Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

DEM PPP: 1,059,654 (53.13%)
GOP PPP: 934,948 (46.87%)
TOTAL: 1,994,602

DEM SEN: 1,156,568 (54.16%)
GOP SEN: 978,761 (45.84%)
TOTAL: 2,135,329

PPP/SEN gap is still growing: grew by another 8k since 6/16: now at 140,727.

Democrats now lead by over 6 points in the PPP total and over 8 points in the SEN total.

[Adam Griffin]

EDIT: SCROLL DOWN A COUPLE OF POSTS FOR CURRENT COMBINED PPP-ONLY + PPP/SEN RESULTS

DEM PPP: 1,066,056 (53.21%)
GOP PPP: 937,516 (46.79%)
TOTAL: 2,003,572

DEM SEN: 1,164,224 (54.25%)
GOP SEN: 981,850 (45.75%)
TOTAL: 2,146,074

PPP/SEN gap is still growing: grew by another 1.5k since 6/19: now at 142,502. I guess SoS doesn't care about those PPP-only ballots...

[Adam Griffin]

One critique about Miles' tweet: just to tell you how far things have progressed demographically, "Milton" isn't even the whitest segment of Fulton anymore. That distinction goes to the Sandy Springs area and places due south of it (including the northern segment of ATL proper). Milton is still the "least black" meaningfully large area of Fulton, though - but even there, it's a negligible difference. Milton simply has more Asian and Latino residents (whether measured by population or by CVAP), making it more non-white by the broader (arguably non-Southron) definition.

The 400 corridor in Milton has attracted a lot of lower-income, multi-family housing in a way that North (Non-Milton) Fulton has not due to its richer roots, which makes the former prime real estate for lower-income non-white (mostly non-black) migration. There have also been a lot of wealthy Asians settling in the Johns Creek area.

[Adam Griffin]

Turns out there's a separate page for March ballots
https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/102879/web.254232/#/summary

Thanks!

Updating these numbers now with the counted PPP-only ballots:

DEM PPP: 1,234,946 (54.83%)
GOP PPP: 1,017,303 (45.17%)
TOTAL: 2,252,249

DEM SEN: 1,164,224 (54.25%)
GOP SEN: 981,850 (45.75%)
TOTAL: 2,146,074

Democrats are gonna hit a double-digit lead in the PPP two-way...


Also, in case anybody was curious about the presidential primary totals by candidate:

PPP/SEN Ballots:
Biden: 84.88%
Sanders: 9.34%

PPP-Only Ballots:
Biden: 74.81%
Sanders: 17.73%

Total Ballots:
Biden: 83.50%
Sanders: 10.48%

[Adam Griffin]

DEM PPP: 1,248,747 (55.05%)
GOP PPP: 1,019,502 (44.95%)
TOTAL: 2,268,249

DEM SEN: 1,179,198 (54.50%)
GOP SEN: 984,274 (45.50%)
TOTAL: 2,163,472

18k new votes since yesterday in the PPP contest (none of which appear to be PPP-only); approximately 16k were Democratic. Democrats officially cross the 10-point mark in PPP lead.

[Adam Griffin]

DEM PPP: 1,264,201 (54.54%)
GOP PPP: 1,053,532 (45.46%)
TOTAL: 2,317,733

DEM SEN: 1,191,207 (53.88%)
GOP SEN: 1,019,830 (46.12%)
TOTAL: 2,211,037

Nearly 50k new votes across both contests (49484 in PPP, 47565 in SEN). This drop was heavily-GOP (69% R in PPP, 75% R in SEN): enough to erase the double-digit DEM lead in PPP and reduce both contests' margins by roughly 1 percentage point.

[Adam Griffin]

Post-correction, PPP leads returns almost to a 10-point lead.

DEM PPP: 1,258,331 (54.97%)
GOP PPP: 1,030,892 (45.03%)
TOTAL: 2,289,223

DEM SEN: 1,181,972 (54.37%)
GOP SEN: 992,109 (45.63%)
TOTAL: 2,174,081

[Adam Griffin]

Post-correction, PPP leads returns almost to a 10-point lead.

DEM PPP: 1,258,331 (54.97%)
GOP PPP: 1,030,892 (45.03%)
TOTAL: 2,289,223

DEM SEN: 1,181,972 (54.37%)
GOP SEN: 992,109 (45.63%)
TOTAL: 2,174,081

I wonder what the map looks like for this.

I mapped out the results as of June 16th, when the SEN margin was around 6 points (as of last update, it was 8.7 points). Based on recollection of margins then, I doubt many counties (if any) have flipped in absolute terms: maybe somewhere like Telfair or Meriwether, but that's more or less it. Margin thresholds could have changed in a variety of counties sans flipping, though - most of what we've seen since then (at least in the SEN primary) has come from the D ATL metro. Obviously I didn't map the PPP due to all of the mail ballots still being unaccounted for back then.

