How many votes will Alito get for confirmation? (2)
A18:
Now that we have a better idea.
I say 56.
Blue Rectangle:
I still think all 55 Republicans will vote yes. There will be less than five Democrats voting yes, and maybe only one (Ben Nelson).
56 looks likely.
The Duke:
The Republicans plus Nelson, which I'm pretty sure is what I said before.
Sam Spade:
Hmmm... I am actually still more bullish than most around here. Nelson (FL) and Stabenow were never interested in voting for him. About the only one I would consider half a surprise was the quick no by Salazar.
Considering all this, I will take my chance and move my number down from 62 to 61.
All 55 Republicans, plus Nelson (NE), Johnson, Pryor, Lincoln, Landrieu and a surprise. The surprise could be someone obvious like Byrd or someone not as obvious (thinking from NJ potentially). That is my prediction.
If any of the Republicans break, expect it to be Collins, Snowe, Chafee, in that order.
Alito will receive anywhere in the range of 53-63 votes. Any more or any less would be extremely unexpected.
A Democrat filibuster will receive the nuclear option to where there will not be judicial filibusters anymore. Therefore, I expect that to not happen. I think there are plenty more than 60 votes to meet cloture. These may not necessarily be supporters of Alito.
What the Republicans should want to happen is for Alito to receive under 60 votes. The Democrats should want him to receive over 60, because defeating him ain't gonna happen at this point, unless a DWI scandal comes out or something. ;)
We can already see how the far left-wing is foaming at the mouth over a Justice Alito. If he receives less than 60 votes in the end, their foaming could turn into full-scale attack with the intelligence of some of these people. Therefore, the Democrats will be smart and give him enough votes to avoid filibuster.
Btw, don't bet any money on this. I wouldn't. :)
Bdub:
I say he will get 57 votes. Nelson and one other Democrat will vote for him.
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