CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ???

[Oryxslayer]

It'll be Villaraigosa.

How do you know? All the polls have a high number of undecided likely voters.

Because Villaraigosa has a comparativly high floor due to his support out of LA County. No other dem has a base that size (besides Newsom), and the CA Repulican vote is both unmotived and has more candidates runinng then the dem field.

The only other real option in to make the runoff is Chiang. California is a expensive state, and only Newsom/Chiang/Villaraigosa are actually pulling in the necessary cash. The problem for Chiang though is that his natural base is the Bay Area - which is Newsom's stronghold. So Chiang doesn't have a base when the other two already control the big dem vote hubs.

[Oryxslayer]

It will probably be another D vs. D race, as will the Senate race.  Hope it increases demand for California to get rid of their unfair, undemocratic, and unconstitutional primary system.

I have never met anyone that likes the top two structure, regardless of party. Republicans don't like it for statewide races and Democrats don't like it for legislative races. Why does it still exist?

Someone noted in another thread that Californians (including me) support the primary 60 system 60-26.

http://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-december-2017/

[Oryxslayer]

I really don't understand why there is 'hype' right now around Allen. I mean look at his fundraising:



Now, in a state as big and as diverse as California, it is understandably expensive to run a campaign. This is not even including the fact that the twin Media Markets of SF and LA make it the most expensive non-swing state to run a campaign. Money in California therefore traditionally has acted as a hard ceiling - if you can't run fund campaign, people won't know who you are, and you won't get over 5%.

This is why despite the concern trolls, we are still on track for D v D.

[Oryxslayer]

Ro Khanna endorses Newsom.

Gamechanger.

Not sure if sarcastic or not. What would be an actual gamechanger is if a Bay Area congressman doesn't endorse the candidate which will be winning 60%+ in each of the Bay Area Counties in June.

[Oryxslayer]

51 candidates are now in the race.

Pff thats nothing. The recall had 135 candidate on the ballot

[Oryxslayer]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-gop-candidate-for-california-governor-1518478473-htmlstory.html

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Damaging?

The only thing that would save Cox is his lack of relevance, so the other candidates might not waste airtime attacking him.

[Oryxslayer]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-gop-candidate-for-california-governor-1518478473-htmlstory.html

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Damaging?

Highly Unlikely that people will care. This was 11 years ago, he's changed his mind since then. Also it was before California voted for Proposition 8, when a lot of people were still anti gay.

Agreed this will likely not hurt Cox with his base of Rural social conservatives hes campaigning on being pro life so this will help him if anything I think he still caps out at 8-10%
My Prediction for round one is
Gavin Newsom 30%
Antonio Villaraigosa 23%
Travis Allen 17%
John Chiang 15%
John Cox 9%
Delaine Eastin 6%
Doug Ose 5%

A. Equals 105%

B. No other? Others will at least take 10%.

[Oryxslayer]

I don't see a path for Chiang to make the runoff. I'm pretty sure at this point that it will be Cox vs Newsom.

Yeah. I'm still voting Chiang, but unless he gets some serious momentum, I don't think he can pull off second.

Same. I still think there is a narrow path for villa, though it requires polls so far to be inaccurately sampling Hispanics do to both the language issue and the huge size of the state. Not impossible, but hard.

[Oryxslayer]

Theres three big sources of uncertainty, which are making most if not all polls bad - besides the obvious question of turnout:

1. As stated, there are a lot more Republicans on the ballot then are in polls, which offer Rep voters more choices. So there could easily be some dropoff there. This is less likely to affect dems since polls offer a heap of choices for respondents to decide between, and any dropoff would probably come from those already considering secondary dem options. Helps Allen if anyone.
2. Asian Turnout - often over-represented in CA primaries to their GE numbers. CA Asians are the single biggest block that has changed their party ID since 2016, so we will see if those OC vote flippers hold. Probably helps Chiang in the south and Newsom in the north.
3. Hispanic Turnout - often lower in primaries then in the GE, and especially in off years when compared to presidential ones. Evidence from other primaries however suggests that Hispanics are more mobilized to cast primary ballots this cycle, and CA has made it easier to vote so as to increase participation of these soft-voters. They are also harder to poll. The Hispanic composition of the electorate probably decides Villa's numbers.

[Oryxslayer]

Too late for any impact for the top two. If Newsom ends up facing another Dem, (really only Villa) then maybe - there are enough voters that can move between the candidates that any potential Newsom scandal could change the outcome. If it ends up DvD, then the race could be close. If the end result is Newsom v Cox, then no scandal will affect him at all. There are enough dem partisans that barring a Moore/Greintens scandal, Newsom will walk away easy.