[Adam Griffin]

Assuming this is the remainder of Dekalb that dumped (nearly 95% of the 32k new PPP ballots were D). PPP lead easily clears double digits once again.

DEM PPP: 1,287,920 (55.48%)
GOP PPP: 1,033,308 (44.52%)
TOTAL: 2,321,228

DEM SEN: 1,186,661 (54.45%)
GOP SEN: 992,551 (45.55%)
TOTAL: 2,179,212

[Adam Griffin]

RIP Blue Telfair

My composition map was made for the SEN contest at roughly 53-47 D; his PPP map is around 53-47 as well (obviously made later), but the only absolute flip difference I see between the 2 is our fallen hero mentioned above.

[Adam Griffin]

Yikes, at Houston County.

When I did my SEN map, it was 52-48 R then: it might have tightened even more. In fact, I'm going to check it out...

[Adam Griffin]

   

BREAKING NEWS: HOUSTON COUNTY HAS FLIPPED IN THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY

VOTE TYPE	DEM	GOP
PPP-ONLY	2410	1153
PPP/SEN	13088	14177
TOTAL	15498	15330
PCT	50.27%	49.73%

[Adam Griffin]

Redid the map using PPP results only (results are as of 8:00 am on 6/27). Compared to the SEN map from 11 days ago (before PPP-only ballots were posted/counted), here are the following changes:

D-to-R:
Telfair

R-to-D:
Houston
Early
Lowndes

County-by-County Results (as of 6/27 AM)

[Adam Griffin]

I saw some mention prior of this map broadly-speaking, but essentially: it's a Democratic-optimistic combination of the past, present and future.

Past being various Black Belt counties and auxiliary Black Belt counties (like Jenkins, Screven, Wilkes, Decatur) that haven't voted D since the early 2000s in prominent statewide races, the relative present (counties that either Obama and/or Clinton won) and future being counties that might be winnable sometime later this decade (Fayette and Houston, with distant contenders like Columbia and even Coweta - the latter of which was a mere 62% R in the primary; quite skeptical about Lowndes personally).

[Adam Griffin]

After some facetious commentary elsewhere, I decided to look at the trajectory of a 7-county area that's essentially the North ATL suburbs/exurbs. This area was 942k people in 2010 (9.7% of state) and 1.06m in 2018 (10.3% of state). Georgia would have voted both for Clinton (narrow plurality) and Abrams (clear majority) without this area.

Mixed feelings here. On one hand, this has been ground zero for GOP dominance in the state for the past 20 years, so seeing it as the most compact and smallest (geographically and population-wise) area still wrecking statewide Democratic fortunes is unsurprising (and a bit gratifying, given my disdain for suburbrons and exurbrons). On the other hand, I really expected more movement here between 2016 and 2018; Trump and Kemp basically got the same share of voters, with Abrams (mathematically) absorbing nearly all of the '16 third-party voters who backed a major party candidate in '18.

[Adam Griffin]

No new PPP/SEN primary vote updates since last Friday, so I'm assuming all votes are now counted.

[Adam Griffin]

What's the deadline for people to withdraw their name from appearing on the ballot in the Jungle Primary?

Not sure if the law is applied differently for federal candidates than state candidates, but in the case of the latter, OCGA 21-2-134 (specifically Section 2) essentially says that a candidate can withdraw at any time; if they withdraw prior to the printing of paper ballots/dissemination of digital ballots, then their name will not appear, but if they withdraw after ballots have been printed, it is at the discretion of the SoS, county or state to reissue ballots or not (or in the case of SoS, order reprinting of ballots).

In recent years, the only paper ballots were mail (and provisional) ballots and those were generally finalized approximately two months before Election Day (handled by each county; exact dates obviously varied). Given we now have a hybrid system where all voters will use paper ballots either via mail or to be scanned at precincts, it's honestly a bigger concern. I doubt most counties will completely finalize (as in printing) any paper/mail ballots prior to September 1.

[Adam Griffin]

Not to mention that a 10-point gain (going from R+56 to R+46) in six years is definitely significant, especially when it’s more than the margin needed to flip the state under uniform swing from 2012 -> 2018.

I mean...it was 7 statewide over the same time period: not exactly impressive given the rate of demographic turnover in these areas matches or exceeds the state depending on the exact county (and that's before getting into shifts in educational & income splits, which in these areas should produce above-average trends by themselves).


As implied, the broader point was how some want to talk about places like Forsyth and Cherokee as if they're the Democratic Party's future, and so many want to deride the rurals. While narrowed margins in such places can and will make statewide victory possible mathematically, kissing the asses of people in these kinds of places is ludicrous.

