Colombian congressional and presidential elections - March 13/May 29/June 19, 2022

[Red Velvet]

When can we expect results to start coming in?

[Red Velvet]

The anti-establishment guy who the press is saying is Colombia’s Trump/Bolsonaro is more likely to win against Petro in the runoff, right?

[Red Velvet]

4,47% counted

Hernandez 49,93%
Petro 48,08%

I don’t get where are the other 2% based on the website lol

[Red Velvet]

Almost 20% in...

Petro 49.73
Rodolfo 48.06.

It will be really close. If Petro wins these are lifechanging results for Colombia and LatAm, as it’s the most reliably right-wing country in South America. The left doesn’t usually win there at all!

[Red Velvet]

Petro’s margin only gets bigger as more vote comes in, it’s done.

Holy ****. This is one of those turning points for the region.

[Red Velvet]

Are results from expats, divided per country, released?

[Red Velvet]

Interesting that Colombians in the US so overwhelmingly voted for the rightwing candidate but Colombians in Canada were almost evenly split. FWIW I know a few Colombians in Toronto and they are all pretty left wing

Expats in the US, regardless of country of origin, vote more right-wing compared to expats in other countries, also regardless of the election. And because most immigrants are usually in US, it’s usually safe to assume the foreign vote will lean right because of this.

Especially if they live in Miami, I bet that if internal per region results are released you will find out that Colombians in Florida were the most right-wing in all of US. It’s a no-brainer.

The Expats in Europe also tend to be the most pro-left ones, especially when compared to expats in all of Americas. The only countries Petro won in the region were Cuba (duh!) and the Southern Cone (Chile, Argentina, Uruguay) which is where expats tend to have characteristics a little bit closer to the ones going to Europe. Also very interestingly, in Brazil Petro won too and it was the 3rd biggest win in all of the region, behind only Cuba and Argentina.

AMERICAS

Venezuela - Hernandez 83,39%
USA - Hernandez 79,32%
Costa Rica - Hernandez 76,40%
Paraguay - Hernandez 73,51%
Panama - Hernandez 72,69%
Dominican Republic - Hernandez 70,96%
Peru - Hernandez 63,98%
Bolivia - Hernandez 63,70%
Ecuador - Hernandez 60,58%
Canada - Hernandez 54,65%
Mexico - Hernandez 53,56%
-
Chile - Petro 56,95%
Uruguay - Petro 59,13%
Brazil - Petro 62,47%
Argentina - Petro 72,45%
Cuba - Petro 81,48%

EUROPE

UK - Hernandez 50,01%
-
Italy - Petro 54,09%
Ireland - Petro 55,47%
Spain - Petro 55,93%
Portugal - Petro 62,09%
Netherlands - Petro 63,20%
Turkey - Petro 67,21%
Poland - Petro 68,50%
Sweden - Petro 68,67%
Norway - Petro 68,91%
France - Petro 70,12%
Finland - Petro 73,14%
Germany - Petro 74,38%
Russia - Petro 84,75%

Other Places:

South Africa - Hernandez 64,19%
Malaysia - Hernandez 61,90%
-
India - TIE
-
Japan - Petro 49,40%
China - Petro 50,00%
Egypt - Petro 57,50%
South Korea - Petro 64,18%
New Zealand - Petro 64,41%
Australia - Petro 65,72%

[Red Velvet]

Florida is also the main headquarter for the global extreme right. I mean:

Fugitive of Brazilian Justice joins event with Bolsonaro in Orlando

Only place in the world that a Latin American president can organize a rally in foreign soil and attract all these kinds of people. Most the Bolsominion specialists / journalists that praise Bolsonaro the most live in freaking Miami.

Hell, Hernandez in Colombia wasn’t even campaigning in Colombia, but in Florida as mentioned here. That State is a full caricature at this point. Let all these Ultra Right Wing people start their own nation there pls.

[Red Velvet]

Serious question, is there a more right wing area in South America than El Poblado in Medellín? Those 85+% victories of the right that are common there must be something rare even among the wealthiest boroughs/neighborhoods in the continent.

Some whole cities in Southern Brazil voted for Bolsonaro in 2018 with those >80% margins. See:

- Blumenau (84% city average)
- Joinville (83% was the city average, some electoral zones with >85%);
- Londrina (80% city average)

And if you go to even smaller towns nearby those you can find even larger margins (Pomerode, the most German city in Brazil and which is near Blumenau, voted 87% for Bolsonaro). But I wouldn’t say those margins are constant if that’s what you’re asking, they got that big because it was an election that the right won and the momentum was in their favor, which is a different scenario from yours, since Petro won overall.

But usually 85% percent is the ceiling. Of relatively “big” cities, those were the ones the most favorable to Bolsonaro.

[Red Velvet]

Well, I think one of the constants we can clearly define for all these LatAm places where the right gets over 80% of the vote is that they’re significantly wealthier and usually whiter than their countries average.

In Brazil those places are usually in interior areas of the Southern Region, which have lots of European immigrant descendants. Many people in Pomerode (the town that was 87% for Bolsonaro) still keep the language and culture from their ancestors that came from German Pomerania region. But Pomerode has only 30.000 population, so it’s not like it’s significant in the grand scheme of things or anything.



Doing some research, the city that was the most pro-Bolsonaro considering ALL cities of the country was Nova Pádua though, which is also on the Southern Region, with 92,96%. It’s even smaller than Pomerode though (which is already not big), with just 2.500 population.

Nova Pádua is small town of immigrants from the Italian region of Veneto, running away from the misery established by the war against Austrians in their country around 1866 in the Austria vs Italy conflict, after which Veneto was passed to Italy. They still use Veneto dialect. So yeah, that’s the common trend here for these ultra-right-wing towns/regions.



Important to say the left also has their mirror strongholds with even better margins though. But the areas background is the exact opposite. Haddad, who LOST the 2018 election, managed to get his best result of all country in the town of Guaribas, Northeast Brazil, with population over 4.500 people only. Haddad got 97,99% there and there are other interior towns of the Northeast with similar results.

Many streets there aren’t even paved, to evidence the class and regional contrast of the vote: