Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

An internal poll conducted for the Georgia House GOP Caucus points to troubling signs for Republican leaders: President Donald Trump is deadlocked with Joe Biden and voters aren’t giving the White House, Gov. Brian Kemp or the Legislature high marks for the coronavirus response.

The poll also suggests trouble for U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler, showing the former financial executive with 11% of the vote and essentially tied with Democrats Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock. U.S. Rep. Doug Collins leads the November field with 29% of the vote, and outdoes Loeffler among Republicans by a 62-18 margin.

• Voters are evenly split on Trump, but Kemp’s disapproval rating (52%) outweigh his approval rating (43%). Loeffler is deeper underwater after grappling with an uproar over her stock transactions during the pandemic, with an approval of 20% and disapproval of 47%. Collins’ approval rating is about 10 percentage points higher than his disapproval.

• Georgians say their top priority is controlling the spread of the coronavirus and returning life to normal (35%), followed by rebuilding the economy (25%) and providing access to affordable, quality healthcare (17%).

• Trump and Biden are in a statistical tie in the race for president, with Trump at 45% and Biden at 44%. Only about 5% of Georgians are undecided, and another 6% back a third-party candidate.

• U.S. Sen. David Perdue leads Democrat Jon Ossoff 45-39 in a head-to-head matchup, with 12% of voters undecided.  

• More Georgians said they were most concerned with public health (60%) than the economic impact (36%) of the pandemic.  

• A majority of voters disapprove of the way Trump (51%) and Kemp (54%) are handling the pandemic. The General Assembly barely breaks even on the question, and many voters signaled they don’t know what lawmakers are doing.

• About 58% of voters said Georgia is moving “too quickly” to ease restrictions, though most (54%) back social-distancing measures and business closures.

• A plurality of votes (34%) think the “worst is yet to come” from the pandemic, while only about 22% think the worst is over. About 30% feel “we’re in the middle of the worst right now.”

• Most Georgians feel social distancing policies should continue at least a few more weeks, if not months, and only about 15% contend the state should “open everything now.”

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/internal-gop-poll-points-troubling-signs-for-georgia-republicans/hb6wfmQ7sQSkuHKXiipZdN/

[Adam Griffin]

Rep. David Scott skips debate with Democratic challengers in 13th District

There was one glaring absence from Monday’s debate featuring Democratic candidates for Georgia’s 13th Congressional District: incumbent U.S. Rep. David Scott.

The other three candidates, including a former mayor, a former county party chairman and a former state representative said Scott’s decision not to participate was just one more example of why the believe he should be replaced.

I really wish there was a chance for an upset here. Michael Owens is a good guy and would be a far better representative of the district than "blue dog" Scott ever could hope to be.

[Adam Griffin]

Might be a stupid question, but why is Chattahoochee County competitive when it's not a major urban center, has no colleges, and it was only 18.8% black as of the 2010 census? How did Obama win it in 2008 and barely lose it in 2012?

Someone else on discord and I were talking about this 2 weeks ago.
It's a military base county.

Turns out that's not the explanation - the explanation is even weirder: as of the 2010 census, millennials made up 59.7% of the population of the county, the highest of any county in the country.

Again military base lol- which is mostly young men.

Well, yes and no.

There are over 100,000 people working, training and/or living in Fort Benning. That's a huge presence - yet Chattahoochee County only put up around 1,500 votes in 2016. The vast majority of Chattahoochee County (and like half of Muscogee County) land is Fort Benning. The area in red is the part of Chattahoochee where typical residents can be found (currently around 10,000).



The rest - to my knowledge - are not casting votes in Chattahoochee County unless they work on-base and live in the civilian segment of Chattahoochee as well (i.e. like any normal resident). Even among military turnout, something like 1% of Fort Benning would be unimaginable. Of course, the vast majority are either commuting in from other counties to work or are still registered in their home jurisdictions from pre-deployment/training.

A certain segment of young servicemembers do actually register to vote in the county (whether it be on-base or they live in the non-base segment of the county). In 2016, 18-29 year-olds made up 27% of registered voters (compared to 17% of votes), while 55 and up was 20% of RVs (despite being 37% of voters).

So basically, a large chunk of people voting in Chattahoochee are non-military (or at least "traditional residents", living off-base, owning/renting homes, etc) - but there's also a small number of servicemembers who are registered to vote (and who actually do vote) in the county.

However, the military presence in voting isn't actually that big of a factor here - look at how 18-29s were only 17% of the electorate, as opposed to like 18% nationally. You might be able to argue that the older servicemembers living here are more D than their native Chattahoochee cohorts, but that's a different discussion entirely.

[Adam Griffin]

If you take the ATL metro and Columbus, Macon, Augusta, Savannah, Albany and Athens out of the statewide totals, then Abrams loses by 39 points:

Kemp    809,487 (69.41%)
Abrams 356,726 (30.59%)

Granted, that's only 30% of the statewide vote, but those margins make it very meaningful.

Geez, wonder what that looks like if you subtract the rural black counties.

Those counties have relatively few people in them and many were very close to 50/50, with Liberty, Hancock and Macon Counties being the only 3 that netted Abrams more than 1,000 votes. However, If you take out all of the remaining Abrams counties (73k votes total; 57-43 Abrams) from the above numbers, then Kemp's margin expands by another 3.5 points (42-point win):

Kemp    777,708 (71.17%)
Abrams 315,040 (28.83%)

[Adam Griffin]

100 year-old yellow dogs still lighting candles next to their FDR portraits. RIP Greatest Generation

[Adam Griffin]

Why the spike in voters for people born in the late 90s compared to the mid 90s?

Basically everybody gets auto-registered now in GA (mostly when they pass through DMV). Thanks to this year's universal ABM application campaign, those who are teenagers or in their early 20s are far more likely to actually reside at the address where they first registered when they got their driver's license. If only updating info via DMV, that info only gets updated once every 5-8 years, depending on which license you get. Young people move a lot: the chances of somebody who is 25 still living where they did when they were 18 is much lower than it is for somebody who's 21.

There's also still a wave of people who haven't been picked up by AVR yet (who got their licenses last renewed in 2012-2016) that likely compounds the problem among youngs, who'd be between 23-26 now. That'd suggest that people born between 1994-1997 would be most likely to have the lowest turnout through universal ABM mailings (by virtue of out-of-date VR addresses/not being registered at all yet), which seems to be the case here.  

[Adam Griffin]

Sorry if this is the wrong topic, but I figured I would get the quickest response from Griff if I posted here .

Anyway, my question is-- How much protest vote is left in rural GA? I remember in 2016 Sanders cracked 40 in most of northern GA and 44 in Brantley (which Kemp won 91-8 LOL). Are we going to see similar amounts of protest voting this time around (controlling for the fact that Biden is the only remaining candidate)?

By your definition: no. Maybe if all of the primary vote had occurred in March (when it was initially scheduled) you could expect a good 30-35% for Sanders in rural North GA assuming the national trajectory at the time (or outright wins had Sanders walked from Super Tuesday with a plurality/majority of delegates), but a solid majority of the Democratic primary vote will have been cast after its rescheduling to June/after the state mailed ballot applications to everybody.

Additionally, there'll be minimal cross-over protest-voting from the GOP since the presidential & state/local primaries were rescheduled/combined on the same day (historically, pres primary is in March and state/local in May); more Ds will probably crossover to vote R than the other way around in the areas you mentioned given local GOP dominance/desire to weigh in on local de-facto GE outcomes in the GOP primary.

So regardless of percentage, I doubt there'll be any real D "protest-voting" in GA this cycle in rural areas - though I'd argue that what you saw in GA in the 2016 presidential primary wasn't "protest voting" given 1) the areas where Sanders did well are dominated by the GOP, 2) there is no party registration in GA and 3) Sanders generally did best in overwhelmingly white areas where a combination of Democratic racial polarization and general strong performance for Sanders among whites was to be expected regardless. Especially in NW GA, a combination of rural white and young Latino voters legitimately gave Sanders their votes out of preference in '16 rather than protest.

If you want to know the "protest effect" in Southern Appalachia, then compare Sanders' performances in North GA to counties across the state line in Western NC (closed primaries there; basically a 10-point margin difference).

[Adam Griffin]

Statewide margins seem indicative of GA being flippable this year (just like the EV March pre-cancelled primary figures indicated).