Just one more example to illustrate how horrible these places are: deduct every single Clinton county from the equation, and divide the rest into two groups (the 7 outlined above, and literally everything else - which is mostly rural territory). Even in 2018, the north ATL exurbs were still more pro-Kemp than the rest of the non-Democratic state.

Angsty GOP North ATL Exurbs:
Kemp: 72.20%
Abrams: 26.51%

Georgia's Rubes and Malcontents:
Kemp: 70.45%
Abrams: 28.72%

And for what it's worth, the margin difference in 2016 between the 2 groups was 8 points, while it was 4 points in 2018. From a generic rube's perspective (where negative demographic shifts are occurring geographically-speaking), literally making them vote for a loud and proud black female who talked constantly about guns and Confederate flags could only buy the exurbs 4 points of relative improvement over them - which I'd wager all (and then some, possibly) came from positive demographic turnover occurring in those exurbs. Anyway, it's just food for thought before people start falling in love with Forsyth or whatever.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/jasonesteves/status/1284619319842938880

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/jasonesteves/status/1284619319842938880

All GA posters living in GA-5 should apply.

Less than 48 hours to pick who will hold the seat for the next few decades!

[Adam Griffin]

Will Abrams go for it?

I would love to see it. She could essentially serve as a placeholder for 2 years before running for Gov, giving the district a chance to actually have a primary/pick a candidate of their choosing in 2022 before the seat is locked up for the next 20-40 years. Without a placeholder candidate being selected, whomever gets chosen on Monday will hold this seat for as long as they want.

[Adam Griffin]

I don't know if she will, but if Nikema Williams applies, don't be surprised if she is selected (she almost certainly lives in GA-5?). DPG Chair, State Senator and married to a man who was a congressional aide and deputy campaign manager for Lewis. Given how party selections in general tend to go, she checks all the boxes.

[Adam Griffin]

Also, it appears as if counties will be allowed to start opening absentee ballots two weeks before election day, instead of the one week currently allowed. This will not change the tabulation process, which cannot start until after polls close on Election Day itself.

I'm confused. Opening the ballots to do what? If they can't tabulate votes, what are they doing with them?

I assume tabulation in this case means publishing vote totals or reporting them to SoS via their system prior to 7 PM on Election Day. They'll still likely have a running tally of counts for each race after each day's counting internally, though.

Personally, I'm more interested in how the concept of multi-day "sequestration" is going to work: in most counties (including my own, at least prior to the 2020 primary), a county's mail ballots could be counted in one day. Election workers and members from both parties would be sequestered in a room for the opening of mail ballots, with at least 2 people verifying the choices of each individual ballot. Nobody got to leave or use communications devices until all ballots were counted. I'm sure this isn't how it's worked in places like Fulton and Gwinnett where mail counting has taken days in most recent elections, but I do want to know how each day's counts are secured and how ballots are going to be handled by each county.

[Adam Griffin]

Do we have access to how many ballots have been requested for November and the racial make up of said group?

The SoS doesn't have a spreadsheet up yet for ballots requested. I also checked within VAN and it appears the only early vote/ballot request data they have is for the Aug 11 primary and prior, so I'm assuming this data isn't being reported at all yet by SoS.

Counties have had rather broader latitude with when they begin mailing ballots, but most have done so in September (my county has generally started around 9/20). Given the two week boost for counties to start counting mail ballots, they may very well start mailing earlier than usual. There should be a public spreadsheet available here before any of this begins, but it won't have racial data in it. That data as far as I know is only available by corroborating ballot requests with VAN or a comparable voter file management solution, or if SoS reports those statewide figures themselves (I don't imagine SoS releasing county-by-county race breakdowns pre-election).

[Adam Griffin]

A few years back, I made this similar graph which at the time had projections for 2016-2024. Those projections were quite optimistic (in large part because there was heavy weight on the Obama years in terms of demographic shifts, and also because black voters specifically were better categorized as black by SoS prior to 2015 or so).

Nevertheless, I have updated and revised, adding the most recent two elections and including the 2017 1-Year ACS & 2019 Census as well.

For all previous elections/years, Census data and race breakdowns via SoS are used. Much like the SoS pivoted from an all-encompassing "Other" category in 2004 that made tracking specific non-white, non-black groups difficult until then, new registrants (i.e. disproportionately non-white registrants) for the past 5 years or so have been disproportionately categorized as "other" or "unknown". This plays a major role in why the black share of the electorate is smaller in 2016 & 2018 than in 2012 & 2014 (though not 100% of the cause) and why "other" jumps over the same period. This is also why the 2020-24 projections may seem "gentler" than some might expect.

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