Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

Damn, is any recent election this D skewing for early ballots?

No, but there hasn't really been an opportunity: 2004 was the last cycle where these conditions (no contested GOP primary) existed, and Democrats were collapsing statewide hard by then. Also, mail voting was much less common then - I'm not even sure if no-excuse mail voting was available in '04?

Personally, I'm still not impressed with these numbers (and likely won't be until/unless the D share is >70%). If Democrats can't get at least 2 people to show up in a contested presidential primary for every 1 person who shows up to solely rubberstamp Trump in his coronation, then we've likely got big problems.


As of 2/26, 36,382 ballots have been requested for the March 24th presidential primary (11,730 have been returned). Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

20698   56.89% Democratic
14729    40.48% Republican
525        1.44% Non-Partisan
430        1.19% Unknown

60.9% of ballot requests received yesterday were Democratic; 35.7% Republican.

BTW: the "Unknown" category is mostly ballots that have either been rejected or are currently not being issued due to a problem with the application (the overwhelming majority of these are people who didn't check which party's primary ballot they wanted on the application).

[Adam Griffin]

As of today (2/27), 38,014 ballots have been requested for the March 24th presidential primary (12,885 have been returned). Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

21764   57.25% Democratic
15233    40.07% Republican
545        1.43% Non-Partisan
472        1.25% Unknown

65.3% of ballot requests received today were Democratic; 30.9% Republican.

[Adam Griffin]

As of today (2/28), 39,410 ballots have been requested for the March 24th presidential primary (14,199 have been returned). Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

22599   57.34% Democratic
15763    40.00% Republican
563        1.43% Non-Partisan
485        1.23% Unknown

59.8% of ballot requests received today were Democratic; 38.0% Republican. Looks like the GOP will cling to the 40% threshold for another day or two.

Early in-person voting begins Monday.

[Adam Griffin]

Not much of a change (since it's Saturday; GOP drops below 40 for the first time, though).

As of today (2/29), 39,648 ballots have been requested for the March 24th presidential primary (14,387 have been returned). Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

22741   57.36% Democratic
15849   39.97% Republican
570        1.44% Non-Partisan
488        1.23% Unknown

[Adam Griffin]

First day of early in-person voting today: 20,002 ballots were cast (in-person) or requested (by mail) today.

As of today (3/2), 59,650 ballots have been cast or requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

35123   58.88% Democratic
23332    39.11% Republican
680        1.14% Non-Partisan
512        0.86% Unknown

61.9% of ballots cast or requested today were Democratic; 37.4% were Republican.

[Adam Griffin]

30,989 ballots were cast (in-person) or requested (by mail) yesterday.

As of yesterday (3/3), 90,639 ballots have been cast or requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

55831   61.60% Democratic
33436    36.89% Republican
836        0.92% Non-Partisan
536        0.59% Unknown

66.8% of ballots cast or requested yesterday were Democratic; 32.6% were Republican.

[Adam Griffin]

Updates for the past 2 days, separated since I didn't post yesterday:
19,584 ballots were cast (in-person) or requested (by mail) on 3/4.

As of 3/4, 110,223 ballots have been cast or requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

68902   62.51% Democratic
39828    36.13% Republican
914        0.83% Non-Partisan
579        0.53% Unknown

66.7% of ballots cast or requested on 3/4 were Democratic; 32.6% were Republican.
15,998 ballots were cast (in-person) or requested (by mail) on 3/5.

As of 3/5, 126,221 ballots have been cast or requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

79684   63.13% Democratic
44927    35.59% Republican
991        0.79% Non-Partisan
619        0.49% Unknown

67.4% of ballots cast or requested on 3/5 were Democratic; 31.9% were Republican.

[Adam Griffin]

Is that good early vote turnout?

Democratic primary turnout is already 50% of what it was throughout the entire early voting period 4 years ago (160,832); GOP turnout is around 17% (267,413). We still have 12 days of in-person early voting to go.

Hard to say for sure; not a lot of comparison points. It's a one-sided affair this time, there is definitely increased turnout nationally relative to 4 years ago that sort of minimizes anything specifically GA-related affecting it and the last time Democrats were the only party with a competitive primary was in 2004 (before early voting was really even a thing in GA). There's also the fact that early voting just tends to become more popular with each passing cycle.

It's good, but not necessarily indicative of anything, I guess. For Democrats specifically and as I said on the previous page, Democrats want to be in the 67-70% range among the final primary electorate for it to not be a bad sign (or a good sign, perhaps) for November. Democrats are basically hitting that figure each day now that in-person voting has begun. Anything lower and it's basically a sign that the Republican base is fired up more so than the Democratic base.

[Adam Griffin]

24,237 ballots were cast (in-person) or requested (by mail) on 3/6.

As of 3/6, 150,458 ballots have been cast or requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

96213   63.95% Democratic
52533    34.91% Republican
1076        0.72% Non-Partisan
636        0.42% Unknown

68.2% of ballots cast or requested on 3/6 were Democratic; 31.4% were Republican.

[Adam Griffin]

31,332 ballots were cast (in-person) or requested (by mail) between 3/7 & 3/9.

As of 3/9, 181,790 ballots have been cast or requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

119487   65.73% Democratic
60423      33.24% Republican
1208        0.66% Non-Partisan
672          0.37% Unknown

74.3% of ballots cast or requested between 3/7 & 3/9 were Democratic; 25.2% were Republican.

[Adam Griffin]

I'll probably make another one of these once early voting ends (or maybe once all voters have voted; it's a good hour of work per iteration), but here's a map showing which party has produced more votes in the primary thus far.

Lots of interesting (if not entirely relevant) trends to note. Gotta love that Democratic geographic contiguity from SW GA to ATL to the coast; almost resembles an old Dixiecrat map (sans the suburban clusters).


2016 General Vs 2020 Presidential Primary (EV; as of 3/9)
    

Observations to follow later tonight.

[Adam Griffin]

24,576 ballots were cast (in-person) or requested (by mail) on 3/10.

As of 3/10, 206,366 ballots have been cast or requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

137038   66.41% Democratic
67278      32.60% Republican
1302        0.63% Non-Partisan
748          0.36% Unknown

71.4% of ballots cast or requested on 3/10 were Democratic; 27.9% were Republican.

[Adam Griffin]

25,299 ballots were cast (in-person) or requested (by mail) on 3/11.

As of 3/11, 231,665 ballots have been cast or requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

155076   66.94% Democratic
74440      32.13% Republican
1379        0.60% Non-Partisan
770          0.33% Unknown

71.3% of ballots cast or requested on 3/11 were Democratic; 28.3% were Republican.

[Adam Griffin]

As of March 1, Georgia voter registration is at a new high. Of the estimated 7,493,000 adult citizens in the state*, 6,920,873 are now registered (92.4%).

This number will likely exceed 95% by the November general election.

*Extrapolated based on my own estimates, using the 2018 CVAP figure of 7,303,056 as a baseline

[Adam Griffin]

22,390 ballots were cast (in-person) or requested (by mail) on 3/12.

As of 3/12, 254,055 ballots have been cast or requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

171226   67.40% Democratic
80471      31.67% Republican
1436        0.57% Non-Partisan
922          0.36% Unknown

72.1% of ballots cast or requested on 3/12 were Democratic; 26.9% were Republican.

[Adam Griffin]

25,363 ballots were cast (in-person) or requested (by mail) on 3/13.

As of 3/13, 279,418 ballots have been cast or requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

190446   68.16% Democratic
86504      30.96% Republican
1516        0.54% Non-Partisan
952          0.34% Unknown

75.8% of ballots cast or requested on 3/13 were Democratic; 23.8% were Republican.

[Adam Griffin]

25,046 ballots were cast (in-person) or requested (by mail) on 3/14.

As of 3/14, 304,464 ballots have been cast or requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

210876   69.26% Democratic
91042      29.90% Republican
1598        0.53% Non-Partisan
948          0.31% Unknown

81.6% of ballots cast or requested on 3/14 were Democratic; 18.1% were Republican.

[Adam Griffin]

Is the data for each county available?

Yes: https://elections.sos.ga.gov/Elections/voterabsenteefile.do

You'll need the county list PDF at the bottom of the page to determine which spreadsheet in the zip file corresponds with each county, but each day's update includes the statewide file and individual files for each county.

[Adam Griffin]

There's no inherent reason (especially with the legislature still in session to approve funding) that they can't mail ballots to all voters for this primary.

