VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

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http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/452720/why-virginia-democrats-are-right-be-nervous

Not the most reliable source, but it will certainly be a tight race.

We'll see, but Northam is right to be cautious given recent VA polling errors.  The jury is still out on whether they are missing Republican turnout or missing presidential opposition party turnout, though.

Kaine beat his polls in 2005:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html

It appears Warner beat his October polls in 2001 as well:

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/26/us/lead-narrows-in-virginia-governor-s-race.html

Webb barely underperformed his polls within the MOE in 2006 (+0.4 vs. +1.5 in polling):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html

Then Obama comes in and McDonnell beats his polls substantially vs. Deeds:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/va/virginia_governor_mcdonnell_vs_deeds-1055.html
Still unclear if it's a Republican thing or an opposition party thing.  I guess we will find out.

But in the most recent Senate race, Warner got warned.

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Big unforced error for Northam with this ad: https://twitter.com/latinovictoryus/status/924972736996364289

Not directly from the Northam campaign, but its getting a ton of traction online. Its sad that Northam is sinking to the same level as Gillespie with this fear-mongering.

Campaigns cannot coordinate with Super PACs.

Hillary did.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/05/12/how-a-super-pac-plans-to-coordinate-directly-with-hillary-clintons-campaign/?utm_term=.578a1278aace

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At this point, it's pretty clear we're in one of the below scenarios:

1. Northam is begging and pleading to Fairfax County throughout the count to boost him over the top, and wins by %.
2. Gillespie wins.

Both are bad for the democratic party. In a Clinton +5 state, and with Trump in mid 30s approvals, they should be winning by double digits. The party needs to do some serious soul-searching no matter who wins.

The party needed to do some serious soul searching long before they nominated this Bush supporter.