Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[minionofmidas]

Recovered isn't really accurate because even their best polls have them far weaker than what would once have been a poor election for them. But, basically, look at the current government and how its done. And then note that the only other party is the Shinners, who are still (aha) beyond the pale for many voters.

Oh no, they're inside now, as Christopher Marlowe accurately foretold:

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[ObserverIE]

Recovered isn't really accurate because even their best polls have them far weaker than what would once have been a poor election for them. But, basically, look at the current government and how its done. And then note that the only other party is the Shinners, who are still (aha) beyond the pale for many voters.

Oh no, they're inside now, as Christopher Marlowe accurately foretold:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Meath East, or at least its southern two-thirds, was in the pale, of course. The Shinners have already penetrated Louth and Meath West; Kildare will be more stubborn.

Although the media consensus seems to be that it's neck and neck between FF and FG for the seat, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Shinners poll well (their candidate is originally from Kells - thumbtacked onto Meath East in the last boundary revision - but is now the only candidate living in the southern, Dublin-exurban portion). I also wouldn't be surprised to see Labour fighting it out for fourth place with the tin-foil hat brigade Direct Democracy Ireland.

[ObserverIE]

Turnout is expected to be in the low 40s - higher in the rural north of the constituency and lower in the Dublin exurbia in the south. The weather has been relatively poor - some snow (though light by current European or even northern Irish standards) - and polling hours were cut "as an economy measure" from 0700-2200 to 0800-2100, which may have discouraged commuters and shift workers.

Counting starts this morning at 0900GMT - the Twitter hashtag is #mhe13 and local media are:

LMFM (local radio station)
Meath Chronicle (local weekly newspaper)

Expectations seem to vary between a narrow win for FF and a narrow win for FG, with SF expected to move into third and Labour, despite their *imaginative* election leaflets, heading for a clobbering.

[Leftbehind]

[...]Labour, despite their *imaginative* election leaflets, heading for a clobbering.

That line's nearly always laughable when you're propping up the Right. The Lib Dems tried to use it before they got roundly massacred in the locals and dropped it. In a Lib-Lab situation itd be a much better strategy.

[ObserverIE]

The Lib Dems tried to use it before they got roundly massacred in the locals and dropped it. In a Lib-Lab situation itd be a much better strategy.

Labour took this line up in the last week, having previously concentrated on gay marriage and abortion liberalisation - burning issues in a constituency which is half rural and half struggling lower middle-class exurbia.

Labour looking at a clear fifth place on the early tallies. At best.

[ObserverIE]

Looking like a FG hold on current trends - in terms of transfers, the Labour collapse will be offset by SF and Tinfoil Hat Party DDI votes being largely non-transferable.

[ObserverIE]

Final tally

FG 38.4 (-2.5)
FF 33.4 (+13.8)
SF 12.9 (+4.0)
DDI 6.6
Lab 3.9 (-17.1)
GP 1.6 (+0.5)
Ind Keddy 1.0
WP 1.0
Ind Martin 0.7
Ind O'Brien 0.3
Ind Tallon 0.2

Good for both FF and FG, middling for SF, disastrous for Labour.

[minionofmidas]

So.. FG hold thanks to getting Labour transfers?

What is DDI, exactly?

[Leftbehind]

http://directdemocracyireland.ie/

sh**te result.

[ObserverIE]

So.. FG hold thanks to getting Labour transfers?

What is DDI, exactly?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freemen_on_the_land

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_citizen_movement

[minionofmidas]

So.. FG hold thanks to getting Labour transfers?

What is DDI, exactly?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freemen_on_the_land

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_citizen_movement

So... given that a cursory glance at that DDI website (let alone their wiki semistub) doesn't exactly sound like these kinds of nuts... how far out into that territory (or how strong an influence within the party - newly launched parties, unless they're just a trillionaire's vanity vehicle or commission-of-evil vehicle, always kind a number of certifiable nutcases among their activists. Goes with the whole do-something-new-and-nonestablishment-while-also-thinking-you're-being-important territory) are we talking, exactly?

[ObserverIE]

So.. FG hold thanks to getting Labour transfers?

What is DDI, exactly?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freemen_on_the_land

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_citizen_movement

So... given that a cursory glance at that DDI website (let alone their wiki semistub) doesn't exactly sound like these kinds of nuts... how far out into that territory (or how strong an influence within the party - newly launched parties, unless they're just a trillionaire's vanity vehicle or commission-of-evil vehicle, always kind a number of certifiable nutcases among their activists. Goes with the whole do-something-new-and-nonestablishment-while-also-thinking-you're-being-important territory) are we talking, exactly?

