Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Gass3268]

This kind of thing just costs Enten and so on credibility. And it opens him up to ugly attacks like this:



It's war out there guys.

How? This is a legitimate way of looking at this. Multiple data journalists use this method.

Every time someone challenges you, you just try out another appeal to authority. You realize that's a logical fallacy, right? A 60-40 Trump district that went 55-45 GOP for Congress in 2016, and re-elects its Republican Congressman 55-45 this fall would be a "10 point D swing" by your data journalist model but that doesn't get the Democrats a pickup of the seat, which is all that matters.

Democrats need to make gains versus the previous Congressional vote if they are to pick up seats this fall. Arkansas Yankee at least looked at the numbers himself. Liberals need to stop idolizing these "data journalists", it's making us lazy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I mean that very table shows that a +6 swing is way less than past swings for special elections this cycle. Maybe there's something special about this race that explains Democratic underperformance, but that doesn't mean it should be dismissed out of hand.

Even 538's take is "could be bad news for Democrats, could be nothing".

[Arkansas Yankee]

This kind of thing just costs Enten and so on credibility. And it opens him up to ugly attacks like this:



It's war out there guys.

How? This is a legitimate way of looking at this. Multiple data journalists use this method.

Every time someone challenges you, you just try out another appeal to authority. You realize that's a logical fallacy, right? A 60-40 Trump district that went 55-45 GOP for Congress in 2016, and re-elects its Republican Congressman 55-45 this fall would be a "10 point D swing" by your data journalist model but that doesn't get the Democrats a pickup of the seat, which is all that matters.

Democrats need to make gains versus the previous Congressional vote if they are to pick up seats this fall. Arkansas Yankee at least looked at the numbers himself. Liberals need to stop idolizing these "data journalists", it's making us lazy.

Are you the leader of this pack?

[Arkansas Yankee]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why don’t you Google election swing.

You all have seemed to have developed your own definition of “swing”

[wesmoorenerd]

People are reading way too much into this, imo. People are acting like whatever the swing is is disastrous for Democrats. Why are people reading so far into a completely irrelevant special election that nobody thought was competitive? Turnout was absolutely abysmal so it's not like this is an accurate sample of how Democrats will be doing this November. Compare that to a race like AZ-08, which had good turnout and actual media attention. This is some Peak Atlas s*it right here, acting like the blue wave is dead because the Dems barely swung a low turnout, low media attention special in Texas.

[GeorgiaModerate]

People are reading way too much into this, imo. People are acting like whatever the swing is is disastrous for Democrats. Why are people reading so far into a completely irrelevant special election that nobody thought was competitive? Turnout was absolutely abysmal so it's not like this is an accurate sample of how Democrats will be doing this November. Compare that to a race like AZ-08, which had good turnout and actual media attention. This is some Peak Atlas s*it right here, acting like the blue wave is dead because the Dems barely swung a low turnout, low media attention special in Texas.

[Brittain33]

Fairly interesting that the Republican already won in the 1st round.

On the other hand, only 30.000 people voted and I guess the average CD has a population between 700.000-750.000 people, so this special election is totally meaningless.

But you have been telling me that Republicans have not been as motivated to vote as Democrats.  Here they were almost as motivated.  Now you try to change rules of analysis.

In this election on this day there was basically equal motivation.  Can you explain any reason for that than the ones I have listed?

Turnout in this election was absolutely abysmal. Very low compared to all the other races. Are you arguing that is how things will look this November, that Dem motivation has fallen into the basement across the country?

[Brittain33]

I had not read the post two posts above mine when I wrote “absolutely abysmal.”

[wesmoorenerd]

I had not read the post two posts above mine when I wrote “absolutely abysmal.”

Great minds think alike, ya know

[Antonio the Sixth]

There's no reason to throw out any data point entirely. This isn't Proof That Democrats Are Doomed or anything but it's still a data point that might tell us something about the partisan climate. There's always a good reason to dismiss any given special election's results, but the smart thing to do is to consider each of them as one noisy indicator.

[BudgieForce]

Is ArkansasYankee okay?

[Arkansas Yankee]

I never said this election indicated a disaster for Democrats.  I merely pointed out there was no 6 point swing. I also stated the voter enthusiasm was about the same for both parties..   I stated some reasons why this might be so.  There may be other reasons.

For now the election in Texas 27 stands alone.  It is a anomaly.  To be a harbinger it must be confirmed. 

