UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Lord Halifax]

Halloran as Reform Party candidate (they haven't announced anyone yet) is the persistent rumour.

His persistent anti-Tory rhetoric makes the most sense if he is running, but he may not have decided whether it'll be as an Independent or for Reform UK since he has delayed the decision to the last minute, or he is just trying to get as much media attention as possible when he declares. I used to think the latter was most likely, but I'm less certain now. He would probably prefer to be endorsed by Reform UK without having to formally join them (bad for his "local hero" brand with an official national affiliation).

[Lord Halifax]

Paul Halloran is not running.

"After weeks of sleepless nights, an element of guilt & pure frustration, I have decided to step away from this election as a candidate."
https://www.facebook.com/paulforbatleyandspen/

[Lord Halifax]

The Greens have withdrawn their candidate due to homophobic and sexist tweets he posted ten years ago, they probably don't have time to find a replacement before the deadline tomorrow. If so, good for Labour, might be worth an extra percentage point or two.
www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2021/06/06/green-party-to-replace-batley-and-spen-candidate/

[Lord Halifax]

"Reform UK has announced it will not stand a candidate in the Batley and Spen by-election in a bid to boost the Conservative Party’s chances of taking the Labour-held seat.

Leader Richard Tice said he hoped a blue victory would bring about a snap general election and “hopefully the final nail in Labour’s coffin”."

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/labour-richard-tice-batley-conservatives-keir-starmer-b939020.html

Their decision was made "in consultation with Laurence Fox’s Reclaim Party and Paul Halloran", so a joint decision not to stand among the "soft" right wing populists.  

Nominations close at 4pm local time today.

[Lord Halifax]

The final list of Batley and Spen candidates didn't differ that much from my preliminary list. But it may be of some interest to other non-Brits to have the updated version.

Three new candidates (in green) - incl. one Libertarian and one (other.. ) loonie, and no Green replacement candidate. The Heritage Party is the most moderate of the right wing populist options, followed by UKIP. But it's unclear if they can attract a sizable number of Halloran voters, the others are almost certainly too extreme. UKIP is a mess and a shadow of its former self, and the others are all micro parties.

Corey Robinson from the Yorkshire Party will likely finish third, but I doubt he gets the 5% required to save his deposit. Fairly sure Galloway is going nowhere and it's not a constituency that's favorable to the LibDems.

Far right or right wing populist:
Jayda Fransen - Independent (ex-EDL and Britain First)
Jack Thompson - UKIP
Anne Marie Waters - For Britain Movement
Susan Laird - Heritage Party
Thérèse Hirst - English Democrats

Libertarian:
Jonathan Tilt

Centre-right:
Ryan Stephenson - Conservative
Paul Bickerdike - Christian Peoples Alliance

Centrist or mixed left/right:
Tom Gordon - Liberal Democrats
Ollie Purser - Social Democratic Party
Andrew Smith - Rejoin EU

Centre-left:
Kim Leadbeater - Labour
Corey Robinson - Yorkshire Party
Ross Peltier - Green Party

Far left:
George Galloway - Workers Party of Britain
Mike Davies (Alliance for Green Socialism)

Loonie:
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)

[Lord Halifax]

Attention recently has majored on B&S, but before that we have C&A this week - and the increasingly voluble whispers from there is that the Tories fear it could be too close for comfort. If not worse.

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1404885017445081088?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

[Lord Halifax]

How seriously should you take the whole Galloway show and its ability to spoil Labour's chances? Does Leadbeater still have a shot at winning?

[Lord Halifax]

FWIW there seems to be a big surge in people betting on a Labour win all of a sudden.

That's probably mostly a matter of betting value (the odds have clearly been too lopsided).

[Lord Halifax]

Sadly, there will soon be a by-election in Old Bexley & Sidcup.

Doesn't look interesting. Rock solid Tory majority.

Why are the LibDems so weak in that constituency? "Middle-class outer London suburbia" sounds like LibDem turf.

[Lord Halifax]

Early rumours that the Tories have held on. Labour vote firmer than the Lib Dems would have liked.

And another that says the exact opposite.  Once against mixed signals.

What other rumor? Do you got a link?

The betting markets have switched and now have the Tories as most likely winners.

[Lord Halifax]

Seems to me the best explanation is that Labour was seen as an industrial party, and Chester was not so transformed by the industrial revolution even as it depended on the downstream effects of industry (similar to Blackpool, also Tory till 1997).

As with similar seaside towns, the hospitality industry was traditionally also monolithically pro-Tory.

because it involved a lot of small family run businesses, or..?

[Lord Halifax]

Within more urbanized regions, there were also sectarian patterns to the votes of both parties, though this has faded quite rapidly in recent years.

ironically with the cultural Catholics/gene pool Catholics of Irish descent voting for the Scottish nationalists

[Lord Halifax]

Within more urbanized regions, there were also sectarian patterns to the votes of both parties, though this has faded quite rapidly in recent years.

ironically with the cultural Catholics/gene pool Catholics of Irish descent voting for the Scottish nationalists

Other way round: Catholics tended to be Labour, Protestants tended to be SNP.

that depends on when we're talking about. Alex Salmond did a lot of outreach to Catholics to poach them from Labour and it paid off. Catholics disproportionally voted Yes in the referendum and have supported the SNP post-referendum.

[Lord Halifax]

Within more urbanized regions, there were also sectarian patterns to the votes of both parties, though this has faded quite rapidly in recent years.

ironically with the cultural Catholics/gene pool Catholics of Irish descent voting for the Scottish nationalists

Other way round: Catholics tended to be Labour, Protestants tended to be SNP.

that depends on when we're talking about. Alex Salmond did a lot of outreach to Catholics to poach them from Labour and it paid off. Catholics disproportionally voted Yes in the referendum and have supported the SNP post-referendum.

Yes but that is a fairly new development and its still too soon to say if it is a permanent one. Until the 2015 deluge, Scottish Catholics had tended to vote Labour for around a century.

Historically the SNP was known by some wags as the "Scottish Protestant Party" - and as recently as the infamous Monklands East byelection in 1994 the sectarian pattern in support was starkly obvious.

I'm well aware of that (as I thought I had made clear), but the new pattern is a lot more interesting.

[Lord Halifax]

Well, its maybe interesting if it is maintained - and the coming GE could tell us a bit about that.

("SNP wins most Catholics when it is winning almost everywhere" maybe isn't that earth shattering - sorry if this appears a little cynical)

the interesting aspect is that they reversed the historical pattern and became a party that did better with gene pool (Irish) Catholics than Protestants, that's fairly unique for a nationalist party. It's basically the equivalent of if Catalan nationalists hypothetically did better among descendants of Andalusian migrants than among Catalan speakers.