Arab turnout went down and some Arab factions previously open to voting for Jewish parties voted Likud, but more Arabs broke from the Joint list in favor of the Secularists, Labor and Meretz especially.
I don't see any evidence from the results that new Likud voters come from other Jewish parties rather than from the Joint list or from new voters. checking the results by locality for places where Likud had a decent increase:
Abu Gosh:
2020:
Joint List: 80.4
Likud: 10.4
other: 9.1
2021:
Arab Parties: 65.8
Likud: 24.4
other: 9.71
Naaura:
2020:
Joint list: 92.1
Likud: 0.3
other: 7.6
2021:
Arab parties: 72
Likud: 11.67
other: 16.33
Fureidis:
2020:
Joint list: 96.4
Likud: 0.4
other: 3.2
2021:
Arab parties: 76.5
Likud: 6.8
other: 16.7
In most places it’s to prove the case but if Likud is increasing more than all non Arab parties combined it can’t all be coming from them, and I really don’t see why this would be the case in particular.
This can also be seen in the opposite case, where a strong showing from the non Joint List or Likud in 2020 was no guarantee of Likud success in 2021.
Kafar Qasem:
2020:
Joint list: 91.7
Likud: 0.4
other: 7.9
2021:
Arab parties: 77.53
Likud: 0.95
other: 21.52
