Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013

[Diouf]

SV is falling closer and closer to the threshold. They will probably only get a district mandate in Oslo, and perhaps one in Akershus, so a result below 4 % will be a catastrophe. That will also mean that a couple of ministers will not even make it into parliament. Also party leader Audun Lysbakken will miss out on a seat if they get below the threshold.

The early voting from Oslo shows that Miljøpartiet de Grønne will definitely get a seat; it looks more doubtful for Rødt.

[njwes]

If possible, will the Progress Party, Conservative Party, and Christian Dems try to form a coalition without the Centre Party?

[Diouf]

If possible, will the Progress Party, Conservative Party, and Christian Dems try to form a coalition without the Centre Party?

Do you mean without the Liberal Party? The Centre Party is a part of the centre-left government. It is quite hard to predict what the new government will look like; the most likely is perhaps a Conservative-Progress government supported by the Christians and the Liberals.

[Diouf]

TV2 just had SV down at 3.9 % which will mean 2 seats. One in Oslo for Minister of International Development Heikki Holmås, and a bit surprisingly one for party leader Audun Lysbakken in Hordaland.

[rosin]

TV2 just had SV down at 3.9 % which will mean 2 seats. One in Oslo for Minister of International Development Heikki Holmås, and a bit surprisingly one for party leader Audun Lysbakken in Hordaland.

On the other hand, NRK, who for a while has had SV under the threshold with 2 seats, are now projecting SV at 4,0 % with 7 seats

[rosin]

TV2 just had SV down at 3.9 % which will mean 2 seats. One in Oslo for Minister of International Development Heikki Holmås, and a bit surprisingly one for party leader Audun Lysbakken in Hordaland.

On the other hand, NRK, who for a while has had SV under the threshold with 2 seats, are now projecting SV at 4,0 % with 7 seats

Oh, now they are down again. This is gonna be a nail-biter!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They're stronger in Oslo than the rest of the country; does that mean they'll probably make it?

[Diouf]

They're stronger in Oslo than the rest of the country; does that mean they'll probably make it?

Most of the prognosis count in that they are stronger in Oslo than in the rest of the country, so it will be important whether their losses are lower there than elsewhere. Perhaps it could be to their disadvantage if MdG has gained much more in Oslo than elsewhere

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So far their losses actually seem worse than average in Oslo. So they may still be fycked.

[jaichind]

It seems that center-right opposition is over-performing exit poll and more in line with pre-election polls.

[rosin]

According to the present NRK prognosis, SV is projected at 4,1% with (a little) room down to the 4% threshold. Furthermore, AP is gaining a seat from tonights other big loser, FRP. In fact, it seems certain, that FRP is tonights biggest loser - but they will most likely gain government seats(!)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wonder how their supporters will react to them being in government, actually.

[jaichind]

Well, given where FrP were back in 2011 these results would be quite good.  I suspect their support will fall off once they are in government and not be able to absorb anti-establishment votes.

[Lasitten]

It seems that SV will get 7 seats and lose "only" 4 seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oslo is very tight between the two big parties: currently 30.4% Ap, 29.9% H (with 73% counted) earlier in the evening H were slight in front. The Conservatives are comfortably ahead in Bergen and Stavanger, while Labour is comfortably ahead in Trondheim.

[Lurker]

I think there's two realistic coalition governments at this point:

Høyre-Fremskrittspartiet or those two + Venste and Krf. I don't think either of the "centrist" parties would go into a H-Frp government all by themselves.

Also, SV seems very likely to make it - they are currently at 4,054% with 76,8% counted. Audun Lysbakken may just keep his job as SV leader then. But it's still too early to tell for sure.

Miljøpartiet will enter parliament for the first time, with one MP, due to a strong showing in Oslo.

[Jens]

Looks like SV will make the threshold, but one of their major profiles, Minister of Children, Equality and Inclusion Inga Marte Thorkildsen, wouldn't make it into parliament from Vestfold.
Siv Jensen and FrP looses quite a lot but calls it "3th best result in the history of FrP" - the minor detail is that the two better elections where the two last elections...

[njwes]

If possible, will the Progress Party, Conservative Party, and Christian Dems try to form a coalition without the Centre Party?

Do you mean without the Liberal Party? The Centre Party is a part of the centre-left government. It is quite hard to predict what the new government will look like; the most likely is perhaps a Conservative-Progress government supported by the Christians and the Liberals.

Whoops yes that's what I meant, thanks! Got a bit confused between the acronyms, the English names and the Norwegian names

[Diouf]

The Venstre leader seems quite purposeful in going for government posts. She said in the party leader round that "she didn't campaign for others to go into government, and that she believes that you get more influence within a government". The KrF-leader was not as clear but the two parties will probably follow each other. This points more towards a four party government; will be some exciting weeks

[freefair]

The Maths suggests that they could just about do it without the KrDs, if they're Ok with a majority of 2. Given Progress Libertarian roots it shouldn't be that hard to create a neoliberal alliance devoid of religious traditionalism.

[Viewfromthenorth]

The Maths suggests that they could just about do it without the KrDs, if they're Ok with a majority of 2. Given Progress Libertarian roots it shouldn't be that hard to create a neoliberal alliance devoid of religious traditionalism.

Venstre would not go along with that. The two centrist parties want to be able to rely on each other in government, because alone they could easily be overrun by H and FrP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quick little map showing leading party stuff.

[eric82oslo]

Any word on turnout so far ?

The turnout differences between regions are really wild in this election. From less than 51% in Oslo to incredible 81% in Akershus, which is basically the suburbian Oslo + a little bit more. For the nation as a whole, the turnout so far has been pitched to disappointing 71% only. It seems like the turnout is really horrific in most of the big cities like Oslo, Bergen and Stavanger. I have no idea why the differences are so huge. It's true that immigrants vote much less frequently than other groups, but even in Oslo, immigrants make up only 17% of all eligible voters. Another difference is of course that voters/inhabitants in the big cities are on average much younger than inhabitants in suburbia and other regions. A huge amount of the eligible voters in Oslo are younger than 40 years. It's a fact that younger voters turn out much less frequently than their older counterparts.

[Tender Branson]

Any word on turnout so far ?

The turnout differences between regions are really wild in this election. From less than 51% in Oslo to incredible 81% in Akershus, which is basically the suburbian Oslo + a little bit more. For the nation as a whole, the turnout so far has been pitched to disappointing 71% only. It seems like the turnout is really horrific in most of the big cities like Oslo, Bergen and Stavanger. I have no idea why the differences are so huge. It's true that immigrants vote much less frequently than other groups, but even in Oslo, immigrants make up only 17% of all eligible voters. Another difference is of course that voters/inhabitants in the big cities are on average much younger than inhabitants in suburbia and other regions. A huge amount of the eligible voters in Oslo are younger than 40 years. It's a fact that younger voters turn out much less frequently than their older counterparts.

71% ?

So, as I've said, a big increase in early voting doesn't necessarily mean higher overall turnout.

But 50% only in Oslo ?



What was turnout in Oslo 4 years ago ?

[Tender Branson]

100% counted:

30.9% A
26.8% H
16.4% FRP
  5.6% KRF
  5.5% SP
  5.2% V
  4.1% SV
  2.8% MDG
  1.1% RØDT
  1.6% Others

Turnout: 71.5% (-5%)