The absentee/early vote thread

[IceSpear]

So does it seem the early voting tea leaves are lining up with the polling, more or less? I know Dems are lagging in IA/OH and improving in NC/AZ.

[IceSpear]

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Republican 503,632   
Democrat 483,019   
Other 31,507   
NPA 188,191

What's the official party line as for why this is happening?

Are you dense or something? It's all relative. That's like saying IA is solid D because they're ahead in raw early vote, even though they're underperforming 2012.

[IceSpear]

Wisconsin absentee ballot stats, 10/24

Dane and Milwaukee Counties have returned 73,233 of the 249,172 absentee ballots in Wisconsin, for 29.4% of the statewide total. These two counties contributed to 26% of the 2012 statewide total. These are the two big Dem counties.

Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties have returned 30,953 ballots, 12.4% of the 249,172 absentee ballots in Wisconsin. These three counties contributed to 12.3% of the 2012 statewide total. These are the three big GOP counties.

Dem big counties up 3.3%, GOP essentially flat

I'm surprised the WOW counties are flat, considering they're not exactly in love with Trump and 2012 had a favorite son on the ticket.

[IceSpear]

Isn't comparing raw vote problematic due to 4 years of population growth? Particularly for a state like Nevada.

[IceSpear]

I feel the need to point out to those of you that appear to have 0 institutional knowledge: fewer REGISTERED Democrats =! fewer Democratic voters in North Carolina.

Yes, thankfully the Dixiecrats are quickly transferring to their real home, the party they've been consistently supporting for decades.

[IceSpear]

Why is Pennsylvania's turnout so much lower than other swing states?

We don't have early voting. We have absentee voting that requires an excuse.

[IceSpear]

Obama also never trailed Romney in the polls in Iowa. So she needs to do more than match Obama's early vote performance.

I don't get your logic here. If she was matching Obama's early vote performance, she likely WOULDN'T be trailing in polls there...

[IceSpear]

Yeah, NE-02 is a vastly underrated D pickup opportunity. It tends to just slip under most people's radar, but it might be more likely to flip than NC at this point.

[IceSpear]

It's getting really hard to see a path for Trump in CO/NV.  He's going to need to break through in PA or WI, as expected.

[IceSpear]

A lot of people dismissed the massive drop in black turnout in the Dem primary but it looks like its not a fluke.

Like how you dismissed Hillary's lead in the PA poll but celebrated McGinty's lead in the same poll? I guess we all have our blind spots...

[IceSpear]

Was Democratic bed-wetting this bad in 2012? Don't remember.

I heard it was worse.

At least Romney actually led in the polls multiple times in October.

[IceSpear]

Mook says that "door knocks last weekend in PA were up 261% from same weekend in 2012; 108% in OH"

- can't link yet, but I saw it on Twitter.

I'll be joining them this weekend.

[IceSpear]

I see the Racist WV Hicks have raised Racist WV Hicklings!

[IceSpear]

So, to confirm where we are at the moment, CO and NV are looking really good, and FL is looking quite good?

CO/NV look good for Dems, FL/NC can be spun in either direction, which probably means they're very close.

[IceSpear]

Wisconsin early vote so far: 51% Dem, 37% Rep. In 2012 it was: 46% Dem, 39% Rep
2012: 46% Dem, 39% Rep, 15% Other (231,000)
2016: 51% Dem, 37% Rep, 12% Other (446,000)

relax bruh - it's all Trump Dems folks!

All those Reagan Democrats in Madison!

[IceSpear]

Wisconsin early vote so far: 51% Dem, 37% Rep. In 2012 it was: 46% Dem, 39% Rep
2012: 46% Dem, 39% Rep, 15% Other (231,000)
2016: 51% Dem, 37% Rep, 12% Other (446,000)

relax bruh - it's all Trump Dems folks!

All those Reagan Democrats in Madison!

IceSpear you literally made me spit out my beer on that....

If you don't have me on ignore from the primaries wanted to say thank you for making me laugh the hardest today, since Arch jumped in to comment on "Angry Puerto Ricans" in Florida, to correct the record on some people wondering about EVs in Florida.

Yeah.... there aren't a ton of Reagan Democrats left in Wisconsin period, let alone in Madison.

OT:

Just last Friday, I walked into a bar in a small Coastal Oregon town (Pop 750) and spent a little time on the Video Poker machines before chatting with a couple men with a few decades on me (55-65).

The old-time logger and Elk hunter and myself chatted for an hour while my wife was losing a few bucks on the slots, and although we didn't talk about the current Presidential Election, in the course of a conversation about the Timber Industry in a remote part of NorthCoast Oregon, he made an adamant point about how "Ronald Reagan was the worst President ever" that "destroyed the Unions" and, although some Republicans on this Forum that can't even grow facial hair, like to talk about this mysterious species, reality is that in most parts of the country, these are identified as Republicans, and it doesn't appear that old time Democrats that rejected Reagan, but still own firearms, opposed to increased environmental regulations that impact local jobs, are going down the route of the Trump Train.

True story, no hype, no BS....   If Tillamook County Oregon is going heavy D, even among the mythical species that Republicans and the MSM like to refer to as "Reagan Democrats, I gotta wonder what's going on in places like upstate Wisconsin and UP Michigan....

Thanks! I've never ignored anyone, but even if I did, I don't see why I'd ignore you of all people. You tend to give pretty good analysis. If I was going to ignore anybody it would be the trolls like henster and bronz, spammers like StatesPoll, the jferns of the world, etc.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, barring something extremely unexpected, NV is gone. Only question now is if Hillary wins by a big enough margin to drag CCM over the finish line.

Congrats to xingkerui and all the rest of us who never bought the junky Nevada polls.

Although I'm sure people will continue to have panic attacks whenever Ralston tweets about how Republicans won Washoe County by 2.6 votes or something, despite the fact that they need to crush it there to even have a chance at winning statewide...

[IceSpear]

Yeah, NV is safe D, but lol @ the idea that "Trump can't afford to lose it."