Most county margins are utterly useless, unfortunately. Safe D counties siphoning off R voters to decide local primary/de-facto GE outcomes; Safe R counties siphoning off D voters for the same reason. Only the somewhat close/flipping counties where the flip is occurring so rapidly that voters of one party haven't yet begun clustering into the dominant party's primary have realistic numbers (like Cobb, and Gwinnett - but Gwinnett's would be lopsided for Ds too if younger Latino/Asian voters cast ballots at meaningful levels; bit of a coincidence here).

I really wish we could have completed the presidential primary as a separate contest for analysis. This year's is so unprecedented and such a hybrid that it mucks up comparisons.  

[Adam Griffin]

Most county margins are utterly useless, unfortunately. Safe D counties siphoning off R voters to decide local primary/de-facto GE outcomes; Safe R counties siphoning off D voters for the same reason. Only the somewhat close/flipping counties where the flip is occurring so rapidly that voters of one party haven't yet begun clustering into the dominant party's primary have realistic numbers (like Cobb, and Gwinnett - but Gwinnett's would be lopsided for Ds too if younger Latino/Asian voters cast ballots at meaningful levels; bit of a coincidence here).

Agreed. I don't think you'll see any insane outliers this time (like solidly-R Clinch County voting 75% Dem in the 2018 primary due to local factors,) so the county map based on which counties vote for which party will look fairly typical for a two-party race in Georgia.

You're right that the margins are going to be inflated in quite a few counties, though. For example, Burke County, even if Biden wins it this year, is not going 68-30 Dem. Likewise, Baker County is not going 90-10 Dem.

Taking a look at even the still-quite R-but-D-trending suburban counties, the margins are insane. Down by 2 in Fayette (Kemp +13)? Down by 8 in Houston (Kemp +17)?

If one just looked at the metros and suburban counties (which are a big part of the state, of course) and guessed on that, they tell a story of Democrats winning by 6-8 points, rather than one where Democrats are up by a half-point; that's only 2 points better margin-wise than 2018 GE. That doesn't even include the smattering of heavily-D small counties like you mentioned as well.

At any rate, it probably balances out overall and the statewide margin is likely quite close to current GE reality.

[Adam Griffin]

Democrats have good leads in districts 6 and 7

This does make sense with the county numbers we're seeing, but where are you finding the data for CDs specifically?

http://georgiavotes.com/ doesn't have any partisan breakdown for CDs unfortunately.

Not sure where that data originates, but I did run the figures myself using the absentee voter file data (updated about an hour ago) from the Secretary of State. Unfortunately, I forgot to do returned ballots instead of mailed ballots, so it's worth deducting 1-2 points from the margins here in favor of Republicans. This also excludes non-partisan ballots.

From this, it seems Democrats have a double-digit lead in GA-6 and a very thin lead (~1-2 points) in GA-7 in terms of returned ballots. It's possible extensive campaigning and messaging within the metro has negated the returned/mailed difference (or even reversed it), but without additional confirmation, I'm skeptical.

 

[Adam Griffin]

Seeing Democrats only ahead by 3.4 points in GA-7 in requested ballots given...

1) 2018 performance (Abrams +1.4)
2) general suburban ballot overperformance of 7-15 points across most suburban counties

...is not the best sign in generic terms.

However, given the very large share of Latino & Asian voters in GA-7 and the fact that they tend not to participate in normal primaries/are more likely to move & therefore miss their ballot applications for this election (*waves from Whitfield County*) isn't necessarily indicative of GE performance either. Pretty sad that my precious Whitfield County has the largest Latino electorate by percentage in this primary (5%), but of course it also has the largest Latino population percentage as well (35%).

[Adam Griffin]

Seeing Democrats only ahead by 3.4 points in GA-7 in requested ballots given...

1) 2018 performance (Abrams +1.4)
2) general suburban ballot overperformance of 7-15 points across most suburban counties

...is not the best sign in generic terms.

However, given the very large share of Latino & Asian voters in GA-7 and the fact that they tend not to participate in normal primaries/are more likely to move & therefore miss their ballot applications for this election (*waves from Whitfield County*) isn't necessarily indicative of GE performance either. Pretty sad that my precious Whitfield County has the largest Latino electorate by percentage in this primary (5%), but of course it also has the largest Latino population percentage as well (35%).

You really just went all Dems in Disarray.

Read my entire post, ya dullard.

[Adam Griffin]

Representative Scott of GA13 looks like he may be heading for a runoff - anybody expected that? And against this person?

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1270569327268442112?s=20

Glorious News! I certainly didn't expect it to happen.

