AZ-Magellan Strategies (R): Romney leads by 9

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hmm, this is definitely far off from the previous AZ poll we had. But based on Arizona'a previous presidential choices, I'll say that this one is closer to the median.

I think Obama will make a big push here, which will force Romney to play defense, but I still think Romney is the favorite.

However, in 10 years AZ will be Southern Cali Part Deux

According to this poll, Romney wins whites in AZ, 52-43, and wins Hispanics, 52-42. Obviously, if Romney were to win Hispanics in AZ, the state would be his, but this result seems unlikely.

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Troll poll

...but seriously guys, this is Magellan we're talking about...Obama is AT LEAST 15 points ahead with Hispanics in Arizona and probably more like 20-25 ahead.

About 47% of Arizona's Hispanics in 2004 voted for what I interpret to be the equivalent of CA's Prop 187, denying Illegals welfare. I wouldn't be surprised if a poll said that 40%-45% of AZ Hispanics approve of the "Arizona Immigration Law".

Obama probably leads amongst Hispanics, but not by 20 or 25.

Would you be surprised by a poll which showed that 81% of registered Hispanic voters in Arizona opposed SB-1070?

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/06/08/20100608arizona-immigration-law-backlash.html

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Only 28% of Hispanics voted for Jan Brewer, who championed the law and signed it. But 40% voted for John McCain after he had supported and defended the bill as "necessary under the circumstances".

The Rocky Mountain Poll claims that Romney is getting only 26% amongst Hispanics in Arizona.


My estimates at the present would be that Romney is somewhere in the mid 30's (with the possibly of an 5 to 8 point improvement depending on how he targets that group going forward) and with Obama around 50% or so.

My hunch is that Romney will perform at the lower end of your range in November -- McCain held the Hispanic vote in 2010, but he had a weak challenger, and also a history of supporting immigration reform (at least when there was an "r" in the month), and a history of support with Hispanics in the state. I'd guess AZ, like TX and FL, will remain a state where Republicans overperform with Hispanic voters, but by less than in the past.