The candidate (and party leader) here had been focussing on the problems of people and businesses who are having difficulties paying their mortgages and are facing repossessions (remember Meath is negative equity Ground Zero).

http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/column-ignore-the-conspiracy-theories-the-household-charge-must-be-paid-370964-Mar2012/

http://www.thejournal.ie/i-stopped-the-sheriff-activists-prevent-eviction-of-man-from-laois-home-362020-Feb2012/

http://freemanireland.ning.com/video/ben-gilroy-addresses-sovereigns-outside-savills-molesworth-street

http://freemanireland.ning.com/video/ben-gilroy-halts-receivers

[ObserverIE]

First Count:

McENTEE, Helen	FG	9,356	38.49%	-2.38%
BYRNE, Thomas	FF	8,002	32.92%	+13.31%
O'ROURKE, Darren	SF	3,165	13.02%	+4.14%
GILROY, Ben	DDI	1,568	6.45%
HOLMES, Eoin	Lab	1,112	4.57%	-16.47%
Ó BUACHALLA, Seán	GP	423	1.74%	+0.66%
McDONAGH, Seamus	WP	263	1.08%
MARTIN, Mick	Ind	190	0.78%
KEDDY, Charlie	Ind	110	0.45%
O'BRIEN, Gerard Michael	Ind	73	0.30%
TALLON, Jim	Ind	47	0.19%

Ó Buachalla, McDonagh, Martin, Keddy, O'Brien and Tallon eliminated.

[ObserverIE]

Second Count:

McENTEE, Helen	FG	9,356	+191	9,547
BYRNE, Thomas	FF	8,002	+104	8,106
O'ROURKE, Darren	SF	3,165	+205	3,370
GILROY, Ben	DDI	1,568	+225	1,793
HOLMES, Eoin	Lab	1,112	+133	1,245

O'Rourke, Gilroy and Holmes eliminated.

[ObserverIE]

Something Labour should think about (but won't):

http://rawsonsmediablog.wordpress.com/2013/03/28/why-labour-faired-so-poorly/

[ObserverIE]

Third Count:

McENTEE, Helen	FG	9,547	+1,926	11,173
BYRNE, Thomas	FF	8,106	+1,476	9,582

McEntee elected without reaching quota.

[ObserverIE]

Labour make a quick exit from the count.

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour make a quick exit from the count.

Better than this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8g-NrmSu6FQ

[minionofmidas]

Third Count:

McENTEE, Helen	FG	9,547	+1,926	11,173
BYRNE, Thomas	FF	8,106	+1,476	9,582

McEntee elected without reaching quota.

Almost half the Labour /SF/DUI ballots exhausted.

[Хahar 🤔]

Something Labour should think about (but won't):

http://rawsonsmediablog.wordpress.com/2013/03/28/why-labour-faired-so-poorly/

The comparison of Labour to the Greens is well worth considering.

[ObserverIE]

Third Count:

McENTEE, Helen	FG	9,547	+1,926	11,173
BYRNE, Thomas	FF	8,106	+1,476	9,582

McEntee elected without reaching quota.

Almost half the Labour /SF/DUI ballots exhausted.

Insert leukaemia versus brain tumour quote here.

[ObserverIE]

Something Labour should think about (but won't):

http://rawsonsmediablog.wordpress.com/2013/03/28/why-labour-faired-so-poorly/

The comparison of Labour to the Greens is well worth considering.

That's what happens when a social democratic party almost entirely abandons economic policy to its right-wing senior partner in the middle of an economic depression, while going on ad infinitum about social liberal and anti-clerical issues (in a country which still has the highest rate of religious practice in Europe apart from Malta and perhaps Poland).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's just absolutely and utterly insane. You'd have thought they'd have learned something from previous experience in government...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It's just absolutely and utterly insane. You'd have thought they'd have learned something from previous experience in government...

1951 was the last time Labour's vote improved after a spell in government.

In saying that, it isn't clear what they can do (that wouldn't instantly collapse the government).

[ObserverIE]

A bit more about Direct Democracy Ireland and their Freemanish links for Lewis:

http://sinechara.blogspot.ie/2013/04/direct-democracy-ireland-who-are-they.html

Since last posting, a Behaviour & Attitudes poll has put Labour down at 7% (other figures FG 27, Ind/Oth 25, FF 23, SF 15, GP 2); the core Labour vote is now at 4%.

Looking at the internals of the poll, Labour is well on the way to becoming a caricature of itself as a gaggle of upper-middle class urban secularists: its support among middle-class voters is three times its support among lower middle and working-class voters; its support is near collapse level outside Dublin; and what's left of its support is massively disproportionally non-religious by comparison even with Sinn Féin or independent supporters. The politicalreform.ie projection of those results would leave it with 3(!) seats in a hypothetical new Dáil.

To further rub salt in its wounds, one of its three MEPs today resigned from the parliamentary party, while remaining in the party as a whole, and a second MEP is tweeting solidarity with her.