Waittt.....

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1270562161648115716?s=20

Terrible News! This is what happens when you have next to no formal Democratic committees or infrastructure in SW Georgia. The guy doesn't even have a website, photo or campaign it appears. Still plenty of outstanding vote, though.

[Adam Griffin]

David Scott's almost certainly heading to a runoff (currently at 48.3% and dropping). At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if he dropped below 45%.

70k votes in thus far (will be at least another 30-40k), with Clayton over-represented. Scott's at or below 46% right now in every county but Clayton (where he has 55%). Lots of mail ballots to be counted still and whether there are any real biases between ED/AIP/ABM may change the math, but Waites is holding strong in her home turf of Fulton - and pretty much everywhere else at the moment except Clayton and Fayette. She could end up hitting 35% if everything goes well for her.



Reporting %s aren't necessarily accurate; there are numerous counties around the state that say "100%" that still don't have mail ballots included, which are close to half of all votes. Best to consider the reporting percentages reflective of in-person vote, with no guarantees on mail ballots.

[Adam Griffin]

Is this Senate race going to a run off or are there enough votes still out in DeKalb/Fulton to nip this in the bud?

Still plenty out, but Ossoff's problem is that he's barely beating his opponent (which is the 50%+1 threshold) in Fulton/Dekalb/Clayton, and he's been sitting at like 48% for quite some time after ATL started reporting. I don't know which precincts are outstanding and which aren't, but given Ossoff's numbers haven't been exactly impressive (i.e. meaningful majorities) in most of the other metro counties around the state, I'd lean toward this being a runoff. Ossoff probably benefits more from a surplus of suburban white vote potentially being out there than urban black vote at this point.

Can't be overstated that there are still probably 300-400k votes out statewide, though.

[Adam Griffin]

With regard to GA-13 runoff mentioned above, here is the percentage of the Democratic vote each county comprised in the 2018 gubernatorial election within the congressional district. While this isn't a perfect comparison for a primary, it's still approximate enough to perform some basic assessments.

23.73% Fulton
22.57% Clayton
21.37% Cobb
14.49% Douglas
13.87% Henry
03.97% Fayette

Since my previous GA-13 post, 10k more votes have dropped. Scott has dropped nearly another percentage point. And here is what each county comprises currently in the congressional primary:

28.97% Clayton (+6.4)
19.79% Fulton (-4.0)
16.97% Douglas (+2.4)
16.32% Henry (+2.5)
14.60% Cobb (-6.7)
03.33% Fayette (-0.7)

Fulton and Cobb are still way under-represented in reported votes, and these are Waites' two best counties. Clayton is waaay over-represented, which is Scott's best county (and the only one where he has a majority). Douglas and Henry are also over-represented, but Waites and Scott's totals there are very close to their district-wide figures right now.

This will definitely continue to get closer; Scott's dropping below 45% unless mail ballots are very favorable to him. Hell, he might end up closer to 40 than 45 when it's all done.

[Adam Griffin]

What is your view on the prospects of Keisha Waites in the runoff against Scott?

She'll be a big underdog, but Scott has done basically nothing during the primary. No campaigning, no debates (Sestak mentioned he hadn't raised any money either?). Many progressive and activist-oriented groups have long had problems with Scott's "blue dog" BS in a 70% Democratic district, so I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of in-state (and maybe out-of-state) money and energy pours her way - assuming she gets it together.

What's troublesome (as of the beginning of May):

The incumbent also faces a fundraising advantage. He had $281,877 in the bank at the end of the first quarter, compared to a -$3,685 balance logged by Peters, according to the Federal Elections Commission website.The site shows no reports from Owens since the end of September when he had a $14,529 balance, and it lists no documents for Waites.

She's since reported raising $875 as of 5/20 (with $0 cash on hand), while Scott had $240,000 on hand. Frankly embarrassing for somebody who served in the General Assembly.

[Adam Griffin]

Democrats outvoted Republicans in GA-07 by over 15000 votes, or 59-41

Literally don't believe any results you're currently seeing on elections websites (especially SoS: not sure WTF is wrong there).

See my post from Monday: there were over 60,000 GOP ballots mailed in GA-7 during early voting alone (and 63,000 DEM ballots mailed), so unless only a little over half of GOP mailed ballots were returned and literally no Republicans voted on Election Day in the district, those numbers are completely wack.