With that being said, to do so on a more permanent basis, GA would either need to abolish the concept of runoffs or move to RCV to make it cost-effective. Just as an example, GA was scheduled to have seven elections this year:

• presidential primary & special elections (March 24)
• special election runoff (April 21)
• state/local primary (May 19)
• state/local primary runoff (July 21)
• general election (November 3)
• general election runoff for state/local races (December 1)
• general election runoff for federal races (January 5, 2021)

Even in a non-presidential year, you're still looking at 6-7 elections per cycle (including special elections & depending on whether there's a Senate race), which is untenable. RCV would consolidate this to 3 elections per cycle.

[Adam Griffin]

2,240 ballots were cast (in-person) or requested (by mail) on 3/15 & 3/16.

As of 3/16, 306,704 ballots have been cast or requested for the March 24th May 19th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

212488   69.28% Democratic
91623      29.87% Republican
1625        0.53% Non-Partisan
968          0.32% Unknown

72.0% of ballots cast or requested on 3/15 & 3/16 were Democratic; 25.9% were Republican.

[Adam Griffin]

Given the primary has been "cancelled" in its original incarnation and merged, we're not likely to get a true snapshot of what the final presidential composition would look like (since the May primary will potentially muddy the waters; I assume there will be two separate ballots, but I'm not sure if voters will still be allowed to pull a D presidential primary ballot and a R local/state ballot per usual, etc).

As such and for now, this is about as good of a final figure as we can expect. Even if people can "split-ticket" in May between the two ballots, there'll be a lot more people who probably choose not to do so who would have on 2 separate election dates, which will give the GOP a relative advantage over what would've transpired throughout the final week of early voting and Election Day voting on March 24.

So I've looked at the outstanding mail ballots - of which there are 30,321. A bigger number than I expected, frankly. Anyway, here is their composition:

20433   67.38% Democratic
8315      27.42% Republican
606        2.00% Non-Partisan
968        3.20% Unknown

Obviously all of the unknown ballots from the daily updates are unreturned, given these are application errors and the like. The large number of non-partisan ballots in this batch isn't surprising either, given there's literally nothing on these ballots in most jurisdictions (only places with special elections will have any contests on them).

What is interesting is the lack of difference between D-R returned/cast ballots and unreturned mail ballots. Historically, a substantially larger percentage of Democrats don't return requested ballots, yet among all ballots requested and cast, there's a 39.4 point Democratic advantage; among unreturned, it's 40.0 points. Presumably this can be explained by the fact that there's no real competitive GOP presidential primary, but still neat to see.

[Adam Griffin]

So this is garbage, y'all.

Apparently the state is forcing the use of a "combo ballot" for this primary. That means that you will not have the option of voting in the Democratic presidential primary and the GOP state/local primary (or vice-versa) if you haven't already voted: whichever party you pick is the party you get for both primaries (which are one and the same now for this election). Obviously those who have already voted for President will still have the option of picking a different party's ballot that only includes the state/local contests, but this is frustrating.

In counties like mine, you have like 100% of Republicans and 30% of Democrats voting in GOP state/local primaries; the only sure-fire way to identify even some of them is by their presidential primary preferences. This is the case in a lot of counties (especially those where 98% of the population isn't black or white, and where you can't just say "black = D" and "white = R" 90-95% of the time). On one hand, this could force those Democrats to pull a Democratic primary ballot for the presidential primary part and improve our ability to identify them. On the other, given it'll be May when we vote, they may just decide to opt to weigh in on their de-facto general elections in the GOP primary per usual.

[Adam Griffin]

SW Georgia is eaten up with coronavirus: 1 in 6 cases (500 out of 3000) and 1 in 3 deaths (32 out of 102) statewide are there, with 339 cases & 26 deaths in Sumter, Lee and Dougherty alone.

To put it in perspective, these three counties have 150,000 people combined, yet Dekalb County (750,000) has fewer cases (294).

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

212488   69.28% Democratic
91623      29.87% Republican
1625        0.53% Non-Partisan
968          0.32% Unknown

RIP Democrats having any advantage in the primary:

As of 4/21, 653,211 ballots have been cast or requested for the June presidential primary. This appears to exclude the ~350,000 ballots cast prior to the cancellation/merger of the March presidential & May state primaries, which means some/many of these individuals will be duplicates (i.e. individuals who voted in the pres primary before the merger will get to vote again separately for the state contests). As one example, I am on the new state list for my June ballot, but not for my March ballot. Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

364464   55.80% Republican
268538    41.11% Democratic
19272      2.95% Non-Partisan
937          0.14% Unknown