Is there any positive benefits to inflation? (user search)
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  Is there any positive benefits to inflation? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Is there any positive benefits to inflation?  (Read 1590 times)
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,319


« on: November 18, 2021, 04:25:20 PM »

The biggest positive effect on a macroeconomic scale is the erosion of accumulated wealth in favor of new earnings. That is, those who already have a great deal of wealth will see the relative value of their wealth decline in favor of those who are currently earning income, even if real wages also decline, i.e., on net inflation reduces wealth inequality.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,319


« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2021, 12:45:54 PM »

The biggest positive effect on a macroeconomic scale is the erosion of accumulated wealth in favor of new earnings. That is, those who already have a great deal of wealth will see the relative value of their wealth decline in favor of those who are currently earning income, even if real wages also decline, i.e., on net inflation reduces wealth inequality.

I don't think this is true.  Asset prices are way up.  Real wages are down for everyone but the bottom quartile.  Bottom quartile wages are not up as much as asset prices are.  The US stock market as a whole is nearly 1.5X its February 2020 peak.  Real estate prices in most areas are also about 1.5X February 2020 values, and well over 2X in some Sunbelt cities.  Are people really making 1.5X their hourly wage in February of 2020 doing the same type of work today?  Maybe some truckers and junior restaurant employees, but it's certainly not the norm.  

The largest portion of accumulated wealth is tied up in relatively fixed value assets, such as bonds, that can never outperform wage inflation when it is anywhere above baseline. That’s not to say that some people with accumulated wealth don’t do well during extended high inflation; they do. But most lose real wealth during extended inflationary periods. Inflation is what destroyed aristocratic wealth in Europe in the interwar period, e.g. Six months in any event is not very long at all to look at this; long term other assets such as real estate cannot keep pace with high inflation.

And, yes, I do think real wages have surged at the bottom. Paying the minimum wage of $7.25/hr was still very much the norm in a lot of businesses across the US pre-2020, but now practically nowhere is offering less than $12/hr, with many that would have been in single digits now in the $16-18/hr range. But, more significantly, wealth inequality goes down even if the gross wealth of those on the bottom stays $0 (and inflation can inflate away their debts with time, too) because the wealth of those on the top becomes worth less.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,319


« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2021, 03:49:14 PM »

The biggest positive effect on a macroeconomic scale is the erosion of accumulated wealth in favor of new earnings. That is, those who already have a great deal of wealth will see the relative value of their wealth decline in favor of those who are currently earning income, even if real wages also decline, i.e., on net inflation reduces wealth inequality.

I don't think this is true.  Asset prices are way up.  Real wages are down for everyone but the bottom quartile.  Bottom quartile wages are not up as much as asset prices are.  The US stock market as a whole is nearly 1.5X its February 2020 peak.  Real estate prices in most areas are also about 1.5X February 2020 values, and well over 2X in some Sunbelt cities.  Are people really making 1.5X their hourly wage in February of 2020 doing the same type of work today?  Maybe some truckers and junior restaurant employees, but it's certainly not the norm.  

The largest portion of accumulated wealth is tied up in relatively fixed value assets, such as bonds, that can never outperform wage inflation when it is anywhere above baseline. That’s not to say that some people with accumulated wealth don’t do well during extended high inflation; they do. But most lose real wealth during extended inflationary periods. Inflation is what destroyed aristocratic wealth in Europe in the interwar period, e.g. Six months in any event is not very long at all to look at this; long term other assets such as real estate cannot keep pace with high inflation.

And, yes, I do think real wages have surged at the bottom. Paying the minimum wage of $7.25/hr was still very much the norm in a lot of businesses across the US pre-2020, but now practically nowhere is offering less than $12/hr, with many that would have been in single digits now in the $16-18/hr range. But, more significantly, wealth inequality goes down even if the gross wealth of those on the bottom stays $0 (and inflation can inflate away their debts with time, too) because the wealth of those on the top becomes worth less.

I agree with the bolded.  High inflation is kryptonite for passive multigenerational wealth like thje estates of European nobility.  In modern America, though, a majority of millionaires are entrepreneurs.  This means they are way overexposed to the highest risk assets in the economy and the wealth gap will tend to widen with really low interest rates (strongly favors risk takers) and higher inflation (entrepreneurs selling in-demand products can raise their prices a lot faster and easier than employed people can get higher wages).  

In the American system, to the extent inflation hurts wealthy people, it screws retirees with above average 401K balances and paid off homes.  It also helps young soon-to-be wealthy people who took on large educational or mortgage debt to acquire in-demand skills and live in the right city for wage growth.  This is really an inter-UMC fight between those groups.  The very poorest don't feel price increases due to extensive subsidies and guaranteed access to various essential services.  The very wealthiest entrepreneurs don't feel price increases because they just double the price of their latest tech gadget and still sell nearly as many.

This is a fair comment on entrepreneurial wealth vs inherited wealth. However, to my mind the latter is much more concerning, and even though people like Bezos or Musk are the big headline-grabbers, most real wealth in the US is tied up in inheritances, family trusts, etc. As far as the entrepreneurs go, their wealth is largely notional; Jeff Bezos doesn’t actually have access to more than maybe $1-2 billion that he could actually spend, and a family like the Waltons are much wealthier in practice (and hit hard by inflation).

This is the reason why there is so much handwringing about inflation; it’s bad for the wealthy but basically neutral or good for the lower classes unless truly out of control (which 5% or even 10% annual inflation would not be).
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