Solidly Republican suburbs

[mileslunn]

Historically GOP did well in suburbs but recently strong swing against.  Wondering for metropolitan areas over 1 million, what are suburban areas where GOP still routinely gets over 60%.  Trump still got in low 50s in many, but unlike Bush or even Romney, areas he got over 60% were far and few.  Below is a list of few I could think of

- Davis County, Utah

- Southern part of Salt Lake County

- Montgomery County, Texas (northern suburbs of Houston)

- Edge suburbs of Dallas metro area (It seems most suburbs on rural/urban fringe Trump still getting over 60% but not in majority like Bush did or whole bunch like in case of Romney)

- Jefferson County, Missouri

- Western Hamilton County, Ohio and Collar counties around Cincinnati

- Southern half of Staten Island

-  Gaston & Union Counties in North Carolina

- Outerlying Atlanta suburban counties (Cherokee, Hall, and Forsyth, but trending left like rest of metro area)

-  Western part of Miami-Dade (large Cuban community although ironically Clinton won here but big swing to Trump in 2020).

[Bismarck]

Hendricks County (West) and Johnson County (South) suburbs of Indianapolis.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump got over 60% in every suburban Nashville County except Rutherford, where he got 57%.  Republicans held up very well in all of them in 2022 as well.  Notably, Rutherford was back in the 60s, and Republicans nearly cracked 70% in Williamson in 2022.

[ottermax]

This used to be quintessential Western America, but I think the only significant suburbs with these margins in the West are now in Utah and Idaho - even Phoenix's suburbs aren't reaching these margins.

Shocking how Southern California, Sacramento, Phoenix, Albuquerque, and Denver's suburbs have shifted left so much.

[Dr. MB]

pretty much any white majority suburb in the deep South - look around Memphis, Jackson, MI, New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Birmingham.

[mileslunn]

pretty much any white majority suburb in the deep South - look around Memphis, Jackson, MI, New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Birmingham.

True although only Memphis has a metro area over a million.  You see more such suburbs in smaller urban areas than larger.  But true in deep south that is generally case in heavily white suburbs although not in Virginia or Florida but Virginia is sort of a transition from Northeast to South while Florida has lots of northern transplants.  True heavily white suburbs in Florida did go mostly for Trump, but he generally got in 50s there, not over 60%.

[JGibson]

Jefferson County, Missouri used to be a lot swingier, but since the 2010s (and especially after Ferguson), the county went hard red.

St. Charles County, Missouri has long been a GOP bastion.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tbf I would argue some of them listed by OP are exurbs.

Suprised no one has mentioned Tampa or Jacksonville, which have some pretty red suburbs with the help of retirees.

Generally, I think the most likely places to still find these safe R suburbs are in places with high racial polarization, such as the southeastern US

[Roll Roons]

Washington County (WI) though it’s more exurban than suburban. Waukesha and Ozaukee are also still fairly red, even if Rs don’t get quite the huge margins that they did pre-Trump.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Lexington County, SC & The area around Oklahoma City are pretty Republican

[mileslunn]

Lexington County, SC & The area around Oklahoma City are pretty Republican

Absolutely although Columbia, SC is not a metro area over a million thus why I didn't include it.  Oklahoma City is right around million mark.  If you just check urban area according to US census it is slightly under but take statistical metro slightly over so while I counted it as under a million, if you do include it then it is definitely one.

[mileslunn]

Jefferson County, Missouri used to be a lot swingier, but since the 2010s (and especially after Ferguson), the county went hard red.

St. Charles County, Missouri has long been a GOP bastion.

I believe it is a white working class and sort of like Racine & Kenosha counties in Wisconsin, Macomb County, Michigan, and Lake County, Ohio.  True Trump only got in 50s in those, but Obama won those outright and also being northern states you don't have quite as large a white Evangelical population as you would in Jefferson County, Missouri.  But yeah prior to 2016, it was usually very close whether it went GOP or Democrat.

St. Charles County, Trump actually got under 60% but still won easily but did trend slightly against GOP although a long ways from turning blue.  Its not like Johnson County, Kansas where a decade ago GOP got around 60%, but now its turned blue.

Tbf I would argue some of them listed by OP are exurbs.

Suprised no one has mentioned Tampa or Jacksonville, which have some pretty red suburbs with the help of retirees.

Generally, I think the most likely places to still find these safe R suburbs are in places with high racial polarization, such as the southeastern US

Tampa only if you count the northern counties like Citrus, Hernando and Pasco (Trump got 59% there but close enough) and while its built up continuously from Tampa, I believe US census counts them as separate metro areas.  In Hillsborough and Pinellas counties, Trump won many suburbs, especially the over 90% ones, but almost none did he crack the 60% mark.  55/45 GOP/Dem split seemed to be the norm in most of Pinellas County and Biden only narrowly won it due to winning by 25 points in St. Petersburg.  In fact in much of Southern Florida, the heavily white with large senior population was pretty consistently GOP in 50s, Dems in 40s.

Jacksonville is harder to say as yes neighboring counties GOP gets over 60% but most are more exurban and have large rural portion than suburbs.  Only areas that border Jacksonville are suburban and I imagine GOP wins those but probably closer than the county as a whole. 

