Predictions: Who will win, margin of victory

[DabbingSanta]

Already started a thread for the Senate over on the Congressional Elections board. It seems really popular, so why not start one over here. Still nine days out but these are my current predictions. What are everyone else's thoughts?

OR: Brown (D) +5
NV: Laxalt (R) +3
SD: Noem (R) +3
KS: Kobach (R) +0.5
OK: Stitt (R) +6`
IA: Hubbell (D) +2
WI: Evers (D) +3
OH: DeWine (R) +1
GA: Kemp (R) +3
FL: Gillum (D) +2
CT: Lamont (D) +6
VT: Scott (R) +12

[Politician]

CT: Lamont +7
FL: Gillum +5
GA: Kemp +2 (runoff)
IA: Hubbell +2
KS: Kelly +2
NV: Sisolak +3
OH: Cordray +1
OK: Stitt +5
OR: Brown +6
SD: Noem +1
VT: Scott +10

[ON Progressive]

CT: Lamont +8
FL: Gillum +4
GA: Kemp 48-46 (runoff)
IA: Hubbell +2
KS: Kelly +1
NV: Sisolak +4
OH: DeWine +1
OK: Stitt +7
OR: Brown +5
SD: Noem +2
VT: Scott +12

[Xing]

Ask me again in a week, but for now:

CT: Lamont +7
FL: Gillum +4
GA: Kemp +2 (in the runoff)
IA: Hubbell +1
KS: Kelly +<1
ME: Mills +6
NV: Sisolak +5
NH: Sununu +8
OH: DeWine +<1
OK: Stitt +7
SD: Noem +4
WI: Evers +3

[MT Treasurer]

1) Democratic tidal wave, polls underestimate Democratic strength across the board (your typical Atlas prediction):

CT: Lamont +12
FL: Gillum +8 (D+1)
GA: Abrams +1 (D+2)
IA: Hubbell +5 (D+3)
KS: Kelly +4 (D+4)
ME: Mills +8 (D+5)
NV: Sisolak +7 (D+6)
NH: Kelly +5 (D+7)  
OH: Cordray +4 (D+8)
OK: Edmondson +2 (D+9)
SD: Sutton +3 (D+10)
WI: Evers +6 (D+11)
MI: Whitmer +11 (D+12)
IL: Pritzker +20 (D+13)
AK: Dunleavy +<1 (D+12)
RI: Raimondo +9
MD: Jealous +2 (D+13)
NM: Lujan-Grisham +11 (D+14)

2) Good year for Democrats, but no D tsunami:

CT: Lamont +9
FL: Gillum +4 (D+1)
GA: Kemp +2
IA: Reynolds +3
KS: Kobach +<1
ME: Mills +6 (D+2)
NV: Sisolak +4 (D+3)
NH: Kelly +3 (D+4)  
OH: DeWine +2
OK: Stitt +5
SD: Noem +3
WI: Evers +3 (D+5)
MI: Whitmer +7 (D+6)
IL: Pritzker +18 (D+7)
AK: Dunleavy +3 (D+6)
RI: Raimondo +7
MD: Hogan +5
NM: Lujan-Grisham +9 (D+7)

3) Democrats underperform expectations, D ripple rather than wave/tsunami, even the House is close:

CT: Lamont +8
FL: Gillum +1 (D+1)
GA: Kemp +4
IA: Reynolds +6
KS: Kobach +3
ME: Mills +3 (D+2)
NV: Sisolak +2 (D+3)
NH: Sununu +2
OH: DeWine +6
OK: Stitt +8
SD: Noem +5
WI: Walker +3
MI: Whitmer +5 (D+4)
IL: Pritzker +17 (D+5)
AK: Dunleavy +6 (D+4)
RI: Raimondo +4
MD: Hogan +8
NM: Lujan-Grisham +8 (D+5)
MN: Walz +2

[here2view]

OR: Brown (D) +8
NV: Laxalt (R) +1
SD: Noem (R) +5
KS: Kobach (R) +2
OK: Stitt (R) +8
IA: Hubbell (D) +5
WI: Evers (D) +2
OH: Cordray (D) +1
GA: Abrams (D) +.5*
FL: Gillum (D) +4
CT: Lamont (D) +6
VT: Scott (R) +12

*I have a friend who lives in GA that is a registered Republican and voted for Trump. He is voting for Abrams, and thinks that based on the feel and environment there she'll win. I was down there in August and kind of agree with him. The state is less Republican than in previous years, and may be a battleground by 2024.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Only posting about the ones I care about

FL: Gillum +4
GA: Abrams +1 (She wins 50-49 on election night)