2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Congressman Rick Saccone is pleased at these results

[Strudelcutie4427]

Congressman Rick Saccone is pleased at these results

Rick Saccone is a loser and shouldn’t have been nominated in the first place. Vote for Guy in the New PA-14 primary. We don’t need losers in congress

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

At this point, I have completely given up on tracking the generic ballot polls. All the pollsters, no matter what result they post, acknowledge the fact the GOP is probably going to lose the House in November.

[Strudelcutie4427]

At this point, I have completely given up on tracking the generic ballot polls. All the pollsters, no matter what result they post, acknowledge the fact the GOP is probably going to lose the House in November.

Just like how they said Hillary had a 95% chance of winning in 2016? 😜

[Sestak]

What was in the January poll that they conveniently omitted?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

At this point, I have completely given up on tracking the generic ballot polls. All the pollsters, no matter what result they post, acknowledge the fact the GOP is probably going to lose the House in November.

Just like how they said Hillary had a 95% chance of winning in 2016? 😜

It's like you popped right off of r/the_donald

[Landslide Lyndon]

At this point, I have completely given up on tracking the generic ballot polls. All the pollsters, no matter what result they post, acknowledge the fact the GOP is probably going to lose the House in November.

Just like how they said Hillary had a 95% chance of winning in 2016? 😜

Just like they said that Ed Gillespie and Roy Moore would win.

[Strudelcutie4427]

At this point, I have completely given up on tracking the generic ballot polls. All the pollsters, no matter what result they post, acknowledge the fact the GOP is probably going to lose the House in November.

Just like how they said Hillary had a 95% chance of winning in 2016? 😜

Just like they said that Ed Gillespie and Roy Moore would win.

Exactly. They’re clearly wrong more often than not. I wouldn’t get all cocky cuz of what these dudes are saying if I was a dem

[GeorgiaModerate]

What was in the January poll that they conveniently omitted?

GCB was 44/38.  Here's the whole poll: https://andersonrobbins.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/012418_national_january-24-release.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

At this point, I have completely given up on tracking the generic ballot polls. All the pollsters, no matter what result they post, acknowledge the fact the GOP is probably going to lose the House in November.

Just like how they said Hillary had a 95% chance of winning in 2016? 😜

I believe 538 had Hillary at about 70% during the week before the election (other forecasters were certainly higher), which meant they gave Trump a 30% chance.  This isn't that unlikely!  Think about a baseball player with a .300 batting average.  How likely is is that he'll make an out in an average at-bat?  That's far from a sure thing, and it's the same likelihood as Hillary's 70% chance.

[Landslide Lyndon]

At this point, I have completely given up on tracking the generic ballot polls. All the pollsters, no matter what result they post, acknowledge the fact the GOP is probably going to lose the House in November.

Just like how they said Hillary had a 95% chance of winning in 2016? 😜

Just like they said that Ed Gillespie and Roy Moore would win.

Exactly. They’re clearly wrong more often than not. I wouldn’t get all cocky cuz of what these dudes are saying if I was a dem

LOL, this guy is so stupid.

[Strudelcutie4427]

At this point, I have completely given up on tracking the generic ballot polls. All the pollsters, no matter what result they post, acknowledge the fact the GOP is probably going to lose the House in November.

Just like how they said Hillary had a 95% chance of winning in 2016? 😜

Just like they said that Ed Gillespie and Roy Moore would win.

Exactly. They’re clearly wrong more often than not. I wouldn’t get all cocky cuz of what these dudes are saying if I was a dem

LOL, this guy is so stupid.

It’s cuz I disagree with you doesn’t mean I’m stupid

[BudgieForce]

It's March.

Edit: "Narrowest it's even been" in effing March.

[henster]

I feel like we have the 'GOP surging' talk every month now.

[Virginiá]

I'm kind of curious how high Trump's approval can go while still resulting in a D wave. Obama was basically neutral/low disapprove in 2010 (Gallup) - maybe somewhere between -1 and -3, and Democrats got blown out in that midterm, losing the House PV by around 6.8%. The polls have expanded and tightened but every other metric still indicates a wave. Aggregated special election results+turnout, recruitment/donors, general midterm backlash effect and even strong approve/disapproves for Trump.

Either way, I'm not too concerned. Democrats are in much better shape than Republicans were in March 2010, polling-wise. My bet is that the environment begins to shift towards Democrats in the last few weeks and solidifies from there on out, regardless of where it was beforehand.