[Tekken_Guy]

-Shelby County and the Hoover area of Jefferson County, AL
-Baldwin County, AL
-The Mat-Su area of Alaska
-Pinal County, AZ
-Faulkner and Saline Counties, AR
-Benton County, AR
-St John's and Nassau counties, FL
-Polk and Pasco Counties, FL
-Volusia and Brevard Counties, FL
-Southwest Florida
-The Atlanta Exurbs (Forsyth, Cherokee, Paulding, Hall)
-Columbia County, GA
-Canyon County, ID
-The Indianapolis collar counties
-The Metairie area of Jefferson Parish, LA, and St. Tammany Parish
-White areas of Baton Rouge, and Livingston Parish
-Ottawa County, MI
-Livingston County, MI
-The Mississippi Gulf Coast
-Rankin and Madison Counties, MS
-DeSoto County, MS
-Western St. Louis County, MO
-St. Charles and Jefferson Counties, MO
-The Charlotte Collar counties
-Ocean County, NJ
-Sussex and Warren Counties, NJ
-The Smithtown area of Suffolk County, NY
-The Long Island South Shore
-Staten Island
-The Charlotte and Piedmont Triad collar counties
-Johnston County, NC
-Brunswick County, NC
-The Cincinnati collar counties, both the OH and KY side
-Edmond, OK
-Cleveland and Canadian Counties, OK
-Westmoreland, Washington, and Butler Counties, PA
-Berkeley and Dorchester Counties, SC
-Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
-Lexington County, SC
-The Collierville area of Shelby County, TN
-The Nashville collar counties
-Comal County, TX
-Northwest Harris County, TX
-The Houston village cities
-The Dallas Park Cities
-Northeast Tarrant County, TX
-Montgomery County, TX
-Brazoria County, TX
-The Watsach Front other than SLC itself
-Hanover County, VA
-Waukesha County, WI

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Are there any upscale educated suburbs of major metros left that still vote heavily GOP?

[mileslunn]

-Shelby County and the Hoover area of Jefferson County, AL
-Baldwin County, AL
-The Mat-Su area of Alaska
-Pinal County, AZ
-Faulkner and Saline Counties, AR
-Benton County, AR
-St John's and Nassau counties, FL
-Polk and Pasco Counties, FL
-Volusia and Brevard Counties, FL
-Southwest Florida
-The Atlanta Exurbs (Forsyth, Cherokee, Paulding, Hall)
-Columbia County, GA
-Canyon County, ID
-The Indianapolis collar counties
-The Metairie area of Jefferson Parish, LA, and St. Tammany Parish
-White areas of Baton Rouge, and Livingston Parish
-Ottawa County, MI
-Livingston County, MI
-The Mississippi Gulf Coast
-Rankin and Madison Counties, MS
-DeSoto County, MS
-Western St. Louis County, MO
-St. Charles and Jefferson Counties, MO
-The Charlotte Collar counties
-Ocean County, NJ
-Sussex and Warren Counties, NJ
-The Smithtown area of Suffolk County, NY
-The Long Island South Shore
-Staten Island
-The Charlotte and Piedmont Triad collar counties
-Johnston County, NC
-Brunswick County, NC
-The Cincinnati collar counties, both the OH and KY side
-Edmond, OK
-Cleveland and Canadian Counties, OK
-Westmoreland, Washington, and Butler Counties, PA
-Berkeley and Dorchester Counties, SC
-Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
-Lexington County, SC
-The Collierville area of Shelby County, TN
-The Nashville collar counties
-Comal County, TX
-Northwest Harris County, TX
-The Houston village cities
-The Dallas Park Cities
-Northeast Tarrant County, TX
-Montgomery County, TX
-Brazoria County, TX
-The Watsach Front other than SLC itself
-Hanover County, VA
-Waukesha County, WI

All went GOP, but I said only over 60% which many listed were as Trump still got in 50s in a fair number even if not majority of suburbs, but over 60% list was much smaller unlike Romney or Bush which was sizeable or Reagan where it was most.  Also said only for metro areas over a million people as I have found for smaller cities seems much more mixed bag than larger.   Some have seen similar pattern but others have not.  In many ways small cities are key to winning or losing state.  It was small cities that helped Trump hold Texas, Ohio, and Florida as he lost the large metro areas but held the smaller cities in those three (rurals in those three not enough to win on alone unlike some states).  On other hand Biden gaining secondary cities in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania was big reason he flipped those.  Metro areas over a million while sizeable portion in latter two, it is still less than half unlike in say New York, Massachusetts, or Illinois where majority so can win on the largest metro area alone.  

Are there any upscale educated suburbs of major metros left that still vote heavily GOP?

I can think of two.

In Utah there is but heavily Mormon as some of the Salt Lake City suburbs are well off and quite educated and still went GOP, albeit the swing was just as big if not bigger than elsewhere.  Those same suburbs went around 80% for Romney, while Trump got only 60% so big swing still.  In case of Salt Lake City ones, religiosity not education was biggest driver with more secular ones going Democrat but more religious ones staying GOP.  Now in rest of US, people who are well off and educated tend to be less religious thus why you don't see this elsewhere. 

