Rick Snyder 2016

[Never]

Rick Snyder (aka One Tough Nerd) would be a stronger candidate than Romney. He is probably one of the options who could even win all of the Romney 2012 states + Florida and/or Ohio against Hillary Clinton.

[Never]

Governor of a big purple state with a business background?

Incorrect.

Michigan is a Democratic presidential base state.

Fair enough. I thought it was within five points of the popular vote, although it's actually closer to six. It's winnable for Republicans, but only in a very good cycle.

Technically, that suggests Snyder is even more impressive.

Bush only lost Michigan by five points in 2000 and three points in 2004.  Obama and Clinton carried it by wider margins because those were strong Democrat years nationally.  Michigan is clearly a swing state and NOT safely Democrat.

No. "Swing state or safely Democrat" is a false dichtotomy. It's a lean D state that would only fall in a Republican landslide.

Or possibly in a moderately Republican year like 2004 if the GOP nominee is from Michigan...

[Never]

This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.

But no, he would not be a 2016 contender. He isn't presidential at all.

I love your optimism, but I do think he'll win re-election this year.

Governor of a big purple state with a business background?

Incorrect.

Michigan is a Democratic presidential base state.

Fair enough. I thought it was within five points of the popular vote, although it's actually closer to six. It's winnable for Republicans, but only in a very good cycle.

Technically, that suggests Snyder is even more impressive.

Bush only lost Michigan by five points in 2000 and three points in 2004.  Obama and Clinton carried it by wider margins because those were strong Democrat years nationally.  Michigan is clearly a swing state and NOT safely Democrat.

No. "Swing state or safely Democrat" is a false dichtotomy. It's a lean D state that would only fall in a Republican landslide.

Or possibly in a moderately Republican year like 2004 if the GOP nominee is from Michigan...

Possibly. Gerald Ford lost nationally by two, but won Michigan by six. However, I don't think this will come in my lifetime. Granholm and Engler both left office with hideous approval ratings (I can't find Blanchard, Milliken, or Romney's approvals by the time they left office). Typically, when a Michigan politician is done with their elected office, they're done with politics in the state, period (one reason why Blanchard lost the 2002 Democratic nomination for Governor).

Put another way--in this strange universe where John Engler was the GOP nominee for President (I'm sure I can hear all of the board members laughing at this scenario), he wouldn't carry Michigan's electoral votes unless he won nationally by at least five or six. If Jennifer Granholm was the Democratic nominee for President, she may put those electoral votes in jeopardy--if she won them, it would be despite the fact that she was Governor of Michigan, not because of it.

The theory you suggest, "Or possibly in a moderately Republican year like 2004 if the GOP nominee is from Michigan..." is nice to think about in abstract. But remember--a real, living and breathing politician has to fill that role.

First off, I really appreciate your opinion, especially since you are from Michigan. That gives a useful insight.

When I wrote that a Republican nominee from Michigan could win the state in a moderately Republican year, I thought of Rick Snyder. If he won the nomination, it seems that he would be well-positioned to carry the state provided he has the wind at his back. It might be hard for Snyder to win the state if he only has 48-49% of the national vote (around Bush's performance in 2000), but if he can make it to 51% nationally, I suspect that Michigan would be about 50/50.

[Never]

This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.

Yes, he will.

Uh did you see today's PPP poll? It looks REALLY good for Schauer. His name recognition is atrocious yet he ties Snyder, and Snyder's approval rating is absolute garbage. And Snyder's "right to work" law is unpopular. It's Michigan, so undecideds will break Democrat, and like pbrower said, GOTV from big labor as well as a general increase in Schauer's name recognition (and as a result, popularity) will get Schauer over the line.

Have you seen the other recent polls?  Snyder is comfortably ahead in those.  I'd rather take my numbers from a nonpartisan pollster than the polling arm of the Democratic party.

Uh has a single nonpartisan polling firm addressed this race? So far it's solely been all those weird EPIC MRA and other junk Michigan polling firms that showed Romney up on Obama and such. PPP is incredibly accurate regardless of their partisan affiliation. In fact in 2012 they were on average a point or two more Republican than the real outcome.

It looks like EPIC MRA and the Detriot News were close to the final result in their last polls of the 2010 governor's race in Michigan, based on aggregated data from RealClearPolitics. Both aforementioned pollsters predicted that Snyder would win by 18 points, and he ended up winning by 18.2. Unfortunately, PPP stopped polling this race in September of that year, so we probably can't fairly judge their final poll showing Snyder up by 21 points. My point is that while PPP is a generally accurate polling company, they aren't perfect, and it might not be the best idea to only trust one pollster.

[Never]

This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.

Yes, he will.

Uh did you see today's PPP poll? It looks REALLY good for Schauer. His name recognition is atrocious yet he ties Snyder, and Snyder's approval rating is absolute garbage. And Snyder's "right to work" law is unpopular. It's Michigan, so undecideds will break Democrat, and like pbrower said, GOTV from big labor as well as a general increase in Schauer's name recognition (and as a result, popularity) will get Schauer over the line.

Have you seen the other recent polls?  Snyder is comfortably ahead in those.  I'd rather take my numbers from a nonpartisan pollster than the polling arm of the Democratic party.

Uh has a single nonpartisan polling firm addressed this race? So far it's solely been all those weird EPIC MRA and other junk Michigan polling firms that showed Romney up on Obama and such. PPP is incredibly accurate regardless of their partisan affiliation. In fact in 2012 they were on average a point or two more Republican than the real outcome.

It looks like EPIC MRA and the Detriot News were close to the final result in their last polls of the 2010 governor's race in Michigan, based on aggregated data from RealClearPolitics. Both aforementioned pollsters predicted that Snyder would win by 18 points, and he ended up winning by 18.2. Unfortunately, PPP stopped polling this race in September of that year, so we probably can't fairly judge their final poll showing Snyder up by 21 points. My point is that while PPP is a generally accurate polling company, they aren't perfect, and it might not be the best idea to only trust one pollster.

I don't, it just happens that only one pollster I trust has polled this race. It would be great to get SUSA or Quinnipiac here

I agree that both pollsters you mentioned would provide valuable insight. I like PPP, but I wait to make judgment calls on their data until a second reliable pollster corroborates their polling.