay]

I swear, if Kelda Roys gets the nomination, Im moving WI to safe R.

Also, those fundraising numbers are scattered between, like, 10 candidates. After the primary, funding should be directed at the nominee(hopefully Evers or Mitchell)

Why would you do that during the Year of the Woman?

She feels, to me at least, like Erin Murphy in Minnesota, a progressive woman who just doesnt really appeal to the state.

Mitchell is a union man, AA, rather socialist and charismatic. Evers is known throughout the state, and an educator, in a time when most Rs are gutting education. Roys, just seems to be the woman candidate, im sorry to say. She is endorsed by only pro-woman groups, and doesnt seem to have appeal that can be used across the state. She cant really appeal to the WOW suburbs, which are hard R, and she cant appeal to the swingy rural areas, which the others can.

I agree that this is the year of the woman, and we have had great woman candidates, such as Amy McGrath, OC, Kyristan Sinema, etc. But the thing is, all use the fact they are a woman second, and use their combat experience, vision, and record first, respectively. I just dont see Roys winning this race. Of course, I can be totally wrong, but its just my speculation.

[Zaybay]

Guys, I dont think charisma will matter that much in the race. Walker has the charisma of a brick, a very good looking brick though, so literally anything will do.

What matters more is how well Evers can connect with voters, and how energized he can make them. His position as Superintendent helps him focus on education issues, and he has been at many rallies and events.

This is coming from someone supporting Mitchell.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1022471072942313472

Interesting to see the divide. Which one is more progressive overall? Are there major differences between the candidates' platforms?

I think mcmikk put it best, but there are some other important differences.

Mitchell is much more socialist in nature, and has focused his campaign on fighting for Unions and workers. Mitchell's appeal is centered around the rural regions, and can win back the WWC, and Driftless region.
Roys is your #resistance white liberal who argues more for the social side of politics, and going against Trump. She can increase turnout in the major cities, and possibly make some cracks in WOW, though, IMO, she is the weaker candidate out of the big three.
Both are unlikely to win, as Evers has a solid route to victory, but its possible something can occur and one of the other candidates can take the prize.(I hope Mitchell wins)

[Zaybay]

...yeah, no. Walker is in good hands. He’s only 42/50 after so much threatening him.Unlike Trump, he is loved in WOW and can hold on to GOP gains in the rurals since the ‘08s. Must be some tabulation error somewhere that don’t exist in the Michigan/Minnesota polls.

This is pretty pathetic Hofoid, even for you. You even bother to mention that his approval is -8.

[Zaybay]

Guys, I dont think charisma will matter that much in the race. Walker has the charisma of a brick, a very good looking brick though, so literally anything will do.

What matters more is how well Evers can connect with voters, and how energized he can make them. His position as Superintendent helps him focus on education issues, and he has been at many rallies and events.

This is coming from someone supporting Mitchell.

Really? I know beauty is subjective but he looks like a look down fish to me:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lookdown

Hes not attractive, but he is rather good looking.


Of course, this is at his most photgenic, he also looks like this

[Zaybay]

After looking at more photos of him, I have come to the conclusion that he is rather unnerving, and so I retract my previous comment.

He is now just a brick

[Zaybay]

So, assuming Evers gets the nom, what does turnout look like in a hypothetical campaign where he pays minimal attention to Milwaukee/Madison? I'd guess Democrats are energized enough to turn out there anyway but is there any risk to not focusing campaign efforts there?

Dane is fine, they always turnout. But Milwaukee is a problem. They have constantly had low turnout compared to the rest of the state, which is a big reason why the state was lost in 2016. A good campaign would focus on Milwaukee and the rurals of the state, ignoring Dane and WOW.

[Zaybay]

Mitchell hitting Milwaukee-area airwaves hard. Not sure whether the final push will be enough to push him past the others, but this race is going to be close. My guess is that Evers wins by a small margin, with Mitchell the runner-up. It all depends on whether Milwaukee flexes some of its muscle, which seems doubtful if one looks at the 2016 general results as well as this spring's election turnout (relative to the rest of the state).

My opinion of the MKE area, outside of politics (although, as we can see, the city's residents have gone out of their way to show that they don't really care all that much), is overall very poor. So far, it's been the most disappointing city I've visited.

Milwaukee's problem is that 1) it tries to play second-fiddle to Chicago instead of trying to develop its own niche and identity, and 2) it's followed the same patterns and traits of every post-industrial Midwestern city.

Milwaukee's problem is the old German roots, it's cheap and people have the "this is Milwaukee we can't do that/have nice things" no matter how much the city is booming and people are trying to help. It's one of the densest cities outside of the big cities in the country, it would be perfect for rail but the WOW counties are actively trying to destroy the city while getting the benefits of it for free. For example a regional transit authority is illegal per state law.

weird question, but could a D trifecta allowing a public transit network, followed by Milwaukee making one w/ Kenosha and Racine cause WOW to trend R and the southern+Milwaukee county suburbs to trend D, at least at the local and state levels?

With the gerrymander it'll be almost impossible for them to have a D trifecta. Then the problem is that a lot in Madison and outstate if not outright hate are ambivalent to Milwaukee. The biggest goof up was Doyle vetoing a RTS because it wasn't perfect. Milwaukee has a streetcar now, that's what we're going to have to be satisfied with expanding for a long time.