Other possibility is Houston as you have in northern suburbs many who are well off, college educated, but work in energy sector and since GOP thinks climate change is a hoax and opposes any restrictions on development in energy sector, no surprise.  Its same reason in Canada, Calgary despite its size, being well off and educated still votes Conservative.  In many ways I believe northern suburbs of Houston are much like south side of Calgary which is well off, educated, fairly white, but many work in energy sector. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tbf I would argue some of them listed by OP are exurbs.

Suprised no one has mentioned Tampa or Jacksonville, which have some pretty red suburbs with the help of retirees.

Generally, I think the most likely places to still find these safe R suburbs are in places with high racial polarization, such as the southeastern US

Tampa only if you count the northern counties like Citrus, Hernando and Pasco (Trump got 59% there but close enough) and while its built up continuously from Tampa, I believe US census counts them as separate metro areas.  In Hillsborough and Pinellas counties, Trump won many suburbs, especially the over 90% ones, but almost none did he crack the 60% mark.  55/45 GOP/Dem split seemed to be the norm in most of Pinellas County and Biden only narrowly won it due to winning by 25 points in St. Petersburg.  In fact in much of Southern Florida, the heavily white with large senior population was pretty consistently GOP in 50s, Dems in 40s.

Jacksonville is harder to say as yes neighboring counties GOP gets over 60% but most are more exurban and have large rural portion than suburbs.  Only areas that border Jacksonville are suburban and I imagine GOP wins those but probably closer than the county as a whole. 

Fair point on Tampa; there def are patches of Trump >60% suburban precincts scattered about, but only rlly small patches.

For Jacknsonville, I'd say the northeast corner of Clay County has some pretty red objective suburbs

[ProgressiveModerate]

Are there any upscale educated suburbs of major metros left that still vote heavily GOP?

I can think of two.

In Utah there is but heavily Mormon as some of the Salt Lake City suburbs are well off and quite educated and still went GOP, albeit the swing was just as big if not bigger than elsewhere.  Those same suburbs went around 80% for Romney, while Trump got only 60% so big swing still.  In case of Salt Lake City ones, religiosity not education was biggest driver with more secular ones going Democrat but more religious ones staying GOP.  Now in rest of US, people who are well off and educated tend to be less religious thus why you don't see this elsewhere. 

Other possibility is Houston as you have in northern suburbs many who are well off, college educated, but work in energy sector and since GOP thinks climate change is a hoax and opposes any restrictions on development in energy sector, no surprise.  Its same reason in Canada, Calgary despite its size, being well off and educated still votes Conservative.  In many ways I believe northern suburbs of Houston are much like south side of Calgary which is well off, educated, fairly white, but many work in energy sector. 

Tbh, I feel like Northern Houston suburb's wealth is a bit overrated:



In the black outlined area the median household income is 120k, which is decent, but nothing crazy impressive. Only a very small handful of precincts does the median household income crack 200k, and in many of those Trump didn't even get 60%.

Fort Bend County has a higher median household income than Montgomery County and the total outlined area.

[Continential]

In Western Pennsylvania, the suburbs of PA in Butler and the suburbs in Washington. In Allegheny, I'd say that West Deer, Pine Richland, North Fayette, and Jefferson Hills (the areas east are more like the rest of the areas in the Mononghala which are economically devastated than Jefferson Hills/"suburban areas")  are the "solidly Republican" suburbs although there are plenty of staunch Republicans in the more swingier suburbs.

[mileslunn]

In Western Pennsylvania, the suburbs of PA in Butler and the suburbs in Washington. In Allegheny, I'd say that West Deer, Pine Richland, North Fayette, and Jefferson Hills (the areas east are more like the rest of the areas in the Mononghala which are economically devastated than Jefferson Hills/"suburban areas")  are the "solidly Republican" suburbs although there are plenty of staunch Republicans in the more swingier suburbs.

Asides Beaver County, Trump did crack 60% in Washington, Westmoreland, and Butler counties however when looking at townships and towns themselves, he generally got in 50s in the more suburban ones near the border with Allegheny County.  Got over 60% due to bigger wins in the townships further out which tend to be more rural.

[Continential]

In Western Pennsylvania, the suburbs of PA in Butler and the suburbs in Washington. In Allegheny, I'd say that West Deer, Pine Richland, North Fayette, and Jefferson Hills (the areas east are more like the rest of the areas in the Mononghala which are economically devastated than Jefferson Hills/"suburban areas")  are the "solidly Republican" suburbs although there are plenty of staunch Republicans in the more swingier suburbs.

Asides Beaver County, Trump did crack 60% in Washington, Westmoreland, and Butler counties however when looking at townships and towns themselves, he generally got in 50s in the more suburban ones near the border with Allegheny County.  Got over 60% due to bigger wins in the townships further out which tend to be more rural.

Even in the precincts which border Allegheny County, the Republican precincts border on 60% Republican and you can tell that the suburbs are Republican - for instance you can tell that they are MAGA country even compared to suburbs that vote Republican in Allegheny County.