I am late posting this, as I went to church.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I never said this election indicated a disaster for Democrats.  I merely pointed out there was no 6 point swing. I also stated the voter enthusiasm was about the same for both parties..   I stated some reasons why this might be so.  There may be other reasons.

For now the election in Texas 27 stands alone.  It is a anomaly.  To be a harbinger it must be confirmed.  

I am late posting this, as I went to church.

Those are fair statements.  As you said, it's just one data point among others.  There have been Congressional specials this cycle with some small swings, some large ones (all toward the Democrats).  There's naturally going to be some variation in results among the entire set of such elections.  The point is that the final margin in November is likely to be closer to the average of these results, rather than to an extreme on either end.

This is the list of results compiled by Harry Enten (who, incidentally, defines swing as the change from the district's partisan lean):



Source: https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1013418919363858433

(No, I don't think the final margin in November will be D+16.  As I've said elsewhere, I think this is a reasonable upper bound on the likely Democratic margin, with the GCB average as a reasonable lower bound. )

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I never said this election indicated a disaster for Democrats.  I merely pointed out there was no 6 point swing. I also stated the voter enthusiasm was about the same for both parties..   I stated some reasons why this might be so.  There may be other reasons.

For now the election in Texas 27 stands alone.  It is a anomaly.  To be a harbinger it must be confirmed.  

I am late posting this, as I went to church.

Those are fair statements.  As you said, it's just one data point among others.  There have been Congressional specials this cycle with some small swings, some large ones (all toward the Democrats).  There's naturally going to be some variation in results among the entire set of such elections.  The point is that the final margin in November is likely to be closer to the average of these results, rather than to an extreme on either end.

This is the list of results compiled by Harry Enten (who, incidentally, defines swing as the change from the district's partisan lean):



Source: https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1013418919363858433

(No, I don't think the final margin in November will be D+16.  As I've said elsewhere, I think this is a reasonable upper bound on the likely Democratic margin, with the GCB average as a reasonable lower bound. )

What if that partisan lean was redefined to be 50/50 as opposed to 75/25?

[UncleSam]

I never said this election indicated a disaster for Democrats.  I merely pointed out there was no 6 point swing. I also stated the voter enthusiasm was about the same for both parties..   I stated some reasons why this might be so.  There may be other reasons.

For now the election in Texas 27 stands alone.  It is a anomaly.  To be a harbinger it must be confirmed.  

I am late posting this, as I went to church.

Those are fair statements.  As you said, it's just one data point among others.  There have been Congressional specials this cycle with some small swings, some large ones (all toward the Democrats).  There's naturally going to be some variation in results among the entire set of such elections.  The point is that the final margin in November is likely to be closer to the average of these results, rather than to an extreme on either end.

This is the list of results compiled by Harry Enten (who, incidentally, defines swing as the change from the district's partisan lean):



Source: https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1013418919363858433

(No, I don't think the final margin in November will be D+16.  As I've said elsewhere, I think this is a reasonable upper bound on the likely Democratic margin, with the GCB average as a reasonable lower bound. )

Before 2006 the special election swing average was like D+18, and resulted in a D+7 house vote. The reason that special election swing is correlated to final swing but not particularly predictive of the final margin is that it is a great measure of enthusiasm, but neglects two key factors. First, that there is an incumbent running in most districts (which in and of itself is worth about five points) and second that more people show up to vote in a midterm than just the motivated portion of your base, thus diluting the influence of an enthusiasm gap (though obviously not erasing it in any way).

Based on the special election performance I think a prediction of D+16 is very silly, even as a ‘ceiling’. There’s no reason to think Democrats will even come close to that unless they have a great campaign cycle and the generic ballot lead opens up a lot wider. Unfortunately such a swing would be impossible to see in special election results because there is only one more prior to November.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I never said this election indicated a disaster for Democrats.  I merely pointed out there was no 6 point swing. I also stated the voter enthusiasm was about the same for both parties..   I stated some reasons why this might be so.  There may be other reasons.

For now the election in Texas 27 stands alone.  It is a anomaly.  To be a harbinger it must be confirmed.  

I am late posting this, as I went to church.

Those are fair statements.  As you said, it's just one data point among others.  There have been Congressional specials this cycle with some small swings, some large ones (all toward the Democrats).  There's naturally going to be some variation in results among the entire set of such elections.  The point is that the final margin in November is likely to be closer to the average of these results, rather than to an extreme on either end.