It would not surprise me if Democrats gained momentum from election day voting in a district like GA-7, though: young voters, Latinos and Asians in particular tend to vote more so on the day of an election than early (and certainly more so than via mail). This is why initial returns in many places were more favorable to Sanders before mail ballots started getting counted (also why ED vote in my home county of Whitfield - which has the highest Latino population % of any GA county - more often than not is a bit more favorable than EV; "early voting is for whites & blacks; election day voting is for Latinos and Asians").

[Adam Griffin]

Adam Griffin I raised concern in a different thread about GA-07 being called a runoff prematurely by AP, would you agree with my assessment? It seems like there may be around 23k outstanding uncounted mail-in votes in just the Gwinnett portion of the district (Forsyth has not counted their mail-in votes as well). Considering Bourdeaux's strength in the counted mail-in votes in Gwinnett and relatively strong numbers among early in-person voters as well, I imagine she should be able to exceed 50% and avoid the runoff?

I haven't been following granular precinct results for most of metro ATL, but given Bourdeaux is now much closer to 45% than 50%, I doubt even mail ballots would save her. I wrote a couple of weeks ago somewhere else how Lopez (Romero) was putting more work into the district than any other candidate in many ways, so it doesn't surprise me with her history of mobilizing Latinos in particular that she was able to secure 2nd place. Given Latinos heavily rely upon ED voting rather than EV (let alone mail), I'm sure the mail ballots will be more favorable to Bourdeaux (or at least less favorable to Brenda), but color me skeptical there are enough to clear 50%+1 (unless practically none of the mail ballots have been counted yet).

[Adam Griffin]

Democrats outvoted Republicans in GA-07 by over 15000 votes, or 59-41

Literally don't believe any results you're currently seeing on elections websites (especially SoS: not sure WTF is wrong there).

See my post from Monday: there were over 60,000 GOP ballots mailed in GA-7 during early voting alone (and 63,000 DEM ballots mailed), so unless only a little over half of GOP mailed ballots were returned and literally no Republicans voted on Election Day in the district, those numbers are completely wack.

It would not surprise me if Democrats gained momentum from election day voting in a district like GA-7, though: Latinos and Asians in particular tend to vote more so on the day of an election than early (and certainly more so than via mail). This is why initial returns in many places were more favorable to Sanders before mail ballots started getting counted (also why ED vote in my home county of Whitfield - which has the highest Latino population % of any GA county - more often than not is a bit more favorable than EV; "early voting is for whites & blacks; election day voting is for Latinos and Asians").

It has to be mostly Election Day votes, right? But this number is from both NYTimes and DDHQ, both reputable. GA SOS is way behind everyone else

Ultimately DDHQ & NYT are likely extracting reports from individual counties; whatever hasn't been counted yet can't be reported. So the numbers can be both "reputable" and "completely incomplete".

When you say "it" has to be mostly ED votes, what do you mean by "it"? Of what has reported? Probably; early in-person votes tend to be the first reported, followed by election day votes, followed finally by mail/provisional ballots. I'd say virtually all of the in-person vote statewide is in at this point. We're just waiting on the remaining one-third to one-half of statewide mail ballots to be counted - which are disproportionately likely in the ATL metro.

Many counties had anywhere from 5-10x the number of mail ballots to count compared to past similar turnout elections. Just as an example, my county started tallying mail ballots at 9 AM Tuesday, and finished 13 hours later; in the 2018 general, they started when the polls closed and it took until nearly midnight to work through one-fifth the number of mail ballots we received in this primary. Now imagine you're in a county with many times that number but similar resources.

It would not surprise me if GA-7 had 140-150k voters across the two parties' primaries given population growth and sheer competition in the area once all ballots are counted (which, to address my previous post, would indicate a very large share of mail ballots haven't been counted yet). Those ballots will likely be more favorable to Bourdeaux, but I'm not sure the difference will be enough to matter in terms of 50%+1 (perhaps it could change the 2nd place contestant).  

[Adam Griffin]

Something I haven't seen mentioned thus far: the Democratic undervote between presidential and senatorial contests. Despite the presidential contest being at the top of the ballot, roughly 7% of Georgia Democrats skipped the presidential contest but cast votes in the Senate contest. This is...substantial. If it were a general election, I'd be screaming voter fraud. Amico sued in 2018 over roughly half this discrepancy - which was an unprecedented discrepancy then.

