Colombian congressional and presidential elections - March 13/May 29/June 19, 2022

[Walmart_shopper]

Was the Colombian high court's abortion ruling this year a very prominent part of the political discourse during the campaign? Did anyone make a big deal of it?

[Walmart_shopper]

My guess is Petro 52.5, Rodolfo 47.5.

[Walmart_shopper]

Almost 10 percent of the vote is in...

Petro leads 49.89 to 48.02.

[Walmart_shopper]

Does anyone know who will most likely win Chapinero in Bogota?

[Walmart_shopper]

Almost 20% in...

Petro 49.73
Rodolfo 48.06.

[Walmart_shopper]

Petro has 63.25% in Bogota. Not sure if that's high for him or nor, but it seems pretty solid.

[Walmart_shopper]

Nobody answered my question about Chapinero and the wealthier parts of North Bogota. Are these areas more likely to go for Petro or Rodolfo? (I didn't see any localized data yet breaking down the results by district or municipality).

[Walmart_shopper]

Nobody answered my question about Chapinero and the wealthier parts of North Bogota. Are these areas more likely to go for Petro or Rodolfo? (I didn't see any localized data yet breaking down the results by district or municipality).

I did, here .

I posted the results by locality for the first round in Bogotá (and a few other cities) a few pages back here. The results by locality will be available tomorrow, when the escrutinio is completed, and I'll share them once I compile them.

As icc guessed, I also think that Rodolfo must have won by rather unimpressive margins in Chapinero and Usaquén -- although the latter did show a pretty big divide in the first round between the very affluent neighbourhoods (Fico and Fajardo strong, Rodolfo weak and Petro very weak) and some more lower middle-class areas in the north of the locality, where Rodolfo was quite strong. I don't doubt that the very wealthy elite neighbourhoods in Bogotá voted for Rodolfo but I'll be curious to see the turnout, how high the blank vote was and how much better Petro did compared to the first round.

Sorry! Thanks.

I knew that the area was and is solidly uribista in the same way that wealthier parts of Mexico City (Santa Fe) are more panista. I just wonder if that actually would translate into support for a weird figure like Rodolfo without an urbista candidate in the runoff. The whole low-brow populist right thing just doesn't seem to vibe with the wealthy, Catholic conservative elite consensus of Chapinero and environs.

[Walmart_shopper]

Results by municipality (preconteo results)



More to say later but nothing particularly unexpected when looking at it from this basic angle: good but ultimately imperfect and just insufficient transfers from Fico to Rodolfo (I will need to drill deeper into this tomorrow to get a better idea), Petro confirms and shores up his strongholds, the regional divide remains quite important with mega-strongholds and lopsided results for both candidates.

In terms of cities: Rodolfo won Medellín, Bucaramanga, Cúcuta (with 81%, undoubtedly his best result in a big city by far), Manizales, Pereira, Armenia (these 3 quite narrowly), Ibagué, Villavicencio, Florencia, Yopal, Envigado, Itagui.

Petro won all Caribbean capitals, including 67.5% in Cartagena and 64% in Barranquilla, Bogotá, Cali, Popayán, Neiva, Pasto, Ipiales, Quibdó, Soacha, Palmira, Mocoa, Buenaventura, Tunja, Duitama, Sogamoso.

Is there neighborhood-level results available for Bogota or Cartagena?