This is the list of results compiled by Harry Enten (who, incidentally, defines swing as the change from the district's partisan lean):



Source: https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1013418919363858433

(No, I don't think the final margin in November will be D+16.  As I've said elsewhere, I think this is a reasonable upper bound on the likely Democratic margin, with the GCB average as a reasonable lower bound. )

Before 2006 the special election swing average was like D+18, and resulted in a D+7 house vote. The reason that special election swing is correlated to final swing but not particularly predictive of the final margin is that it is a great measure of enthusiasm, but neglects two key factors. First, that there is an incumbent running in most districts (which in and of itself is worth about five points) and second that more people show up to vote in a midterm than just the motivated portion of your base, thus diluting the influence of an enthusiasm gap (though obviously not erasing it in any way).

Based on the special election performance I think a prediction of D+16 is very silly, even as a ‘ceiling’. There’s no reason to think Democrats will even come close to that unless they have a great campaign cycle and the generic ballot lead opens up a lot wider. Unfortunately such a swing would be impossible to see in special election results because there is only one more prior to November.

Perhaps I should have called the average special swing an "absolute" ceiling.  I do expect the final result to be between that and the GCB average, but much closer to the latter.  For example, with today's GCB average of D+7 and the D+16 average special swing, I'd guess that the November margin is on the order of D+9 or 10.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

My prediction: Cloud wins by 12%

My prediction was wrong, oh well

[Brittain33]

I mean, it would be fair to take from this result some pessimism on Beto O'Rourke's chances, given that he'd need some kind of major shift in Texas voting patterns that might be unexpected Hispanic turnout which didn't show up here.

[Badger]

lol who are you talking to? I didn't.

Yankee is just shouting into the void.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I mean, it would be fair to take from this result some pessimism on Beto O'Rourke's chances, given that he'd need some kind of major shift in Texas voting patterns that might be unexpected Hispanic turnout which didn't show up here.

Well, given that O'Rourke never had a shot at winning in the first place, this really isn't news.

[wesmoorenerd]

I mean, it would be fair to take from this result some pessimism on Beto O'Rourke's chances, given that he'd need some kind of major shift in Texas voting patterns that might be unexpected Hispanic turnout which didn't show up here.

Well, given that O'Rourke never had a shot at winning in the first place, this really isn't news.

Lmao he's down 5 in the latest poll. If being down 5 means you have no shot then we might as well call WV, MT, and MO Safe D at this point.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I mean, it would be fair to take from this result some pessimism on Beto O'Rourke's chances, given that he'd need some kind of major shift in Texas voting patterns that might be unexpected Hispanic turnout which didn't show up here.

Well, given that O'Rourke never had a shot at winning in the first place, this really isn't news.

Lmao he's down 5 in the latest poll. If being down 5 means you have no shot then we might as well call WV, MT, and MO Safe D at this point.

Polling isn't everything, as we learned in 2016.

[Brittain33]

It would be fair to say that there is no modern precedent in Texas that would give us reason to think O'Rourke has a shot at winning.

(Even Alabama, before Jones, had elected a Democratic governor in 1998 who nearly won reelection in 2002.)

[Gass3268]

I mean, it would be fair to take from this result some pessimism on Beto O'Rourke's chances, given that he'd need some kind of major shift in Texas voting patterns that might be unexpected Hispanic turnout which didn't show up here.

Well, given that O'Rourke never had a shot at winning in the first place, this really isn't news.

Lmao he's down 5 in the latest poll. If being down 5 means you have no shot then we might as well call WV, MT, and MO Safe D at this point.

Polling isn't everything, as we learned in 2016.

Polling was fine in 2016.

[ON Progressive]

I mean, it would be fair to take from this result some pessimism on Beto O'Rourke's chances, given that he'd need some kind of major shift in Texas voting patterns that might be unexpected Hispanic turnout which didn't show up here.

Well, given that O'Rourke never had a shot at winning in the first place, this really isn't news.

Lmao he's down 5 in the latest poll. If being down 5 means you have no shot then we might as well call WV, MT, and MO Safe D at this point.

Polling isn't everything, as we learned in 2016.

You would think a forum which is solely dedicated to US elections would stop peddling garbage like this that you see from Youtube comment sections.

I made a post a while ago that "STATEWIDE POLLS WERE OFF A LOT" was mostly not true. I won't quote it here since it's a long list, but just know that the only states with polling errors above 4% were OH (Trump was leading in the polling average anyway), IA (Trump was also leading in the polling average anyway), and WI.