[King Lear]

It’s really amazing to see the Democratic lead collapse again, this is starting to get very reminiscent of the 2016 election where Hillary would take a big lead and then a couple weeks later Trump would start surging, and it would go back and forth like that until Election Day happened to occur during a week Trump was surging. My gut tells me the Democratic lead will fluctuate between now and November, but when the election happens, it will be when Republicans are on an upswing, thus resulting in them holding the House and gaining several senate seats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm kind of curious how high Trump's approval can go while still resulting in a D wave. Obama was basically neutral/low disapprove in 2010 (Gallup) - maybe somewhere between -1 and -3, and Democrats got blown out in that midterm, losing the House PV by around 6.8%. The polls have expanded and tightened but every other metric still indicates a wave. Aggregated special election results+turnout, recruitment/donors, general midterm backlash effect and even strong approve/disapproves for Trump.

Either way, I'm not too concerned. Democrats are in much better shape than Republicans were in March 2010, polling-wise. My bet is that the environment begins to shift towards Democrats in the last few weeks and solidifies from there on out, regardless of where it was beforehand.

That is what is expected, according to G. Elliot Morris.

[Holmes]

It’s really amazing to see the Democratic lead collapse again, this is starting to get very reminiscent of the 2016 election where Hillary would take a big lead and then a couple weeks later Trump would start surging, and it would go back and forth like that until Election Day happened to occur during a week Trump was surging. My gut tells me the Democratic lead will fluctuate between now and November, but when the election happens, it will be when Republicans are on an upswing, thus resulting in them holding the House and gaining several senate seats.

Oh, your gut says poll numbers will fluctuate over the next 8 months? Amazing analysis.

[junior chįmp]

Tiffany Trump calling it....blue wave imminent:

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It’s really amazing to see the Democratic lead collapse again, this is starting to get very reminiscent of the 2016 election where Hillary would take a big lead and then a couple weeks later Trump would start surging, and it would go back and forth like that until Election Day happened to occur during a week Trump was surging. My gut tells me the Democratic lead will fluctuate between now and November, but when the election happens, it will be when Republicans are on an upswing, thus resulting in them holding the House and gaining several senate seats.

Oh, your gut says poll numbers will fluctuate over the next 8 months? Amazing analysis.

rofl

King Lear, how was your gut in VA-Gov, PA-18, and AL-Senate?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It’s really amazing to see the Democratic lead collapse again, this is starting to get very reminiscent of the 2016 election where Hillary would take a big lead and then a couple weeks later Trump would start surging, and it would go back and forth like that until Election Day happened to occur during a week Trump was surging. My gut tells me the Democratic lead will fluctuate between now and November, but when the election happens, it will be when Republicans are on an upswing, thus resulting in them holding the House and gaining several senate seats.

People over-learning what happened in the most recent election and forgetting all of the election history that came before it are probably going about this the wrong way. Is there a chance that Republicans beat expectations in November? Sure. Is it likely? Probably not. But in the event that it does happen, it won't be because 2016 is the pattern for all elections going forward.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It’s really amazing to see the Democratic lead collapse again, this is starting to get very reminiscent of the 2016 election where Hillary would take a big lead and then a couple weeks later Trump would start surging, and it would go back and forth like that until Election Day happened to occur during a week Trump was surging. My gut tells me the Democratic lead will fluctuate between now and November, but when the election happens, it will be when Republicans are on an upswing, thus resulting in them holding the House and gaining several senate seats.

People over-learning what happened in the most recent election and forgetting all of the election history that came before it are probably going about this the wrong way. Is there a chance that Republicans beat expectations in November? Sure. Is it likely? Probably not. But in the event that it does happen, it won't be because 2016 is the pattern for all elections going forward.

Yeah, King Lear sounds like those Hillary supporters who thought Hillary would overperform because Obama overperformed in 2012, lol.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tiffany Trump calling it....blue wave imminent:

She's a millennial woman who just graduated from an Ivy League school and she's going to law school in Georgetown. Of course she's liberal.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Imagine being on the outs with your father because you aren't pretty enough to fuel his incestuous fantasies.

[MAINEiac4434]

Imagine being on the outs with your father because you aren't pretty enough to fuel his incestuous fantasies.

Imagine being the only child not ending up in federal prison.