Its possible to get the governorship and the senate, but not the house. But with 2 chambers, it should be easy to make a D-leaning map for the senate, house, and national house, unless the state operates like NY, where each chamber makes its own map.

[Zaybay]

First post primary poll has Evers with a 5 point lead over Walker, 49 - 44.

https://www.wpr.org/new-poll-shows-democrat-tony-evers-five-points-ahead-walker-general-election

Normally I dont like to take one poll and say a race is over, but PPP is a great pollster, and we have had Marist do this race and get similar results, not to mention the specials and judicial race. Lean D IMO.

[Zaybay]

I already got the poll, and it says Walker is ahead of "Bony" Evers by 30 points. The write up suggests that this should have been expected "considering Walker has won 3 elections in the past 4 years".

[Zaybay]

OK, serious autopsy time: How can Dems recover their lost appeal in the Midwest, specifically Wisconsin? Because, the current Nancy Pelosi/DWS/Country Club strategy ain't working...and the results are devastating with Wisconsin workers being subjected to No-Right-to-Bargain.

2016 was a Realignment Election and Democrats still have failed to come to terms with that. Basically from 2016 onwards the upper Midwest will be available for R's the same way VA, NC, GA will be available for D's.

Trump won Ohio by 8, Iowa by an even wider margin. That's a Realignment for me. WI is just at the beginning of it the same way VA was in 2006 when Webb narrowly defeated Allen.

Bottom Line: Cities like Milwaukee and Detroit are shrinking and I guarantee you that D's won't get a 300-350K Plurality out of Detroit anytime soon. That was their backbone winning these States but the Midwest & Cities there are shrinking.
A 0.5 point win is not a "realignment"

Obama won IN by 1 so he must be a realigner too.

[Zaybay]

The flooding will make no difference.  No one is going to go to the voting booth and go "I would have voted for Evers, but Walker handled that flood really well". If it was a tornado that devastated the state, or a hurricane, then yes, but this is realllllly stretching the boundaries of what influences voters.

[Zaybay]

Funny how Marquette is the Gold Standard™ until it shows numbers inconvenient to the red avatars here. Evers below 50 in Suffolk, though.

Wait till you find out that Walker is below Evers!

Oh, I know...I saw the thread. I wonder if the Foxconn news will be enough to change the game in the state. All I know is, watch how undecideds will break in this state as the election looms.

yeah, your right, the undecideds will decide this race, but not for your candidate.

[Zaybay]

I gotta say, Evers is doing really well in the polls this election season, A LOT better than Mary Burke did when she was running against Walker. Walker has literally only led in ONE poll so far. I just hope Evers continues to slaughter him as polling becomes more important, like in October. He's going to win this race if he polls like this in October. Heck, if he continues to beat Walker in the polls in a month from now, this race should be consiered lean D.

Come on, Evers. You've got this!

And why does Cook Political still have this race as lean R yet has Baldwin's race as likely D when Walker's much more vulnerable than Baldwin?

Im glad that youve got the enthusiasm about the race back! This race is definitely gonna be a top D pickup, and Walker is definitely on the ropes.

And about the Cook Political thing, they still rate the OK governorship solid R, and moved OR to lean D after a Gravis poll. This is why no one on Atlas really trusts the pundits.

[Zaybay]

Evers raises over 1$ million in just 8 days

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/tony-evers-raises-million-over-days-in-race-against-scott/article_ea7ac2bb-5b51-5751-8ee5-ce6a008b384b.html


Yeah, starting to think that Evers may be just a bit favoured. Just a bit.

[Zaybay]

Baldwin +5

Evers+ 2

Such a result should be expected from their odd voter screen

[Zaybay]

Im guessing they fixed their screen

[Zaybay]

Im guessing they fixed their screen

He said at the beginning that the screen is simply those who say they are certain to vote.  I don't know if this is a change from previous months.

Previous poll was a screen of 2014/2016 voters, which is why it yielded such an odd result. You can go back to the thread, I believe it was talked about a lot.

[Zaybay]

Im guessing they fixed their screen

He said at the beginning that the screen is simply those who say they are certain to vote.  I don't know if this is a change from previous months.

Previous poll was a screen of 2014/2016 voters, which is why it yielded such an odd result. You can go back to the thread, I believe it was talked about a lot.

I said that and I was wrong, but it’s still a super tight screen. You have to be 100% certain you are going vote in November. Even being 95% sure won’t cut it.

Ah,thats it. All right, thanks! I wonder if it was changed, or Democrats are now saying 100%?

[Zaybay]

Game over. Walker’s got this one in the bag. The Electric Company vote is gonna come through bigly for Walker.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qbF6GcES3-4&feature=youtu.be

Best ad of the decade.

Thats where this is from! It was so familiar.

[Zaybay]

I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

Still indicates a massive tightening (WOW voters coming home to their natural place).

You must really have a low standard for a massive tightening if a two point shift is massive to you. Also, Obama got BTFO in Waukesha both elections and won them comfortably. Please delete your account, thanks.

You must be forgetting one (not-so) tiny little detail...Dems have collapsed in the Driftless since then.

Oh, If only there was a way to see whether of not this is still true. If only there was a primary, or some judicial election, or even just a poll broken up by region, if only we had that!