[Adam Griffin]

Something I haven't seen mentioned thus far: the Democratic undervote between presidential and senatorial contests. Despite the presidential contest being at the top of the ballot, roughly 7% of Georgia Democrats skipped the presidential contest but cast votes in the Senate contest. This is...substantial. If it were a general election, I'd be screaming voter fraud. Amico sued in 2018 over roughly half this discrepancy - which was an unprecedented discrepancy then.

So here is potentially a big part of this discrepancy I discovered while going over the midnight happenings in my own county just now. Apparently the mail ballots that were cast for the presidential primary prior to the cancellation/move/merger of the pres & state primaries have not been counted (at least in Whitfield!) yet; they'll be counted today. If that is a common occurrence throughout the state, then it could explain why the presidential primary raw turnout is 7% lower than the Senate turnout; when people who voted by mail in Feb/Mar cast their ballots, it was just for President. If those ballots haven't been counted/reconciled, then of course the presidential totals would be lower. However, I don't know if this is something happening on a grand scale throughout the state or just something decided in my own county.

[Adam Griffin]

Something I haven't seen mentioned thus far: the Democratic undervote between presidential and senatorial contests. Despite the presidential contest being at the top of the ballot, roughly 7% of Georgia Democrats skipped the presidential contest but cast votes in the Senate contest. This is...substantial. If it were a general election, I'd be screaming voter fraud. Amico sued in 2018 over roughly half this discrepancy - which was an unprecedented discrepancy then.

So here is potentially a big part of this discrepancy I discovered while going over the midnight happenings in my own county just now. Apparently the mail ballots that were cast for the presidential primary prior to the cancellation/move/merger of the pres & state primaries have not been counted (at least in Whitfield!) yet; they'll be counted today. If that is a common occurrence throughout the state, then it could explain why the presidential primary raw turnout is 7% lower than the Senate turnout; when people who voted by mail in Feb/Mar cast their ballots, it was just for President. If those ballots haven't been counted/reconciled, then of course the presidential totals would be lower. However, I don't know if this is something happening on a grand scale throughout the state or just something decided in my own county.

Why didn’t they just void all the March ballots and just start it clean?

I voted in the Presidential primary on the first day of early voting in March, before postponement.  Why should my legitimate early vote be canceled?

Because wouldn’t some people accidentally vote for President twice?

They screened for that on the front-end. I voted early by mail in the PPP as well, and my second ballot only contained the non-presidential primary portions. The fact that my county (and/or many counties, or even all counties) broke this up and have yet to count the PPP-exclusive ballots feels more like an easily-segmented clerical decision to get them out of the office before sunrise this morning.

Again, it can't be overstated: using my county as an example, they never handled more than 1,200 mail ballots in any election (that was the 2018 general). Including the early mail PPP ballots, they had more than 6,200 this time to sort through (5,800 post-merger mail ballots and 400 pre-merger PPP ballots), despite not having any additional manpower to count them. That's why they had to begin counting at 9 AM instead of 7 PM, using both my local party and the local GOP's volunteers as resources to do so. Each candidate/contest choice on every ballot has to be verified and agreed upon by at least two separate individuals in order to be recorded.

[Adam Griffin]

70k votes in thus far (will be at least another 30-40k), with Clayton over-represented. Scott's at or below 46% right now in every county but Clayton (where he has 55%). Lots of mail ballots to be counted still and whether there are any real biases between ED/AIP/ABM may change the math

And there certainly was! It's like every rebellious vote got counted last night and all that was left to count today were incumbency/name rec ballots. Not surprising given mail voters are going to be older; same situation we saw with Sanders %s in most counties before and after mail ballots started being counted last night. However, it was a big difference in GA-13.

[Adam Griffin]

So just glancing around - for the Democratic primary alone - it appears there are at least 75,000 votes outstanding in Fulton/Dekalb combined, and potentially 50,000 or more in Gwinnett/Cobb.

On top of that, there are still plenty of counties where mail ballots are obviously not (fully) counted. Forsyth is one example: there should be no fewer than 10,000 D ballots there (maybe closer to 15-20k), yet there are only around 6,000 D presently.

Floyd is another example: only around 1,500 D presently, when it will likely end up in the 4k range.

Several thousand D ballots at minimum haven't been counted in Bibb based on its turnout relative to Muscogee and Richmond.