UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Pericles]

It's probably a mistake to trust the polls much given their track record in previous UK elections.

[Pericles]

I don't see why May would resign if she loses the vote, she clearly wants to be in Number 10 and I doubt she'd want her legacy to be the Prime Minister who lost her majority and stuffed up the Brexit negotiations and then was the second one to run away and leave a mess for their successor. I think how she operates she'd rather fix the mess herself, especially since an alternative deal-even if it's only cosmetically different-is probably possible, and I think in almost all scenarios she'd have to get forced out of office rather than resigning. And of course the Tories don't have anyone who'd be better at the job than her. I could see the party forcing her out but I find it hard to see her resigning just because she loses the vote on December 11.

[Pericles]

How much will her deal fail by? The Guardian seems to be estimating it goes down 198-441(https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2018/nov/15/can-you-get-mays-brexit-deal-through-parliament). 317-104=213, then take off the DUP, though maybe add on 10 Labour MPs(being generous). And have a slightly reduced turnout to a full parliament, so something like 425-210. Still it seems impossible for May to win on the first vote, and it seems implausible for it to be close enough for her to win on the second.

[Pericles]

Wow, this is an incredible moment. After so much speculations NSA backbiting ever since the general election, now May's leadership gets to be tested.

How many MPs do you think vote against May?

[Pericles]

So far 110 Tory MPs have tweeted their support of May. That's a lot but not a majority(and of course it's a secret ballot so some could be lying).

[Pericles]

So far 110 Tory MPs have tweeted their support of May. That's a lot but not a majority(and of course it's a secret ballot so some could be lying).

That's the key,
Iain Duncan Smith had a big apparent support among Tory MPs before his vote of no confidence, Tory MPs were banging the desks after his last speech but then they voted him out....

The parliamentary party never liked IDS though, the membership forced him on them. Theresa May was their clear choice. Remainers will probably back her and I doubt there are enough hardline Brexiters to actually topple her.

[Pericles]

https://mobile.twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1072797975963947008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1072797975963947008&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-46533245

[Pericles]

Seems like a mixed result, May clearly won and gets another year as PM but her authority is undercut. A win is a win, but this win is worse than it should have been.

[Pericles]

Ugh. This is going to mean an extension of A50 and possibly a second referendum or a GE. May is betraying Brexit. It needs to be a no-deal now.

May's deal would have meant Brexit on March 29. If Brexit ends up softened or cancelled, the ERG's intransigence could end up as one of the biggest own goals in history.